Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Parent-Child Wells In The Bakken -- March 5, 2019

When looking at the wells on this page, see The WSJ article regarding "parent-children wells.
Shale companies, adding ever more wells, threaten future of U.S. oil boom. Newer wells drilled close to older wells are generally pumping less oil and gas and could hurt output, leading frackers to cut back on the number of sites planned and trim overall production forecasts.
Re-posting:

A closer look at that MRO Sibyl USA Three Forks well mentioned in NOG's January, 2019, corporate presentation:
  • 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 241K 1/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193141337418132599281403078934
BAKKEN12-20182927195275671985342322040661
BAKKEN11-20183054031539453452380450077300
BAKKEN10-2018318849587749690161186860113630
BAKKEN9-20181029474289882094236373034709

Neighboring well, was a dying "parent" well by 2014, then along with the "children" wells, it was re-fracked in 2018:
  • 17568, 539/5,645, MRO, Charles Shobe-USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, F, 5.7 million gallons water; 45 stages, 5.5 million lbs (7/16/18); original frack was a one-stage open hole frack, one-half million lbs, t2/09; cum 343K 1/19; so, for the price of a small frack, got a "brand new well" with an IP of 5,645;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193136180361651078950286047817
BAKKEN12-20181831554316461090240476038220
BAKKEN11-20181525449253391035630664029203
BAKKEN10-20181838867399892466947393045170
BAKKEN9-20181229459280213283332716032596
BAKKEN8-201810171498098
BAKKEN7-20181100000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-201800710000
BAKKEN4-2018235195175462035672
BAKKEN3-20183170872870897256394
BAKKEN2-201822623645647553451

Not a neighbor, but in the same general area, not refracked; last fracked in 2014, as an open hole frack with one-half million lbs sand:
  • 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 415K 1/19; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2019311150911536147911416268816621
BAKKEN12-2018301379613667289321484481205927
BAKKEN11-201813023007611152969
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-2018203701852510250
BAKKEN7-201827262525825683686331565
BAKKEN6-201830303231666564208382333
BAKKEN5-20183130933179723427019401969
BAKKEN4-201830333132297344524396023
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NOG: January, 2019 -- Corporate Presentation

In anticipation of NOG's earnings, 4Q18, a look at NOG's corporate presentation, January, 2019.

Reminder for newbies: NOG is a non-operator in the Bakken.
  • acres
    • net acres: 151,978 net acres
    • 95% held, 97% held in North Dakota
  • production:
    • 4Q18: mid-point guidance -- 35,500 boepd
    • 3Q18: 26,708 boepd; 84% crude oil
  • big picture
    • enterprise value: $1.920 million
    • market cap: $1.080 billion
  • wells
    • well costs (AFE): $8.0 million
  • EURs
    • 2018 wells tracking over a 1,000 Mboe EUR type curve
  • high quality wells, selected -- name of well, operator, peak 30 (boepd), middle Bakken wells:
    • Liberty 45-1311H, EOG, 1,568
    • Gabriel 1-36-25H, Slawson, 1,376
    • Wold Federal 44-7-4XH, Whiting
    • Shorty 4-9F 3H, Equinor, 1,132
    • Wiley 8-25H, CLR, 2.289
    • EN-Sorenson B-LE-155-94-3526H-1, Hess, 1,448
    • Lars 14-8H, MRO, 1,648
    • Orvis State 150-99-21-16-5H, Newfield, 2,278
    • Faye 1C MBH, BR, 1,421
    • Crane Federal 5300 34-24-12B, 1,327
  • high quality wells, selected -- name of well, operator, peak 30 (boepd), Three Forks wells:
    • Liberty 114-1311H, EOG, 1,476
    • Gabriel 5-36-25TFH, Slawson, 1,355
    • Wold Federal 44-7-1TFH, Whiting, 1,745
    • Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, MRO, 3,746
    • Burr Federal 8-26H2, CLR, 1,013
  • top operators
    • Slawson: 15.1%
    • CLR: 14.2%
    • Whiting: 11.9%
    • Hess: 8.0%
    • COP: 7.4%
    • Oasis: 5.0%
    • EOG: 4.9%
    • XTO: 4.7%
    • Equinor: 3.7%
    • Petro-Hunt: 2.9%
    • MRO: 2.6%
A closer look at that MRO Sibyl USA Three Forks well:
  • 33943, 6,396, MRO, Sibyl USA 44-19TFH, Reunion Bay, t9/18; cum 241K 1/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193141337418132599281403078934
BAKKEN12-20182927195275671985342322040661
BAKKEN11-20183054031539453452380450077300
BAKKEN10-2018318849587749690161186860113630
BAKKEN9-20181029474289882094236373034709

