Saturday, October 13, 2018
Global Supply / Global Demand -- Twin Peaks -- October 13, 2018
Important enough to re-post.
From the Rigzone article linked below -- petrochemicals are becoming the largest oil demand drivers.
Link to original article here.
Link here. Rigzone staff.
From the Rigzone article linked below -- petrochemicals are becoming the largest oil demand drivers.
Link to original article here.
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Twin Peaks
Oil Demand / Oil Supply Closing In On New Records
Link here. Rigzone staff.
Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon.
“Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now. In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere,” the IEA said in a statement published on its website Friday.
“In future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome,” the IEA added.
“There is no peak in sight for demand either. The drivers of demand remain very powerful, with petrochemicals being a major factor,” the IEA continued.
The IEA said it is an “extraordinary achievement” for the global oil industry to meet the needs of a 100 (MMbpd) market but announced that twin peaks for demand and supply have been reached “by straining parts of the system to the limit”.See STEO report that follows -- sent in my reader.
*************************
From A Reader Regarding EIA's Latest STEO Report
New STEO is out today (October 10, 2018):
- added 914 data for JUL (10.96 reported, higher than previous estimate of 10.78 from last month STEO)
- estimates for AUG and SEP revised up from high 10s to low 11s
- 2018 average revised slightly up (from 10.66 to 10.74).
Comment from reader:
Note that the peak oilers and shale haters, just a month and a half ago
were crowing about how US production was stuck and how EIA was too
optimistic (when we had a couple flat months). They were saying we
would be lucky to average 10.5 for the year, that it was impossible to
hit an average of 10.6-10.7, and that EIA would be forced to revise
estimates down soon. Instead we are well on track to hitting 10.7, no
problem, and the revisions are going up, not down.
Comment from reader:
Almost a replay of what happened last year with production catching up
after a flat period...but the peak oilers never learn...every time we
slow for a couple months, they come out of the cracks...
From STEO:
- 2019 average estimate revised up very significantly: from 11.5 to 11.8 MM bopd.
Comments from the reader:
- My personal guess: The EIA is still estimating a little low.
- The oil companies in the Permian will "adapt and overcome" and get those Permian barrels out.
- We will exit 2018 (DEC month) at 11.5 (very doable, less than 0.1 million growth per month for rest of year).
- I think 2019 will be explosive, probably backweighted (as pipes start opening).
- We could exit the year at 13 million bopd (little higher than 0.1 million bopd/month.)
- "We" might just north of 12 million bopd for 2019 (given the big growth is towards second half of the year).
With
regard to getting those Permian bbls out: there are already reports the
pipes are coming on-line faster than originally expected/forecast.
Oasis' Newest Natural Gas Processing Plant On Line -- October 13, 2018
Link at Bismarck Tribune. Discussed many times on the blog.
Link here. Rigzone staff.
The big stories.
The Trump years. At 20 months, a list of Trump's 289 accomplishments.
I hope this article is never lost. Link here. Original article here. I may archive it. It's that good.
I haven't linked it yet; easy to find. "Statement" by Susan Collins why she voted to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh will go down as one of the best speeches ever given by any politician in the US.
It is interesting to compare "composure" of past presidents when under duress with the "composure" of President Donald Trump.
He may be the most honest president in US history, some say.
Marc Thiessen: Trump could be the most honest president in modern history. The blogger app won't link this article.
I don't think folks realize how "angry" Chuck Grassley was after torpedoed by Diane Feinstein. He was angry, but he did not get "mad." There's a fine line between "angry" and "mad." But he did not get mad; he got even.
The blogger app won't link this article.
Link here.
- Oasis Wild Basin II
- 200 million cf/d
- first major plant to be completed in recent years in the Bakken
*****************************
Twin Peaks
Oil Demand / Oil Supply Closing In On New Records
Link here. Rigzone staff.
Both global oil demand and supply are now close to new, historically significant peaks at 100 mb/d, and neither show signs of ceasing to grow any time soon.
