Tuesday, February 26, 2019

CLR With Big Plans For The Bakken -- February 26, 2019

From The Williston Herald:
  • Continental expects to nearly double its oil production within the next five years, and expects the Bakken to contribute between 50 to 60 percent of the total growth. 
  • Bakken key to Continental plans to double in size 
  • rigs flat for 2019, but number of wells expected to rise 
One wonders if CLR would be interested in the Helis Grail?

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Leeds

Between 2002 and 2004 the USAF sent me to a remote air base in northern England, Yorkshire County, on many occasions. During those two years, I probably visited Yorkshire a half dozen times. I often flew into Leeds, England, and then took a taxi to the air base.

Tonight while looking up the history of this tune, I see the story begins in Leeds. How interesting.

If you have trouble understanding the English, good news. The video has subtitles.

History of Yellow River

I don't know what it about this song that seems to make it the #1 song I want to hear when I first start surfing YouTube.

Hopefully I live long enough to share this with Sophia. I figure another seven or eight years.

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Something To Consider

Ty Smith -- Modern Renaissance Man.

Addictive.

Clever idea.

But this guy says he's a musician. Amazing how little he seems to have heard when it comes to music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GGNPCgxxvE0.

Mother Nature Is Not Done With Winter Yet -- Didn't That Muskrat Predict An End To Winter, Already? -- February 26, 2019

Wow, when Mother Nature is on a roll, she's on a roll. This is weather, not climate. So, we're not talking about global warming, we're just talking about a very crazy winter.

First it was reported that North Dakota is experiencing the second coldest February on record (and by some measures, the coldest February ever).

Then it was reported that Los Angeles is experiencing the coldest February in 60 years.

And it's not over.

Link here.

If the forecasts for first week of March are verified, one of the coldest weeks of the winter season, compared to normal, is on its way.
At peak, it will feel more like midwinter than early spring for much of the Lower 48.
"The most unusually cold air in the Northern Hemisphere is set to nose-dive into the U.S. to start March," tweeted Ben Noll, an atmospheric scientist based overseas.
What that means on the ground is that large portions of the north-central U.S. could struggle to get above zero, with widespread nighttime lows in the minus-10 to minus-20 range a decent bet in that same region. It's also possible that every state except perhaps Georgia, South Carolina and Florida will face high temperatures at or below freezing during the stretch.
Years ago I remember all those stories about oranges freezing in Florida. I haven't heard those stories in a long, long time. Maybe we're back to "normal."

Link here.


This has to be very confusing for the millennials.

Well, This Can't Be Good -- Oasis -- February 26, 2019

Well, this can't be good:
As a result of the errors noted [below], the Company has identified a material weakness in its internal control over financial reporting.
Accordingly, management will disclose in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018 that its internal control over financial reporting and its disclosure controls and procedures are not effective as of December 31, 2018 and will receive an adverse opinion on internal control over financial reporting as of December 31, 2018 from PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.
In response to the material weakness identified, management has developed a plan to remediate the material weakness, and has begun working on that remediation plan.
In addition, management performed additional analyses and procedures in order to conclude that the Company's consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2018 are fairly presented, in all material respects, in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles.
The errors:
For the quarter ended December 31, 2017, the Company revised the Consolidated Statements of Operations by increasing purchased oil and gas sales and purchased oil and gas expenses by $30.5 million and $30.4 million, respectively, and decreasing oil and gas revenues by $0.1 million.
For the year ended December 31, 2017, the Company revised the Consolidated Statements of Operations by increasing purchased oil and gas sales and purchased oil and gas expenses by $45.6 million and $45.3 million, respectively, and decreasing oil and gas revenues by $0.3 million.
For the quarter ended September 30, 2018, the Company revised the Consolidated Statements of Operations by increasing oil and gas revenues, purchased oil and gas sales and purchased oil and gas expenses by $1.6 million, $126.6 million and $128.2 million, respectively. 
As of December 31, 2017, the Company revised the Consolidated Balance Sheets by increasing both accounts receivable and accrued liabilities by $7.8 million. The amounts presented herein reflect the impact of this revision. 
That was buried deep in the press release. No one is going to see it unless they read every line.

But the good news:
Based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative factors, the Company determined the related impact was not material to its consolidated financial statements, and therefore, amendments of previously filed reports are not required.
Oasis closed at $5.90/share at 4:02 p.m., February 26, 2019, down 3.12% for the day, and remained flat, at $5.90 after hours, at 5:37 p.m.