Neighboring well, was a dying well by 2014, then along with the "children" wells, it was re-fracked in 2018:
  • 17568, 539/5,645, MRO, Charles Shobe-USA 44-19H, Reunion Bay, F, 5.7 million gallons water; 45 stages, 5.5 million lbs (7/16/18); original frack was a one-stage open hole frack, one-half million lbs, t2/09; cum 343K 1/19; so, for the price of a small frack, got a "brand new well" with an IP of 5,645;
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20193136180361651078950286047817
BAKKEN12-20181831554316461090240476038220
BAKKEN11-20181525449253391035630664029203
BAKKEN10-20181838867399892466947393045170
BAKKEN9-20181229459280213283332716032596
BAKKEN8-201810171498098
BAKKEN7-20181100000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-201800710000
BAKKEN4-2018235195175462035672
BAKKEN3-20183170872870897256394
BAKKEN2-201822623645647553451

Not a neighbor, but in the same general area, not refracked; last fracked in 2014, as an open hole frack with one-half million lbs sand:
  • 16686, 379, MRO, Shobe 24-20H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 415K 1/19; 
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-2019311150911536147911416268816621
BAKKEN12-2018301379613667289321484481205927
BAKKEN11-201813023007611152969
BAKKEN10-20180000000
BAKKEN9-20180000000
BAKKEN8-2018203701852510250
BAKKEN7-201827262525825683686331565
BAKKEN6-201830303231666564208382333
BAKKEN5-20183130933179723427019401969
BAKKEN4-201830333132297344524396023
 
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API With Surprise: Huge Crude Oil Build -- Over 7 Million Bbls -- March 5, 2019 -- WTI Volatile But Holds Steady

WTI was volatile today but finished flat despite huge crude oil build reported by API. Data points:
another "surprise" build -- most over-used word by economists and analysts: "surprise"
  • API: reported a large "surprise" build of 7.29 million bbls
  • forecast: a build of 388,000 bbls (note the fake precision); 
    • A DOT-111 tank car carries upwards of 830 bbls
    • at 8,000 bbls we're talking ten tank cars; a unit train is 110 tank cars
  • see write-up at ZeroHedge
Disclaimer: I often make simple arithmetic errors. Feel free to fact check.
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Chesto Over At The Boston Globe; Occasional-Cortex Feeling Their Pain -- Already Backpedaling On Amazon; Regrets Being Responsible For Costing NYC 25,000 Jobs -- March 5, 2019