“Fifteen years ago, forecasts of peak supply were all the rage, with production from non-OPEC countries supposed to have started declining by now. In fact, production has surged, led by the US shale revolution, and supported by big increases in Brazil, Canada and elsewhere,” the IEA said in a statement published on its website Friday.
“In future, a lot of potential supply could come to the market from places like Iran, Iraq, Libya, Nigeria and Venezuela, if their various challenges can be overcome,” the IEA added.
“There is no peak in sight for demand either. The drivers of demand remain very powerful, with petrochemicals being a major factor,” the IEA continued.
The IEA said it is an “extraordinary achievement” for the global oil industry to meet the needs of a 100 (MMbpd) market but announced that twin peaks for demand and supply have been reached “by straining parts of the system to the limit”.See STEO report that follows -- sent in my reader.
*************************
From A Reader Regarding EIA's Latest STEO Report
**************************
From A Reader Regarding EIA's Latest STEO Report
New STEO is out today (October 10, 2018):
- added 914 data for JUL (10.96 reported, higher than previous estimate of 10.78 from last month STEO)
- estimates for AUG and SEP revised up from high 10s to low 11s
- 2018 average revised slightly up (from 10.66 to 10.74).
Comment from reader: Note that the peak oilers and shale haters, just a month and a half ago were crowing about how US production was stuck and how EIA was too optimistic (when we had a couple flat months). They were saying we would be lucky to average 10.5 for the year, that it was impossible to hit an average of 10.6-10.7, and that EIA would be forced to revise estimates down soon. Instead we are well on track to hitting 10.7, no problem, and the revisions are going up, not down.
Comment from reader: Almost a replay of what happened last year with production catching up after a flat period...but the peak oilers never learn...every time we slow for a couple months, they come out of the cracks...
From STEO:
- 2019 average estimate revised up very significantly: from 11.5 to 11.8 MM bopd.
Comments from the reader:
- My personal guess: The EIA is still estimating a little low.
- The oil companies in the Permian will "adapt and overcome" and get those Permian barrels out.
- We will exit 2018 (DEC month) at 11.5 (very doable, less than 0.1 million growth per month for rest of year).
- I think 2019 will be explosive, probably backweighted (as pipes start opening).
- We could exit the year at 13 million bopd (little higher than 0.1 million bopd/month.)
- "We" might just north of 12 million bopd for 2019 (given the big growth is towards second half of the year).
With regard to getting those Permian bbls out: there are already reports the pipes are coming on-line faster than originally expected/forecast.
With regard to "peak oilers and shale haters," that would include Art Berman.
With regard to "peak oilers and shale haters," that would include Art Berman.
**************************
A List Of President Trump's 289 Accomplishments
The big stories.
The Trump years. At 20 months, a list of Trump's 289 accomplishments.
***********************
The End Of Smugness
I hope this article is never lost. Link here. Original article here. I may archive it. It's that good.
****************************
Susan Collins
I haven't linked it yet; easy to find. "Statement" by Susan Collins why she voted to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh will go down as one of the best speeches ever given by any politician in the US.
**************************
Embattled
It is interesting to compare "composure" of past presidents when under duress with the "composure" of President Donald Trump.
He may be the most honest president in US history, some say.
Marc Thiessen: Trump could be the most honest president in modern history. The blogger app won't link this article.
********************************
Don't Get Mad, Get Even
I don't think folks realize how "angry" Chuck Grassley was after torpedoed by Diane Feinstein. He was angry, but he did not get "mad." There's a fine line between "angry" and "mad." But he did not get mad; he got even.
Chuck Grassley, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, wants the upper house to stay in session until all of the 49 currently pending judicial appointments are confirmed.
A tweet from Grassley, R- Iowa, on Thursday came just hours after the committee cleared eight more judicial nominees to the full Senate ,and puts Democrats in a bind over whether to stay in Washington to fight the confirmations or head out on the campaign trail to defend vulnerable seats ahead of the midterms.
Trump wants the three vacancies on the 9th Circuit to be filled by conservatives against the wishes of Kamala Harris and Diane Feinstein.
