Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog -- Notes From Readers -- April 22, 2019

Updates

April 23, 2019: The Williston Herald says Williams County was #1, not McKenzie County. Fight is on!

Original Post 

This has to be one of the most remarkable things I've seen in twelve years of blogging. There are 3,142 counties and county-equivalents in the US. Hold that thought: 3,142 counties.

As of 2016, there were 3,007 counties, 64 parishes, 19 organized boroughs, 10 census areas, 41 independent cities, and the District of Columbia for a total of 3,142 counties and county-equivalents in the 50 states and District of Columbia.

From ZeroHedge, a site once banned by Facebook:

The U.S. Census Bureau has just released their annual report on how the U.S. population is shifting, and there are some very clear patterns in the data.

At the linked site, a great map showing, by county, where  Americans are leaving and going.

Then in the article itself, Michael Snyder lists the ten counties with the largest percentage increase in population. Seven of the ten counties were in Florida or Texas.

An eighth county was in North Carolina.

That leaves two counties.

Drum roll.

McKenzie County, North Dakota.

Williams County, North Dakota.

Not only did those two counties make the top ten list for counties with the largest percentage increase in population between July 1, 2017, and July 1, 2018, they were ranked ... drum roll ... #1 and #2, respectively. And respectfully.

LOL.

Here's the screenshot:

From the article: 

The top two counties on the list are both in North Dakota, and a lot of people are being drawn up there for energy industry jobs. McKenzie County produces more oil than any other county in the state, and even though it can get bitterly cold, many workers find the very high wages paid by the industry very alluring.

Bitterly cold? Not any more. Global warming has changed everything.

By the way, by 2017 - 2018, the boom was well over; many pundits and media outlets (including The Atlantic) had written the Bakken off - saying the boom was over; the shale revolution was over. Whatever.

A Two-Fer: One Map With Two Stories -- April 22, 2019; Paddlefish Snagging Season Opens May 1, 2019

The map:

The first story, a re-posting:

Road closure: you are on your own --

 "There will be no signed detours posted, and drivers will have to find an alternate route."

The main highway south of Trenton will be closed as of tomorrow morning and will remain closed several days. Routine maintenance on a BNSF railroad crossing south of Trenton -- the Marley railroad crossing -- will take a couple of days. Again,

"There will be no signed detours posted, and drivers will have to find an alternate route."

I think the only alternate is County Road 5 south of State Highway 2. Unless you are riding a horse.

The second story:

North Dakota’s 2019 paddlefish snagging season opens May 1 and is scheduled to continue through May 21. However, depending on the overall harvest, an early in-season closure may occur with a 24-hour notice issued by the state Game and Fish Department.

Legal snagging hours are from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. daily.

One tag per snagger will be issued.

Snagging is legal in all areas of the Yellowstone River in North Dakota, and in the area of the Missouri River lying west of the U.S. Highway 85 bridge to the Montana border, excluding that portion from the pipeline crossing (river mile 1,577) downstream to the upper end of the Lewis and Clark Wildlife Management Area (river mile 1,565).

The current range of American paddlefish has been reduced to the Mississippi and Missouri River tributaries and Mobile Bay drainage basin. Since American paddlefish are filter-feeders, they will not take bait or lures, and must be caught by snagging.

For more on ND paddlefish snagging at the blog, click on "paddlefish."

Main Highway South Of Trenton, ND, To Be Closed For Several Days -- April 22, 2019 -- Earth Day? -- T+10, Part 2 -- Chariots On Fire

Road closure: you are on your own --

 "There will be no signed detours posted, and drivers will have to find an alternate route."

The main highway south of Trenton will be closed as of tomorrow morning and will remain closed several days. Routine maintenance on a BNSF railroad crossing south of Trenton -- the Marley railroad crossing -- will take a couple of days. Again,

"There will be no signed detours posted, and drivers will have to find an alternate route."

I think the only alternate is County Road 5 south of State Highway 2. Unless you are riding a horse.

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Shore Notes

Social security: it's hard to follow the numbers, but apparently by the time I'm in a nursing home, SSA will only be able to pay 80% of benefits. Okay. No link. I'm sure the story is easy to find almost anywhere. SSA puts out an annual report. Will you still love me when I'm 94?