Oasis earnings statement released February 26, 2019, for 4Q18 and full year 2018.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

Unrelated but of note: this press release from earlier this month:
Former Attorney General of Louisiana, Charles C. Foti, Jr., Esq., a partner at the law firm of Kahn Swick & Foti, LLC, announces that KSF has commenced an investigation into Oasis Petroleum Inc.
On January 2, 2019, The Wall Street Journal reported in an article titled “Fracking’s Secret Problem—Oil Wells Aren’t Producing as Much as Forecast” that, according to a review of available public data on production, many of the Company’s shale wells, specifically those involved in the fracking process, were producing oil and gas at a much lower rate than the Company had forecasted to investors. Further, the report noted that “findings suggest current production levels may be hard to sustain without greater spending because operators will have to drill more wells to meet growth targets.”
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OAS
4Q18 and Full Year


Website here.

Press release.

It's not good news when you have to wade through mountains of data to get to top line and bottom line results but here they are.

New income:
  • 4Q18: $222.0 million
  • FY18: a net loss of $35.3 million
  • adjusted net loss, non-GAAP: $7.3 million or 2 cents/share loss
    • the consensus was for a 4 cent gain, but I don't know if that was GAAP or non-GAAP
  • FY19, non-GAAP income: $79.6 million or 26 cents/share
Someone smarter than I will have to sort this out.

API Weekly Data Shows A "Surprise" Build In US Crude Oil -- February 26, 2019

WTI: recovers. I guess everyone has already forgotten President Trump's tweet of less than 24 hours ago. No, just joking -- it was the weekly API data.

API weekly data: link here. "Surprise" crude oil draw sends oil prices higher. "Surprised" again. I'm shocked. Shocked. Here are the numbers:
  • consensus: a build of 2.82 million bbls
  • actual: in fact, a draw of 4.2 million bbls
Folks, that's a swing of 7.02 million bbls. That's like the golfer leading the tournament playing 3 over and #2 playing 4 under for the day -- a swing of seven strokes. Not trivial. We'll see what the EIA data tomorrow shows.
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Back to the Bakken 

Active rigs:

$55.992/26/201902/26/201802/26/201702/26/201602/26/2015
Active Rigs66574038121

Two new permits:
  • Operators: Bruin, Lime Rock Resources
  • Fields: Tyrone (Williams): Cabernet (Dunn)
  • Comments: 
    • Bruin has a permit for a Borrud well in lot 3, section 1-156-101, Tyrone oil field;
    • Lime Rock has a permit for a State well in section 25-144-97, Cabernet oil field;
And that was all.

EOG And Oasis To Report -- 4Q18 And Full Year 2018

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

EOG: reports after market close today. Consensus: $1.35.

Oasis: reports after market close today. Consensus: 4 cents.

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OAS
4Q18 and Full Year


Website here.

Press release.

It's not good news when you have to wade through mountains of data to get to top line and bottom line results but here they are.

New income:
  • 4Q18: $222.0 million
  • FY18: a net loss of $35.3 million
  • 4Q18: adjusted net loss, non-GAAP: $7.3 million or 2 cents/share loss
  • FY18, non-GAAP income: $79.6 million or 26 cents/share
Someone smarter than I will have to sort this out.

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EOG
4Q18 and Full Year

Link here.  

Revenue:
  • 4Q18 income: $893 million or $1.54/share -- slamming consensus of $1.35 
  • 4Q17 income: $2.4 billion or $4.20/share 
But look at this, full year:
  • 2018: record net income of $3.4 billion or $5.89/share 
  • 2017: $2.6 billion or $4.46/share 
Income:
  • adjusted non-GAAP, 4Q18: $718 million or $1.24/share 
  • adjusted non-GAAP, 4Q17: $401 million or 69 cents/share 
But look at this, again, income:
  • full year, adjusted non-GAAP net income, 2018: $3.2 billion, or $5.54/share 
  • full year, adjusted non-GAAP net income, 2017: $648 million, or $1.12/share
Am I reading that correctly?

From the press release:
  • earns record net income in 2018 generates significant net cash from operating activities 
  • free cash flow exceeds fourth quarter crude oil and NGL production target midpoints 
  • increases proved reserves by 16% 
  • replaces 238% of 2018 production at sub-$10 finding cost 
  • targets improved capital efficiency, significant investment in high-quality new drilling potential and 12-16% U.S. crude oil volume growth in 2019, funded with net cash from operating activities at $50 oil