The blogger app won't link this article.
*********************************
ICE Union Has Had Enough Of This Mayor
Link here.
The union that represents Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents has asked the Oregon Department of Justice to conduct a criminal investigation into Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler. They want Wheeler, who is the city’s police commissioner, to relinquish his supervisory authority over the Portland Police Bureau.
“We believe that Mr. Wheeler has committed the crime of official misconduct,” stated an Oct. 3 letter sent by Sean Riddell, a Portland-based attorney representing the union. “Our attempts to compel Mr. Wheeler to take reasonable action correct and/or cease his criminal activity have been unsuccessful.”
During an extended protest outside of a south Portland ICE facility over the federal government’s family separation policy along the U.S.-Mexico border, Wheeler said he would not use city police resources to break up the protest.
The letter states that after June 20, when Wheeler declared he didn’t want the Portland Police Bureau “sucked into a conflict” with a federal agency he disagreed with, the crowd around the Portland ICE office grew.
Riddell claims that Wheeler didn’t enforce several city ordinances and state laws, including disorderly conduct, riot, harassment, and prohibited camping on public property and public rights of way.
Rambling On A Saturday Night -- Nothing About The Bakken -- October 13, 2018
The Apple page: this is really, really cool. After years of rumors it appears that Apple is about to release an iPad without the 3.5 mm headphone jack. Finally. Here's the link.
From Jeremy Bernstein's 2013 A Palette of Particles.
1928: Paul Dirac produced an equation for the electron that united the quantum theory with Einstein's theory of relativity. Wow.
Some people think this is the most beautiful equation in theoretical physics.
There was only one problem: and Dirac saw it. The equation produces four solutions, but only two made sense at the time. The other two equations gave the electron a negative energy -- impossible.
This led to a couple of years of what Pauli called "desperation physics" before a solution was arrived at: antimatter. Wow.
The challenge: to prove that antimatter exists.
Solution: use a cyclotron to produce a positron (an electron with negative energy). Problem: that was more energy than any existing cyclotron could provide.
Solution: build a cyclotron big enough to do this.
Result: the Bevatron -- a billion electron volts which would slam one proton into another proton, producing one antiproton and three protons. How one gets three protons and one antiproton from two protons is perhaps a discussion for another day.
Ernest Lawrence, the inventor of the cycloton (in general) raised the money to build the Bevatron at UC Berkeley. It went into operation in 1954, and was built at a slightly "smaller scale" resulting in ability to generate barely enough energy to do what the theoretical physicists wanted it to do.
One year later, 1955, physicists announced they had discovered the antiproton. And antimatter.
Ernest Orlando Lawrence was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics 1939 for the invention and development of the cyclotron and for results obtained with it, especially with regard to artificial radioactive elements.
Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree, Tony Orlando & Dawn
A worldwide hit the year I graduated from college.
Orlando, by Virginia Woolf, 1928, a transgender novel.
Notes regarding my cross-country trip, Dallas/Ft Worth area to Flathead Lake, Montana, October 4, 2018 - October 12, 2018, at these posts.
Jeep Compass: now that I'm back to driving my 2012 Honda Civic.
Of course, no one except fourteen people in the entire world use the 3.5 mm headphone jack but "everyone" is now coming out of the woodwork (again) to complain about Apple removing this jack. [There hasn't been a similar jack in the iPhone for ages and we've all done just fine.]
Folks are trying to tell us that purists use the 3.5 mm headphone jack for their high end headphones that cost thousands of dollars. What a joke. That may or may not be true, but wireless relays are used by rock bands all over the world for that very reason.
*******************************
The Physics Page
From Jeremy Bernstein's 2013 A Palette of Particles.
1928: Paul Dirac produced an equation for the electron that united the quantum theory with Einstein's theory of relativity. Wow.
Some people think this is the most beautiful equation in theoretical physics.
There was only one problem: and Dirac saw it. The equation produces four solutions, but only two made sense at the time. The other two equations gave the electron a negative energy -- impossible.
