Thursday, October 18, 2018

Boston Is Going To The World Series -- 2018

.... vs LA Dodgers or the Milwaukee Brewers.
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SRE's 30-Second Elevator Speech -- October 18, 2018

There are a gazillion utilities "out there." I've held different utilities in my investment portfolio over the years, for various reasons. Generally I buy and accumulate shares in utilities for the long haul. There are notable exceptions.

Two utilities of the gazillion "out there" are currently on my radar scope. One has been in my portfolio for decades; the other has only recently appeared on my radar scope.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

SRE and D.

I might talk about "D" some other day.

Today, SRE over at SeekingAlpha. It is a "nine-page" internet article. I did not read past the first page. I read (past tense) no more than the following and will not go back and read any more of the transcript:
As you recall in June, we announced our strategic vision to become North America's premier energy infrastructure company. We're also committed to executing a disciplined and phased approach to optimize our asset portfolio around what we believe are the most attractive markets right here in North America. In that regard, Oncor and its operations in Texas provide a solid foundation to build on and advance that strategy.
Oncor and Sempra entered into agreements to acquire InfraREIT in a 50% interest in Sharyland respectively. We’re actually quite excited about this Texas T&D transaction for several reasons. First it expands the transmission and distribution platform we created in Texas when Sempra acquired its interest in Oncor back in March.
Second, it adds another avenue for growth through incremental pure play regulated transmission opportunities and Texas is an attractive market where we’re currently seeing over 70 gigawatts of solar and wind and interconnection queue.
Third, it’s a great opportunity to recycle proceeds from the recently announced sale of our U.S. solar portfolio. In fact that's what allows us to do this transaction without issuing any equity. And fourth, it allows us to further increase the percentage of Sempra's earnings from our long-term T&D businesses and strengthens our credit profile while offsetting the slight dilution resulting from the sale of Sempra Renewables business and storage assets.
That's all I need to know. 

It's the company's 30-second elevator speech.
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Geo-Fossil-Fuel-Politics: Under Previous Administration, The US Conceded Future Fossil Fuel Arctic Exploration To Others -- October 18, 2018

Today it's being reported that Saudi Arabia is more than happy to fill that vacuum. Oilprice.com is reporting:
Now that global oil markets have gotten used to Saudi-Russian oil production cooperation that first hit the scene in early 2017 in an effort to reign in global price concerns, it now appears that the two fledgling allies are also going to cooperate in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector. And this time too, it looks as if the alliance could take aim at U.S. energy ambitions.
The kingdom’s media savvy energy minister Khalid Al-Falih said at the India Energy Forum in Delhi on Monday that Saudi state-owned Saudi Aramco is open to the idea of marketing some of the LNG from the proposed Russian Arctic LNG 2.
“Aramco has the mandate to go global and not only invest in downstream but also invest in gas and LNG. We have looked at projects in Africa and the Mediterranean, and of course the Arctic with some Russian companies, Novatek. The idea is that Aramco will trade that [LNG] globally and bring some of that to India and other markets,” Al-Falih said.
Murder in the consulate? What murder? That's so yesterday. 

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Poll: Should Trump Close US-Mexico Border ...
... Before/After The Mid-Term Elections

Updates

October 19, 2018: I suggested that a couple of well-placed phone calls would stop this. It is now being reported, but not confirmed, and has not been reported widely in the mainstream media yet, but apparently the mass of Hondurans -- which just reached the southern border of Mexico this past week -- is now disbanding and turning back. More to follow.

Original Post

This is very interesting. Binary thinking.

First binary choice: is the massing of Honduran "families" serious enough for the president to do something brash? Yes/No

President Trump is accused of being very brash. He comes across in word (tweet/rallies) as being very brash, but from my perspective he has been much more measured. His bark is louder than his bite is serious. So, for him to unilaterally close the US-Mexico border would be perhaps the most "brash" thing he has done.

If one feels he should not be so brash as to close the border then we move on. No poll. Nothing to see here.

