Wednesday, January 30, 2019

January 30, 2019 -- T+28, Part 2, Day 5 Of Open Border Negotiations

Cold: a note for the granddaughters.

When I was growing up in the northwest corner of North Dakota it was "normal" to expect February to be the coldest month of winter, and generally it never got above zero degrees (32 degrees below zero) for the entire month, day or night. Above zero degrees it was relatively nice.

Once it got below minus ten degrees it really didn't matter how cold it got. It all felt the same. I find it interesting that I really don't remember the cold weather. Sort of like hearing that women don't remember childbirth. (I doubt that's entirely true.)

For the most part, it was very, very cold in February in North Dakota, but it was dry, no precipitation (no snow). Because it was below freezing from the get-go (as they say), from December on, and because it didn't "rain" in the winter in North Dakota, we did not have any problem with "black ice" or any color ice for that matter -- except icicles, which were not a problem but just something interesting to watch.

I remember, vividly, how warm our houses and stores were. I never thought about where that energy came from; we were very, very fortunate that when I was growing up, energy was dispatchable, available, and affordable. It is interesting to look back that we never, never, never had a power outage during the middle of the winter. The utilities, I suppose, MDU and REA, did an incredible job.

Disclaimer: I had a summer job with MDU the summer between my freshman year and sophomore year at college. Wow, I was treated well. Dad got me the job; he had connections. Was it fair that he got me the job through his connections? Probably. I've always felt a little bit guilty about that, but on the other hand, he was paying for my college and he was looking out for himself as much as he was looking out for me. Life is not fair.

Time for some music.

The Class of '57, The Statler Brothers

If there is any song that "defines" my growing up in Williston, that was it.

Where was I? Oh, that's right: cold, utilities, no power outages.

What I enjoyed most watching out the front window during the coldest stretches: the one or two (cedar or Bohemian) waxwings that would flit in among the "evergreen" hedges along the house. How they survived the winter, I will never know. I don't recall throwing out birdseed for them. My hunch is that Mom did not have the extra "pin" money to buy bird feed. I would have been five or six years old. My brother would have been in the playpen that was placed in front of the picture window; it seems we always had a playpen in our living room when I was growing up.

Now, one of my favorite things to do every morning before I take Sophia to school -- put out a couple slices of bread and lots of wild bird seed on the patio outside her window. I put two pair of binoculars on the window sill which she really enjoys. The highlight of the morning is when a pair of cardinals show up.

Wow, what a digression.

Again, for the granddaughters.

List of birds found in North Dakota. At the link, I did not see any reference to "snow birds." Those are the birds that fly to Phoenix every winter.

US Crude Oil Inventories Week-Over-Week Change: Flat -- January 302, 2019

Link here.

Data points:
  • weekly US crude oil inventories: flat -- inventories increased by 0.9 million bbls from previous week
  • weekly US crude oil inventories: 7% above five-year average and the five-year average continues to trend upward
  • WTI: up about 1.75%; trading right at $54
  • imports: interesting -- imports were down by 1.1 million bopd from the previous week; not trivial
  • imports: averaging about 7.7 million bopd, 4.5% less than the same four-week period last year
  • refineries operating at 90.1% capacity -- it will be interesting to hear analysis of this; I don't know why but this is very, very, very low
  • gasoline and distillate production "in line"
  • jet fuel supplied was down about a percent
Gasoline demand spikes: link here.

*********************************
South Korea's US Energy Picture

Data points, link here:
  • South Korea: world's fourth-largest oil importer
  • 2018: 
    • US exported almost 60 million bbls to South Korea 
    • US exported almost 5 million tons of LNG to South Korea
    • US has become South Korea's sixth-largest supplier overtaking Iran (sanctions) and Russia
    • US is South Korea's third-largest LNG supplier
    • South Korea is now the US' largest LNG customer 
  • 2019:
    • the numbers will increase
********************************
The Book Page


Equinor's Knoshaug Wells Have Been Completed

Equinor's Knoshaug wells in Avoca oil field have been completed, reported, and are producing nice wells.

***************************
What Condition Is My Condition In?

Google search: bakken oil January 2019.

A very, very "generic" search.

First five hits:
  • the first three: themilliondollarway
  • the fourth and fifth hits: Zacks


What Condition Is My Condition In? Kenny Rogers and the First Edition

Super Bowl, best quotes from The Big Lebowski. #11 was posted earlier. Today, #10, #9, and #8:
  • 10. This aggression will not stand.
  • 9. It really tied the room together.
  • 8. It's Sandro, about Biennale.
*********************************
The Book Page

A History of the Arab Peoples: Albert Hourani, c. 1991.

The path of the mystics, p. 72:

The science and theology, law and tradition all began with what was given in the Qur'an, and ended by reinforcing the claims of Islam and heightening the barrier between it and the other monotheistic religiosn to which it was kin. There were other strands of thoughts, however ...
One of them was that line of thought and practice which is commonly called "mysticism"; the Arabic equivalent to this word is tasawwful (from which comes the anglicized form Sufism) possibly derived from the robes of wool (suf) which one of the early groups was supposed to have worn.