When I'm Sixty-Four, Beatles
Earth Day: I must have missed it. Didn't see a thing. Normally it's a big deal, but apparently not this year -- didn't see the usual folks out picking up trash along the Texas highways. Still using plastic straws at McDonald's and Starbucks.

Chariots on fire. Wow, I haven't used "chariots on fire" in a long time, but apparently Tesla is investigating after a Model appears to catch on fire. Video on the net. No link. I'm sure it's easy to find the story. Model S parked in a covered garage. SpaceX had an anomaly over the weekend also; resulted in a fire with smoke seen from miles around. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

TSLA: down $10.51 (-3.85%) at the close; lost another ... drum roll .. twenty cents in after-hour trading.

Oil (over at oilprice):

• WTI: $65.77
• OPEC basket: $70.81
• Brent crude: $74.04
• Fitzsimmons says much of COP's oil is priced at Brent crude
• Texas Gulf Coast Light: $60.65
• South Texas Light:$55.50
• West Texas Light: not yet trading?
• Williston sweet (four days delay): $53
• Oklahoma sweet (19 hours delay): $61.75

EOG Over-Valued; COP Under-Valued -- Fitzsimmons -- April 22, 2019

From SeekingAlpha:

• Continuing my potential M&A analysis of domestic O&G producers, today, I compare two of America's best: EOG and ConocoPhillips
• From a high-level perspective, it is clear that EOG is valued at a significant premium as compared to COP
• Yet COP realizes ~$8/boe higher pricing due to its conventional assets in places like Alaska and Australia (to name just two)
• Meantime, COP generated more than 3x the FCF as compared to EOG, and production is only 1.7x higher
• In my opinion, EOG is overvalued, and COP significantly undervalued - especially when compared to EOG

Obviously, much more at the link.

Archived.

For the record: I am unaware of anyone who knows the oil sector better than Mike Fitzsimmons. 

NOG Announces Acquisition -- VEN Bakken -- April 22, 2019

Updates

July 2, 2019: NOG -- acquisition closed; VEN Bakken; outperforming prior expectations; highlights:

• Production from the acquired assets is now expected to average approximately 6,650 barrels of oil equivalent (“Boe”) per day in the third quarter of 2019 and approximately 7,000 Boe per day in the fourth quarter of 2019, an increase from Northern’s prior estimate of 6,600 Boe per day (2-stream). 
• The acquired assets now consist of 87.8 net producing wells, an increase of 0.9 net wells, and 4.1 net wells in process, an increase of 1.4 net wells. In addition, Northern now estimates that the acquired assets include an additional 45.6 net undrilled locations of future drilling inventory. 

Original Post

 
Note: prior to acquisition, NOG said to be producing about 36K boepd; this acquisition should add about 7,000 boepd (about 20%).

• NOG market cap prior to acquisition: $1.027 billion
• acquisition may have cost about $300 million  
• debt prior to acquisition: $850 million

Press report, link here.

• 18,000 net acres ($310 million / 18,000 = $17,000/acre; on cash flow, perhaps $15,500/acre)
• 86.9 net producing wells
• 2.7 net wells in process
• 47.5 net undrilled locations
• should average 6,600 boepd (2-stream) during 2H19
• seller: Williston Basin properties of VEN Bakken, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Flywhell Bakken, LLC, a portfolio company of the Kayne Private Energy Income Funds
• assets should generate $44.9 million in cash flow during 2H19; with an estimated 2H19 CAPEX of $15.6 million
• buyer: NOG; $165 million in cash; a $130 million 6% three-year senior unsecured note due 2022 and approximately 5.6 million shares of NOG common stock ($15 million +$165 million + $130 million = $310 million)

On that news, NOG went from slightly "positive" to jumping almost 5% before market close and adding another 3/4 percent after hours.

• April 22, 2019: acquires 18K net acres; $300 million; $17K/acre; if it produces 6,600 boepd as anticipated, that's quite a jump in production
• January, 2019, corporate presentation; 151,978 net acres; 4Q18 mid-point guidance, 35,500 boepd; 3Q18: 26,708 boepd; total proved reserves have increased 79% year-over-year; most of that due to acquisitions; now at 135.5 million boe;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.