But if the president (or it appears, John Bolton) sees this as a serious enough issue to do something as brash as closing the border, then it's a binary choice: close the border before the mid-term elections or close the border after the us mid-term elections.

From my perspective, regardless of whether it's the "right" thing to do or not, the anti-Trumpers would jump on this as a brash act by the president. Like the Kavanaugh circus, the merit of the decision would not be the issue. The "definition" and "defining" of "brashness" would become the issue. The issue may affect the Cruz-O'Rourke race. And not necessarily in a good way. As things stand, Cruz should win by at least a small margin. If Trump does something brash, Cruz might win by a bigger margin (so what? a win is a win regardless of the margin; ask Brett); if folks see Trump as being brash, then Cruz might lose by a narrow margin. Oh-oh.

Others will disagree. Others see the Cruz-O'Rourke race as a too-close-to-call and a brash act by Trump would cement a win for Cruz.

I think Trump could get just as good a response from Mexico if he personally spoke with the president, while at the same time sending the US SecState to visit the Mexican ambassador to the US, making it very clear, the border is closed the day after the election if the Mexican government does not stop the mass migration.

So, ignoring the question of whether the issue is serious enough for the president to take serious action, should President Trump close the border before the mid-term elections, or the day after the mid-term elections.

The poll is at the sidebar at the right.

The Heidi Heitkamp - Kevin Cramer debate is tonight. I think one will be able to tell how Heidi's internal polling is trending based on how she answers the questions. If she says she has brought huge bi-partisan support to the US Senate ...

*****************************
Polling

It will be interesting to see the overnight polling.

Most recent poll at this link:

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For Newbies: Good Example Of What We Mean By The "Right" Kind Of Oil -- October 18, 2018

Over at oilprice.com. China can't get enough of Canada's heavy oil -- at a $50 discount from WTI. But it's not just the price. It's also the "right" kind of oil -- the kind of oil China needs:
China’s two other main sources of heavy crude—Australia and Venezuela—are both going through a production decline albeit for different reasons.
While the Venezuela situation is clear and unchanged, Australian heavy crude production has been on the decline due to natural depletion. In fact, Woodside, the operator of the field that produces one of its benchmark heavy grades, Enfield, plans to stop pumping oil at the field by the end of this year.
Currently, there is also the seasonal factor of construction: Chinese refiners use a lot of the heavy crude they import for the production of asphalt, to be used in road construction, under Beijing’s large-scale infrastructure plans. But even after this seasonal high, chances are Chinese refiners, state and teapots alike, will continue to take advantage of the low price of Canadian crude.
There are no signs that the pipeline situation in Canada will change anytime soon. There are also no signs that production growth will begin to slow. Canadian producers are pretty much in the same position as their U.S. counterparts with the exception of the difference in prices. They need to pump more because they have debts to repay and businesses to keep afloat.
that Chinese companies had bought three cargoes of Canadian heavy crude, to load in Vancouver in November. More will follow: the huge discount of Western Canadian Select to WTI is not the only reason for this shift. The other reason has to do with supply. China’s two other main sources of heavy crude—Australia and Venezuela—are both going through a production decline albeit for different reasons.
If it weren’t for the hefty discount to WTI, the shipping costs would have remained too high to be attractive for Chinese refiners.
Note that another source of "heavy oil" seems to be drying up.
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ERF's "Cloudy" Pad

Updates

December 3, 2020: four ERF "Cloudy" wells came off confidential list today:

  • 35595, SI/A, Enerplus, Lenticular 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 205K 10/20;
  • 35598, SI/A, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 170K 10/20;
  • 35599, SI/A, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 212K 10/20;
  • 35600, SI/A, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 178K 10/20;

Original Post

ERF's cloudy pad:

  • ERF has permits for a 7-well "cloudy" pad in lot 2 section 1-148-95.
Existing wells:
  • 24164, 898/IA, ERF, Nimbus 149-94-33D-28H, Eagle Nest, 29 stages; 7.4 million lbs, MB about 90 feet thick?, t4/13; cum 287K 11/19; off line 12/19; remains off line 10/20; cum 320K 12/22;
  • 24163, 759, ERF, Cirrus 149-94-33D-28H, Eagle Nest, 28 states; 6.5 million lbs, t4/13; cum 302K 6/20; off line late 2019; back in production, 3/20; huge jump in production; halo effect; off line 9/20 but might be coming back on line as of 10/20; cum 356K 12/22;
New permits:
  • 35594, SI/A-->1,414, Enerplus, Fog 149-94-33C-28H-TF-LL, Eagle Nest, cum 164K 4 months; t--; cum 253K 10/20; a 53K month; fracked 1/1/20 - 1/22/20; 6.4 million gallons of water; 57.96 percent water by mass; see completion strategies at the sidebar at the right; see "Fog" data here; cum 384K 12/22;
  • 35595, SI/NC-->1,627, Enerplus, Lenticular 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 205K 10/20; cum 309K 12/22;
  • 35596, SI/NC-->conf-->SI/A-->1,318, Enerplus, Stratus 149-94-33C-28H- TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 202K 10/20; the Enerplus Cloudy pad is tracked here;Enerplus, Stratus 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, fracked 1/1/20 -- 1/21/20; 6.35 million gallons of water; 58.96% water by mass; cum 377K 12/22;
  • 35597, SI/NC-->920, Enerplus, Cumulus 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 217K 10/20; cum 356K 12/22;
  • 35598, SI/NC-->1,031, Enerplus, Vapor 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 170K 10/20; cum 291K 12/22;
  • 35599, SI/NC-->1,177, Enerplus, Haze 149-94-33C-28H, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 141K 4.5 months; cum 212K 10/20; cum 325K 12/22;
  • 35600, SI/NC-->490, Enerplus, Alto 149-94-33C-28H-TF, Eagle Nest, t--; cum 124K 4.5 months; cum 178K 10/20; cum 301K 12/22;

"Families" of wells are linked here.

Early production.    

35596:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2020313281532599260376593361722984
BAKKEN9-2020282354623673232604379141069706
BAKKEN8-2020282782427728239444198339867835
BAKKEN7-202031255092548725745000
BAKKEN6-2020171413714103153301870917696424
BAKKEN5-2020261827918427230642152220282548
BAKKEN4-2020302401123883271352617525063720
BAKKEN3-20202931208310933423031208297261358
BAKKEN2-2020541944112742041953746438

35600:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020241909519081199782526723941573
BAKKEN5-2020312819128273300303300731120846
BAKKEN4-2020302623026053280032855427340787
BAKKEN3-2020302787828149322992787826911851
BAKKEN2-20201722956225074063522957205022348

35599:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020292811727921196453703335033844
BAKKEN5-2020262290923027165762683225345687
BAKKEN4-2020292508424963173782735226196753
BAKKEN3-20203034055344352447034083329211022
BAKKEN2-20201730544299463388430544272783122

35598:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-20201087678764104591155010997263
BAKKEN5-2020191320313356200391551414701396
BAKKEN4-2020302072820654288012263421674622
BAKKEN3-20202932590327333665232590312931168
BAKKEN2-20201717927175763674217927160111831

35597:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020272177921710186112877527239653
BAKKEN5-2020312661626635167963109929317798
BAKKEN4-2020302029620233133722217421233609
BAKKEN3-2020293315733563237543321132087995
BAKKEN2-20201731540309223384231540281673256

35596:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
5-20201842720282
4-20202388325063
3-20203109329726
2-202041123746

35595:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020302203821983131912913427583661
BAKKEN5-2020262840628594162163333131473852
BAKKEN4-20203034187339771751437238356551026
BAKKEN3-20202939806397631967739806380151631
BAKKEN2-202091069410485104341069595511112

35594:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2020302946729332156693903236912884
BAKKEN5-2020272902828979136173683934960871
BAKKEN4-20202934581346482198740917393241037
BAKKEN3-20202952789537174688653963521661584
BAKKEN2-202081828616668162201795817360549

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