Monday, February 4, 2019

Norway's Problems -- Won't Amount To A Hill Of Beans -- February 4, 2019

Let's re-write that headline: Norway to see biggest year-on-year increase in production output since the 1980s.

Norway: it's a non-story but Bloomberg is milking it for what it's worth. Link here.
Norway has built a reputation as one of the calmest and most predictable corners of the global oil industry, but lately it’s been full of surprises.
During the worst downturn in a generation, from 2014 to 2016, companies would regularly exceed official forecasts as oil production rose in defiance of falling prices. More recently, with crude surging back to multiyear highs, they’ve run into trouble.
The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate now expects output to fall to a 31-year low in 2019, with production expected to be almost 60 million barrels short of its previous forecast for this year and in 2018. That’s 80,000 barrels a day less than expected.
Bloomberg then looks at "what happened?"
  • maintenance
  • glitches, delays
  • hubris and tiny fields
And then this, but you have to read to the end of the article:
To be sure, the abrupt slump in Norway’s oil production is temporary. The Nordic country will enjoy a spectacular bump in oil production in 2020 thanks to Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup field, which is scheduled to start production in November this year.
With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.
This is one of those stories where the millennial thought she saw a good story but then had to admit:
With as much as 3.2 billion barrels in oil reserves and production of as much as 440,000 barrels a day in its first phase, the giant North Sea field should in 2020 contribute to the biggest year-on-year increase in Norway’s output since the 1980s.
I was mislead also some months ago when I fell for the "31-year" headline.

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The Art Page 

Spuds.

Sophia drew a cartoon a few weeks ago to "record" her two days in ski school and her one day of skiing with her Dad at Angel Fire, east of Taos, New Mexico, this past Christmas.






It should be noted that her legs/skis are straight downhill; parallel; and, proportionate to her body size; compare with her dad.

I found the drawing among some discarded paper when we got home. I do not know who annotated the drawing; it was not me; that's not my handwriting and it's not Grammy's. It looks like it might have been Olivia's printing.

Morning Note: February 4, 2019

The wall: tea leaves suggest negotiators have found a solution. 

OPEC: oil princes are fighting for survival. Good luck. 

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Back to the Bakken

Wells coming off the confidential list today: data posted here.

Active rigs:

$53.632/4/201902/04/201802/04/201702/04/201602/04/2015
Active Rigs64584044140

RBN Energy: part 3, structural shifts propel US gas demand. Even more so after the polar vortex. Archived.
Lower-48 natural gas demand surged in 2018, managing to offset ballooning production volumes and putting the gas market on the razor’s edge going into this winter.
Demand growth occurred across all domestic sectors as well as export markets, but was led by increased demand from power generators.
Some of that was weather-related. However, there also was a level-shift up in demand on a per-degree basis, meaning more gas was burned than historically at the same temperatures, signaling a gain in gas market share. What were the drivers, and can we expect this growth pace to continue? Today, we take a closer look at the demand components behind the recent growth trends.
The Lower-48 gas supply-demand balance in 2018 was especially tight. The combination of the tighter balance and an enormous deficit in storage compared with 2017 and the five-year average had the market unsettled going into the coldest months of this winter. At the time, we looked at the annual average balance for the January-November period in 2018 versus the prior years going back to 2010.

Initial Production Numbers For Wells Coming Off Confidential List Has Been Posted; Sixteen Wells; Four DUCs -- February 4, 2019

Monday, February 4, 2019: 18 wells for the month; 120 wells for the quarter
  • 34455, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-3, Capa, no production data,
  • 34454, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-2, Capa, no production data,
  • 34349, SI/NC, XTO, Walton Federal 41x-19F2, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 34249, SI/NC, BR, Raider 1B MBH, Twin Valley, no production data,
  • 34200, 2,236, CLR, Norway 6-5H2, Fancy Buttes, t11/18; cum 55K 12/18;
  • 34045, SI/NC, MRO, Gudmon 44-35TFH, Bailey, no production data,
  • 29999, 550, Slawson, Shakafox 4-28-21MLH, Big Bend, producing, look how old this permit is, t11/18; cum --
Sunday, February 3, 2019: 11 wells for the month; 113 wells for the quarter
  • 35107, 37, Resource Energy Can-Am, Haugland 2116-163-98 1H, Blooming Prairie, a Madison well; t8/18; cum --;
  • 34769, 572, Liberty Resources, Martin C 158-93-11-2-3MBH, Enget Lake, t8/18; cum 62K 12/18;
  • 34456, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-4, Capa, no production data,
  • 34348, SI/NC, XTO, Walton Federal 41X-19BXC, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 34044, drl, MRO, Rafter X 44-35H, Bailey, no production data,
  • 33020, 505, EOG, Fertile 84-0701H, Parshall, a very nice well;  t8/18; cum 103K 12/18;
  • 33019, 1,341, EOG, Fertile 85-0701H, Parshall, a very nice well for a Fertile well; t8/18; cum 102K 12/18;
Saturday, February 2, 2019: 4 wells for the month; 106 wells for the quarter
  • 34457, drl, Hess, CA-E Burdick-155-95-2017H-5,  Capa, no production data,
  • 33021, 1,062, EOG, Fertile 86-0701H, Parshall, t8/18; cum 91K 12/18;

Good Morning -- I'll Be Caught Up In A Few Minutes -- February 4, 2019


Sunday, February 3, 2019