This led to a couple of years of what Pauli called "desperation physics" before a solution was arrived at: antimatter. Wow.
The challenge: to prove that antimatter exists.
Solution: use a cyclotron to produce a positron (an electron with negative energy). Problem: that was more energy than any existing cyclotron could provide.
Solution: build a cyclotron big enough to do this.
Result: the Bevatron -- a billion electron volts which would slam one proton into another proton, producing one antiproton and three protons. How one gets three protons and one antiproton from two protons is perhaps a discussion for another day.
Ernest Lawrence, the inventor of the cycloton (in general) raised the money to build the Bevatron at UC Berkeley. It went into operation in 1954, and was built at a slightly "smaller scale" resulting in ability to generate barely enough energy to do what the theoretical physicists wanted it to do.
One year later, 1955, physicists announced they had discovered the antiproton. And antimatter.
Ernest Orlando Lawrence was awarded the Nobel Prize in Physics 1939 for the invention and development of the cyclotron and for results obtained with it, especially with regard to artificial radioactive elements.
A worldwide hit the year I graduated from college.
Orlando, by Virginia Woolf, 1928, a transgender novel.
******************************
Notes For The Granddaughters
Notes regarding my cross-country trip, Dallas/Ft Worth area to Flathead Lake, Montana, October 4, 2018 - October 12, 2018, at these posts.
- first note upon returning home
- second note upon returning home
- photos only: moving gravel
- nirvana: not much posted
- video only: kayaking
- Yellowstone National Park
- first note about planned trip
Jeep Compass: now that I'm back to driving my 2012 Honda Civic.
- the new go/no-go or start/stop app that will be required on all cars by 2020 is going to really catch Americans by surprise, and they are not going to like it; it feels that this was designed/initiated by advocates of EVs
- dashboard displays: old 2012 Honda Civic much better than 2018 Jeep Compass
- much better visibility from the Honda Civic;
- rear view very limited
- poor visibility over/behind left shoulder
- visibility to right and behind not good
- everything seemed to be slightly delayed: switches, lights, acceleration from standing start
- very poor range: in my 2012 Honda Civic, I could easily get 500 miles on a tankful of gas; in the Jeep Compass, it seemed I was filling up every couple of hours;
- 2012 Honda Civic: still get 40 mpg when cruising (although I cruise more slowly in my Honda than in the Jeep)
- 2018 Jeep Compass: best mpg was about 31 mpg and generally well below 30 mpg
- "driveability" -- I enjoyed driving both, but the Honda Civic seems to be a lot more fun; snappier; smoother
- MSRP; mileage
- Jeep Compass: from $21,595; 23/32
- Honda Civic: from $18,940; 32/42
- Nissan Rogue: from $24,800; 26/33
- in the refrigerator out at Flathead Lake, an opened jar of pickled herring with "sell by" date of December, 2017
- on October 9, 2018: no discoloration; tasted just fine; no ill effects 24 hours later
- Grapevine, TX, to Lakeside, MT
- route: Amarillo, Denver, Cody (WY); Yellowstone National Park; Missoula; Lakeside
- Lakeside, MT, to Grapevine, TX
- route: Missoula; Salt Lake City bypass to Provo, UT; back roads over Soldier Summit; Price, UT; Green River, UT; Arches National Park; Moab, UT; Cortez, NM; Shiprock, NM; Bloomfield, NM; Albuquerque, NM; Amarillo; Grapevine
Global Warming Hits North Dakota, October 13, 2018 -- Seventeen Inches Of Snow Fall On Grand Forks AFB
Remember Pat Kennedy telling us the Kennedy kids would never see snow again. Well, it's been ten years, and there's been more snow than ever.
Link here.
Link here.
- over 17 inches of snow fell in parts of eastern North Dakota during a Wednesday snowstorm
- Grand Forks Air Force Base recorded 17.4 inches and had snow drifts as high as 33 inches
- nearby cities recorded well over a foot of snowfall underneath the band of heavy snow
- he region's farmers say the snow will push back the harvest of their crops, which was already delayed by October rains
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