From Chesto over The Boston Globe:
  • Dominion may close Millstone nuclear plant for good a few years from now; long, long story; located in Connecticut; New England's biggest power plant might be forced to close; can't be run economically; the plant plays a role in curbing carbon emissions without requiring an expensive new project to be built; a key component of New England's electricity grid; emergency of cheap natural gas has made it harder for nuclear to compete; competitive pressures prompted Entergy to shut its Vermont Yankee nuke, and its Pilgram reactor in Plymouth goes off line this spring; Exelon was able to "save" Mystic; Exelon could reap as much as $200 million in payments from New England ratepayers annually, over a two-year period that ends in 2024; the wave of plant closures has prompted ISO New England to rethink the way it handles its electricity markets; 
  • Purdue Pharma bankruptcy: the company behind OxyContin is preparing a bankruptcy filing as it seeks to limit its liabilities from hundreds of lawsuits; I think I've blogged about Purdue before;
  • Dreyfus mutual funds with $63 billion in assets will be renamed as BNY Mellon funds; BNY Mellon will keep the Dreyfus name for its money market funds;
  • Instant Pot: the make of Pyrex and Corning War has acquired Instant Pot; Pyrex parent Corelle Brands said it plans to merge with Instant Brands, the Canadian producer of electric multicookers such as the Instant Pot that have taken the Internet by storm.
  • Movers and shakers are talking about the 10-year bull market. Nothing lasts forever. Talk of recession no time soon, but possible in 2020; labor shortage hurting growth in Boston; Massachusetts tax receipts lagging but not yet a big deal; the state has $2 billion in its rainy day fund, thanks in part to a capital gains-related windfall last year.
  • Chesto noted the tumble that GE took today, back below $10/share; industrial division will have negative cash flow in 2019;
  • Target: the retail is on a roll -- sales growth of 5% at stores open at least a year, its strongest same-store growth since 2005; online sales surged 36%; CEO says he is not afraid of Amazon; probably a better way to say it: "we respect Amazon, but we are not afraid of Amazon."
***********************************
Odds and Ends

Over at Powerline, I completely missed this one. I read it quickly; I may have misread it, but apparently the US Supreme Court says that a baker can refuse to bake a cake for anyone he/she chooses. 

Also at Powerline, the folly of solar energy -- a Minnesota tale. Hardly worth posting; preaching to the choir.

From one of the best environmental blogs on the net, Montana:


... and Montana, 79 degrees colder than 1910. I can't make this stuff up.

The wildlife photos at this site are simply incredible. Take some time to explore.

Over at ZeroHedge, it is being reported that Occasional-Cortex is backpedaling; says she now regrets costing NYC 25,000 jobs. I think folks forget how hard Long Island City/NYC worked to attract Amazon, and all the celebrating when NYC was announced as the winner. And then the -- to coin a phrase used by another pundit -- pompous little twit scuttled the deal. If her constituents elect her to a second term, they get what they deserve, or is it, they deserve what they get?

We will quit here but the non-Bakken featured blogs linked at the sidebar at the right are simply some of the best blogs out there.
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Random Look At MRO Wells Recently Fracked -- March 5, 2019

When I see a profile like this, it appears to me that neighboring wells have been fracked. Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN1-20196133413564832130901224
BAKKEN12-20180000000
BAKKEN11-20180000000
BAKKEN10-201814118917022881385606638
BAKKEN9-20182822712321455268923553

Note: prior to coming off line, this was producing about 2,500 bbls/month. When it came back on line, it produced 1,334 bbls in the first six days. Also, below, note the total oil produced so far, over half a million bbls.

The well:
  • 18514, 672, MRO, Howard USA 11-1H, Reunion Bay, t6/10; cum 510K 1/19; 
Now, about those neighboring wells:


The other wells in the graphic:
  • 33665, conf, MRO, WIlkinson USA 11-1H, 33-061-04062, Reunion Bay, 24K produced in first month (unknown # of days); fracked 12/20/18 - 12/29/18; 8.1 million gallons of water;
  • 33666, conf, MRO, Deserly USA 11-1TFH, 33-061-04063, Reunion Bay, minimal production, but producing; fracked 12/20/18 - 12/30/18; 7 million gallons of water;
  • 33667, conf, MRO, Dutton USA 21-1TFH, 33-061-04064, Reunion Bay, no production; fracked 12/10/18 - 12/19/18; 7.3 million gallons of water;
  • 33668, conf, MRO, Fannie USA 21-1H, 33-061-04065; Reunion Bay, no production; fracked 12/10/18 - 12/19/18; 8.4 million gallons of water;
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