Friday, January 4, 2019

Active Rigs Falling Quickly In The Bakken As Winter Sets In; Any Doubt MRO Is The Operator Of The Year 2018 -- See Today's Results -- January 4, 2019


Most interesting item in that banner: China and US looking to end the trade war. Apple, most likely, sent shock waves through the Chinese government. The country cannot afford to have millions unemployed, especially when so many are young men. 

Active rigs:

$47.961/4/201901/04/201801/04/201701/04/201601/04/2015
Active Rigs63544059171

Nine new permits:
  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: East Fork (Williams); Banks (McKenzie)
  • Comments: CLR has permits for a 6-well Chloe pad in 20-156-99; CLR also has permits for a 3-well Jamestown Federal pad in 17-152-99;
Two permits renewed:
  • BR: one Ole permit in McKenzie County
  • Whiting: one Whiting permit in McKenzie County
Nine producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34203, 3,137, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-7, Blue Buttes, t--; cum --; #16957; #18271;
  • 34202, 3,050, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-6, Blue Buttes, t12/18; cum --; #16957; #18271;
  • 34201, 3,153, Hess, BB-Chapin-151-95-0506H-5, Blue Buttes, t11/18; cum 12K over 6 days -- are you kidding? extrapolates to 59K over 30 days; #16957; #18271;
  • 34732, 2,008, CLR, Pasadena 8X-11H1, Banks, t11/18; cum 30K over 23 days;
  • 34668, 6,640, MRO, Drake 44-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 41K over 20 days which extrapolates to 62K over 30 days; #17999; #17374;
  • 34666, 6,012, MRO, Northrop 34-16H, Jim Creek, t11/18; cum 34K over 23 days;
    #17999; #17374;
  • 34892, 5,851, MRO, Gloria 24-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 57K over 38 days; #17999; #17374;
  • 34667, 5,713, MRO, Veddy 44-16H, Jim Creek, t10/18; cum 90K over 38 days --
    PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
    BAKKEN11-20181731893318943758728884434522342
    BAKKEN10-2018215818857857865324835952143976
  • 29690, 1,745, SC-Bingeman-154-98-0904H-6, Truax, t11/18; cum 7K over 8 days; #29688, #29690, #29689, #29687;

T+59 -- January 4, 2019

Notes From All Over

AGW: wow, if this is AGW -- bring it on. A great day today here in north Texas, and tomorrow's forecast to be 70 degrees; loving every minute of it. Just think, without AGW, it would be 69.75 degrees. 

Syria: This is pretty funny. The tea leaves suggest the mainstream media and leaders around the world agree with Trump's decision to pull the US out of Syria. Even Pocahontas agrees it was the right thing to do. General Mattis is starting to look a bit like a spoiled general officer who did not get his way.

SecDef? An interesting choice is making the rounds.

National emergency: I wonder what judge would rule against a president declaring a national emergency to close the border/build the wall? And if so, how the US Supreme Court would rule? Makes one wonder if a governor can unilaterally declare, on a whim, an emergency and request federal aid?

War Powers Act? I bet there are a dozen White House lawyers studying that act as well as the US Constitution. What if the government says the US is being attacked by organized foreign agencies? It's well known the hordes are being organized and paid. From wiki: it is generally agreed that the commander-in-chief role gives the President power to repel attacks against the United States. What constitutes an "attack"?

Redundant: that's the British term for non-essential personnel working for non-essential bureaucracies. Makes one wonder why they are on the payroll in the first place. So far, we've got trash in some national parks and that's about it. What's the budget for the non-essential bureaucracies?

Best line of the day: after Occasional-Cortex posts video of her dancing, Scott Adams asks when Beto in  a V-neck sweater will share his own dancing video but then, most cleverly, Scott Adams says Elizabeth Warner will risk rain if she dances. If you miss the joke, let me know. 

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Word for the Day

Caparison.

Quick! Without looking it up, guess the definition (unless, of course, you are from Albuquerque and then you already know the answer). 

Caparison Guitars here.

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The Literary Page

Wow, wow wow ... the second of two volumes, The Letters of Sylvia Plath, Vol 2: 1956 - 1963, edited by Peter K. Steinberg and Karen V. Kukil, c. 2018, is now available in the local library. Wow. The foreword is by Sylvia's daughter, Frieda Hughes, s/2018.

From the "feel" of the book, I think I am the first to one to have touched this particular book, except, of course, for the librarian and a few others along the supply chain.

The preface, of course, is by the editors, also s/2018.

The introduction is fourteen pages long. The letters themselves take up 969 tightly-printed pages. The index is a full 55 pages in small pitch.

Most precious, perhaps, are the mother-baby pictures of Sylvia and Frieda.

There are two photos which include Ted Hughes. Ted always reminds me of Hugh Hefner for some reason. Hughes seems to have been very, very tall; I doubt Hefner was quite that tall.

Volume 1 in this two-volume set: 1940 - 1956, early days of her marriage.