It is no generally agreed that it drew its inspiration from the Qur'an. A believer meditating on its meaning might be filled witha  sense of the overwhelming transcendence of God and the total dependence of all creatures on Him: God the all-powerful, the inscrutable, guiding those who had faith in Him, for all His greatness was present and near to every human soul which relied on Him, "nearer to you than the vein in your neck."

The Qur'an contains potent images of the nearness of God to man, and the way in which man can respond. Before the world was created, God is said to have made a covenant (mithaq) with human beings. He asked them, "Am I not your Lord?" and they answered, "Yes, we testify."

[Do I hear an "amen"?]

In his life Muhammad is said to have made a mysterious journey, first to Jerusalem and then to Paradise, where he was allowed to approach to a certain distance from God and have a vision of His face.

*************************
Connecting the Dots

I don't think it's all that hard to connect these two dots recently in the headlines:

  • it is now legal in New York for non-physicians to "end the life" of a delivered, living newborn if the "plan all along was to abort that fetus"; and, 
  • the plan to remove "so help you God" from a congressional oath
If the end-all and be-all is simply what we have in the "here and now" that's sort of where we end up. 

Later: Virginian tries to "out-do" New York on abortion. A Virginia legislator is advocating for post-delivery abortion. I guess the mom gets a chance to look at the live born and then decide if she wants the baby to live. Sort of reminds me of the stories from the classical Greek and Roman era. Link here. 

January 30, 2019 -- T+28, Part 1, Day 5 Of Open Border Negotiations

Weather. Wow, I'm really embarrassed. After all that talk about how cold it was going to be in north Texas -- nope. For roughnecks, it is shirtsleeve weather down here; for the rest of us, a sweater or jacket. Absolutely beautiful weather. The "polar vortex" apparently got hung up at the Oklahoma/Texas state line. It will reach 53 degrees today and by the end of the week back in the mid-70s.

Regular unleaded gasoline: $2.89 on the way to Starbucks this morning (DFW area).

WTI: wonderful -- oil just went over $54. Up 1.37%; up 73 cents; now trading at $54.04. Nice to see. 

NOG: up slightly, trading at $2.505.

AAPL: up 4%; up about $6; trading at $161. Well down from its highs but a pretty good earnings report ... considering.

Disclaimer: I am Apple Fanboy #3.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decision based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Maps. Wow, if you like interactive maps, you will love the Bloomberg look at how American uses its land (surface land). Link here. Enjoy. Sort of interactive, I guess.

Race to the bottom. From Victor Davis Hanson. Not for snowflakes. Link here.  It begins:
We are currently witnessing a quite strange series of North Korean–like reeducation confessionals, from repenting erstwhile liberals and now presidential hopefuls such as Joe Biden, Tulsi Gabbard, Kamala Harris, and Kirsten Gillibrand. They and other would-be candidates parade before show cameras to apologize for their prior incorrect heresies, including their erstwhile support for drug laws, tough sentencing, and border enforcement.
By the way, there's a reason Kamala Harris has gotten out in front with "Medicare For All." But we'll wait on that.

Scott Adams: wow, when he gets off politics and into a) public health policy; b) medicine; c) global warming, he often comes off as an idiot. His arguments on persuasion and politics are interesting but once he gets off-topic -- wow, he starts to lose it. 

January 30, 2019 -- Midland Crude Sells At A Premium To WTI -- RBN Energy

Wells coming off confidential list -- yet to be reported --
Wednesday, January 30, 2019: 101 wells for the month; 101 wells for the quarter
  • 34199, 1,981, CLR, Norway 7-5H1, Fancy Buttes, t10/18; cum 15K over 9 days;
  • 34006, 2,161, CLR, Radermecher 6-22H1,  Camel Butte, a huge well, 43K in one month; the Radermecher wells are tracked here; t9/18; cum 85K 11/18; one month with 43K;
  • 34003, SI/NC, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-5,  Banks, no production data,
  • 33985, 940, Oasis, Dawson 5494 43-12 11T, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 93K 11/18;
  • 33983, 784, Oasis, Dawson 5494 43-12 9T, Alkali Creek, t9/18; cum 71K 11/18;
  • 33537, SI/NC, CLR, Holstein Federal 15-25H1, Elm Tree, producing, albeit very little,
  • 31988, SI/NC, Petro-Hunt, Anderson 152-96-35D-26-1HS, Clear Creek, no production data,
Tuesday, January 29, 2019: 94 wells for the month; 94 wells for the quarter
  • 34002, SI/NC, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-4, Banks, no production data,
  • 34001, SI/NC, Hess, SC-1WX-152-99-0809H-3, Banks, no production data,
  • 33969, 1,077, Enerplus, Steel 147-93-09D-04H-TF, Moccasin Creek, a nice well; the "heavy metal" wells are tracked here; t8/18; cum 95K 11/18;
Active rigs:

$53.841/30/201901/30/201801/30/201701/30/201601/30/2015
Active Rigs64573845146

RBN Energy: Midland crude supply crunch squashes West Texas spreads.
The market is used to crude oil spreads in the Permian Basin being volatile. Fast-paced production growth, the addition of new takeaway pipelines — and the rapid filling of those new pipes — have all impacted in-basin pricing, and we’ve seen differentials from the Permian to its downstream markets — Cushing, OK, and the Gulf Coast — widen and narrow as supply and demand fundamentals have changed. But recently, things have gotten a lot wilder. In September 2018, the Midland discount to WTI at Cushing blew out to almost $18/bbl, then narrowed to less than $6/bbl only three weeks later, thanks largely to the start-up of Plains All American’s much-ballyhooed, 350-Mb/d Sunrise Expansion. As Sunrise started to fill up, price differentials initially widened for a brief period of time. But, as we kicked off 2019, the Midland-Cushing spread quickly shrank further and then flipped, with Midland last Friday (January 25) trading at a $1/bbl premium to Cushing crude. You might wonder, how the heck did that happen? In today’s blog, we discuss how things play out when abundant supply dries up like a prune and traders are suddenly caught in a tight market. Archived.


Posted previously:

************************
Benchmarks

Much, but not all, information below comes from wiki. See also this link, and also here. But this is probably the best site.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a light, sweet crude oil produced in the United States that is priced at the crude oil trading hub of Cushing, Oklahoma. WTI is used as a benchmark for other types of crude oil produced in the United States, such as Mars, a medium, sour crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico, and Bakken, a light, sweet crude produced in North Dakota. WTI is also used as a benchmark for imported crude oil that is produced in Canada, Mexico, and South America.
WTI

  • A wide variety of benchmark crude oils worldwide are considered to be light. The most prominent in North America is West Texas Intermediate (WTI):
  • API gravity of 39.6° API; lighter than Brent, but not by much
  • sulfur: 0.24% (sweet oil is defined as oil with sulfur content less than 0.5%)
Brent Crude
  • "basket" changed in early 2017 due to older fields depleting
    • Platts will add Norway's Troll to the basket of four British and Norwegian crude grades which is already uses to assess dated Brent from January 1, 2018
    • this will join Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, or BFOE as they are known
    • Troll: a light, sweet crude; operated by Statoil (also contributes to the Oseberg, Statfjord, Gullfaks, Grane and Asgard streams)
  • the most commonly referenced benchmark oil from Europe is Brent Crude, which is
  • 38.06° API
Dubai Crude
  • the third most commonly quoted benchmark is Dubai Crude, which is 31° API
  • this is considered light by Arabian standards but would not be considered light if produced in the U.S.
*******************
Others

Saudia Arabia's Ghawar field:
  • the largest oil field in the world, Saudi Arabia's Ghawar field
  • light crude oils ranging from 33° API to 40° API (see above; most would consider Saudi oil to be medium/heavy; and sour
Alaska North Slope: from XOM -- 
  • 31.4°
  • sulfur: 0.96%
Bakken:
36 to 44 degrees API. The quality of this oil is excellent, almost identical to WTI. The benchmark crude oil is West Texas Intermediate, which is 40 degrees API sweet crude. It is the benchmark because it requires the least amount of processing in a modern refinery to make the most valuable products, unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel.
North Dakota Spearfish: 36°
Mexico: generally heavy to medium-light; sulfur content
  • Isthmus: 21.8°.3.3% sulfur
  • Maya: 33.4°; 1.35% sulfur
  • Olmeca: 37.3°; 0.84% sulfur
Iraqi: heavy oil
Crude oil found in Iraq varies significantly in quality, with API gravities generally ranging from 22° (heavy) to 35° (medium - light).
Over 70% of national oil reserves are below 28° API  and the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted in its 2012 report on Iraq that future production is likely to include a larger share of heavier crudes. However some of the crudes produced at the Taq Taq field in the norther semi-autonomous Kurdistan region are as light as 48° API, dubbed by Reuters as "champagne crude." See Taq Taq here.  
California: heavy oil; pdf here -- old data, from 2004, but type of oil probably has not changed
  • Kern County: heavy oil with 1.2% sulfur; accounts for 75% of California's on-shore production
  • Los Angeles Basin: heavy oil; sulfur content 1.7% to 2.0%
  • Off-shore: intermediate for the most part, 18° (heavy) to 36° (medium-light)
Ecuador: heavy oil; 24.1°
Seeks low-sulphur, light oil, September 1, 2015:
Net crude exporter Petroecuador issued a tender to import 30 million barrels of light sweet crude over the course of a year in an attempt to maximize diesel and gasoline production when its Esmeraldas refinery comes back online in the fourth quarter, market sources said Tuesday.

Petroecuador is seeking 30 million barrels of low sulfur crude oil with an API gravity of 28 degrees to be delivered in a one-year period, according to a tender issued late Monday.

The state-owned oil company is seeking the barrels "in order to optimize the Esmeraldas refinery operations, once the revamping has been complete," the tender said. 
Venezuela: heavy oil, similar to Canadian oil sands.