Volume II: 1956 - 1963. The first letter was written the day after Plath's twenty-fourth birthday, 27 October 1956; the last letter was dated 4 February 1963, a week before Plath's death at the age of 30 ,about seven years of letters, numbering 575, to 108 recipients.

There are sixteen letters written to Ted Hughes shortly before their marriage and honeymoon, while fourteen later letters to her psychiatrist chart the disintegration of that marriage in "harrowing detail," according to the editors.

Later: I've read the introduction, preface, foreword; the chronology, etc. I've read many of the letters, skimmed through the rest. I read, perhaps, the most important of her letters to her psychiatrist when her marriage was dissolving. I continued to read the letters but as I got closer to the end of 1962, I could not read any more. I did not read her last letters; not of her letters in late 1962 or any of her letters in 1963. She died February 11, 1963.

The British winter of 1963 was the coldest on record up to that time.  JFK would be assassinated later that year.

Re-Balancing? Ain't Gonna Happen At This Rate -- January 4, 2019

Link here. EIA data --
  • US crude oil inventories: unchanged from previous week
  • US crude oil inventories: 441.4 million bbls
  • refinery operating capacity jumped to 97.2%
  • from the report: "Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels per day, up by 1.6% from the same period last year."
  • distillate fuel supplied was up almost 4% compared to last year
  • jet fuel production, interestingly, slumped; down over 12% compared to same four-week period last year
  • gasoline production slightly below the 10-million-barrel threshold 
  • distillate production slightly above the 5-million-barrel threshold
  • all things being equal, WTI should have remained unchanged after the report
  • so let's see what happened: up a dollar and now trading slightly above $48
  • maybe that's why NOG jumped today
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, relationship decisions based on anything you read at this blog or what you think you may have read at this blog.

Re-balancing?

Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.9
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.5
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.2
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.0
Never at this rate
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.5
Never at this rate
Week 5
December 28, 2018
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate
Week 6
January 4, 2019 12:00 AM
0.0
441.4
Never at this rate

Natural gas fill-rate/withdrawal: link here.



T+59 -- January 4, 2019

From an earlier note:
Re-posting: LSD. Story here. Silicon Valley (?) getting ready to do "formal"testing. We talked about this earlier this year.

Three-page essay in the current issue of The London Review of Books, by Mike Jay, in his review of two new books:
  • How to Change Your Mind: The New Science of Psychedelics, Michael Pollan, May, 2018
  • The Science and the Story of the Drugs That Changed Our Minds, Lauren Slater, February, 2018
My hunch: marijuana is soooo yesterday.
Now this, today, from NBCNewYork:
In the past three years, Google searches for the term “microdosing” have tripled, and books and articles on the subject are exploding.
Microdosing is described as taking an imperceptible dose of an illegal psychedelic drug, typically LSD, MDMA or Psilocybin, more commonly known as magic mushrooms. It’s a fraction – roughly a tenth -- of a full hallucinogenic dose that would cause a high.
"It’s just been a constant upward trend, constantly on the rise," said a drug dealer who spoke with News 4 New York's I-Team on the condition of anonymity. 
The dealer creates "microdoses" by taking psilocybin or "magic" mushrooms, grinding them to a powder and pressing them into pills that are a fraction of a full hallucinogenic dose. He said that it’s a growing group of people turning to street drugs and that they are looking for anything but a high.
As noted back on September 29, 2018, marijuana is soooo yesterday. With the Dems back in control of the US House we might see some movement in the micro-dosing story -- if they weren't so tied up with impeachment.

Pretty Blue Eyes, Steve Lawrence
 
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Pet Peeve
 
Middle-aged "rich" women (age 23 - 43 years old) coming into Starbucks with ripped jeans. That was so yesterday. Call me sexist. Whatever. Actually, I don't see similar male attire any more.

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The Book Page

I'm only on page 59 of 109 East Palace: Robert Oppenheimer And The Secret City Of Los Alamos, Jennet Conant, c. 2005, but it's a winner of a book. 

If you are at all interested in the Manhattan Project and have not read this book, I highly recommend it.   

My notes, in progress, are at this post. I generally take notes on any book I read for the first few chapters, and then leave it at that.

A Huge Shout Out To Readers -- January 4, 2019

Pardon the interruption.

I've noticed a few more typographical errors than usual (spelling errors) -- thank you for not sending me those typos -- if I find them I will correct them, but there's no need to report them unless they make a huge difference.

One of my worse spelling errors: "now" for "not" as in:
"They are now doing something" when it should be "They are not doing something."
In a case like that, I need to know to correct it.

On the other hand, if I make "factual" errors, that's a different story. Let me know if I've made a factual error -- it's sometimes hard to tell "factual" data from my opinions. Factual errors are generally of two types: a broken/"wrong" link; or an arithmetic error. 

Other than that, things seem to be going well with the blog. At least for me. 

Again, this is not an investment site. I blog about the Bakken to help me better understand it. I've learned a lot from the readers and greatly appreciate comments that help explain the Bakken. I generally do not get into other discussions or post comments unrelated to the Bakken.