Thursday, July 26, 2018

A Reader Requests An Opinion -- July 26, 2018

For various reasons, I don't want to be more specific with regard to this issue.

A reader inherited mineral rights in one of the areas marked with an oval and labeled, A - E.

The other areas, numerically identified, are there for comparison.


The reader wanted to know whether:
  • it was likely the operator would be drilling any time soon in those areas, A - E
  • for areas A- E would be it better: holding for the royalties in the future, or selling now for cash, and forgoing future royalties (i.e, sell or hold)
My thoughts:
  • the area is northeast of Williston and has been seen to be a fairly good location, perhaps not as good as the best Bakken but certainly quite nice areas: East Fork, Stony Creek, Epping
  • each of those areas, in fact, from my point of view, have been great oil fields -- not something I would easily give up
  • the reader should note that an operator currently has a rig on #34465,  ]in the immediate area -- which suggests to me that operators are going to continue drilling this area
  • without mentioning the name of the operator the reader mentioned, I can say that of all the operators in the Bakken, I would be happy with this operator
  • daily activity reports suggest operators are getting more aggressive (rather than less aggressive) drilling in the Tier 1 locations in the Bakken) with the price of WTI trending up; and, choke points in the Permian making the Bakken look more attractive than the Permian
Every individual's situation is different.

My advice:
  • anecdotally, it's been my experience that folks who have sold their mineral rights in the Bakken, later regret it;
  • if one needs the money now, and has no heirs, selling the mineral rights might be the right thing to do;
  • if one does not need the money now, and has no heirs, I would still probably keep the mineral rights;
  • if one does not need the money now, and has heirs, I would definitely keep the mineral rights;
  • as the operator gets closer and closer to drilling this area, the offers to buy the mineral rights will increase and the offers will get better;
  • the reader should look at the production profiles of the recently drilled wells (permits in the 3XXXX range);
  • I am pretty confident that at some point, in each 1280-acre drilling unit, there will be:
    • a minimum of 6 middle Bakken wells
    • a minimum of 12 Three Forks wells, spread among the three upper benches
  • operators drilling in the Bakken these days generally have an expectation of EURs of one million bbls/well, certainly in the areas noted above.
I'm curious what others might think.

Reply anonymously in the comment section or directly to my e-mail address which can be found at the sidebar at the right.

Disclaimer: one has to assume that all readers who respond are simply providing an opinion and cannot be held "liable" for their advice. I don't see this as anyone, including me, giving any advice, simply giving an opinion.

*******************************************
The Ledecky Page
or
How Can The AP Get Such A Simple Story So Screwed Up?

Katie Ledecky wins her second of two events.

Yesterday (Wednesday), Katie took first in the 800-meter freestyle.

Just minutes ago it was reported that Katie won the 200-meter freestyle.

200-meter freestyle (note this was from the linked AP site -- completely messed up):
  • Katie takes first, 1:55.82 -- that is the second-fastest time in the world in this event; Katie holds the world record which she set last month, at a time of 1:54.66
  • second place was won by three-time Olympian champion Allison Schmitt, clocking in at 1:54.60
Obviously the linked AP story has errors; waiting for corrections. [Wow, the AP story really appears to be "screwed up." See below, from SwimSwam].

Later: it looks like SwimSwam has it correct, regarding the 200-meter freestyle:
  • world record is held by Federica Pellegrini, 1:52.98, set in 2009 (if accurate Katie does not hold the record as stated above; confirmed at wiki)
  • today:
    • Katie Ledecky, first at 1:54.60 (which would be better than her June time of 1:54.66 if that is accurate from the story above)
    • Allison Schmitt, second at 1:55.82

Number Of Active Rigs Continues To Trend Down; Slawson Reports A Huge Completed DUC, As Does MRO -- July 26, 2018

Active rigs:

$69.54→7/26/201807/26/201707/26/201607/26/201507/26/2014
Active Rigs63603373193

Seven new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (6); Kraken Operating
  • Fields: Blue Buttes (McKenzie); Painted Woods (Williams)
  • Comments: Hess has permits for a 6-well BB-Federal pad in SENE 8-151-95;
Twenty-four permits renewed:
  • Petro-Hunt (13): a Joel Goodsen permit; two Dudley Dawson Federal permits; one Lloyd Christmas permit, the first three in McKenzie County; the Lloyd Christmas permit in Stark County; three Chip Diller Federal permits in McKenzie County; five USA permits in McKenzie County; a Robert The Bruce permit in McKenzie County;
  • Oasis (4): two Jensen permits, and an O.M. Erickson permit, all in Williams County;
  • Crescent Point Energy (3): one Legacy Et Al Berge permit in Bottineau County; one CPEUSC Lloyd and one CPEUSC Elena permit, both in Williams County; and, an Erickson permit in Burke County3303
  • Sinclair (2): one Olson Federal permit in Dunn County; a Porcupine permit in Dunn County
  • Thunderbird: one Frank permit in Stark County
  • Whiting: one Wright permit in McKenzie County
One permit canceled:
  • Resonance Exploration: a Resonance R.E. Ballantyne permit in Bottineau County
Four producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 24521, 1,628, Slawson, Gabriel 7-36-25TFH, North Tobacco Garden, t6/18; cum --
  • 33032, 693, BR, State Veeder 2B-UTFH, Blue Buttes, t6/18; cum --
  • 33033, 756,  BR, State Veeder 2C MBH, Blue Buttes, t6/18; cum --
  • 33580, 3,276, MRO, McFadden 14-11H, Bailey, t6/18; cum -- (#17498)
Finally, still one more SM Energy well transferred to Petro-Hunt.

August, 2018, NDIC Hearing Dockets Have Been Posted -- I Will Post The Summary Later

The NDIC hearing dockets for August, 2018, have been posted. Link here.

Dockets are posted at the NDIC site here.

Dockets are tracked here. 

The usual disclaimer applies. As usual this is done very quickly and using shorthand for my benefit. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. Do not quote me on any of this. It's for my personal use to help me better understand the Bakken. Do not read it. If you do happen to read it, do not make any investment, financial, job, relationship, or travel plans based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. If this stuff is important to you, and I doubt that it is, but if it is, go to the source.

Highlights in bold.


Wednesday, August 22, 2018
  • 26799, BR, Pershing-Bakken, suspend, revoke legalese against Abraxas, McKenzie
  • 26800, BR, North Fork-Bakken, suspend, revoke legalese against PetroShale, McKenzie
  • 26801, Kraken Operating, Ellisville-Bakken, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; one well each, Williams County
  • 26802, Kraken Operating, Ellisville and/or Rainbow-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well; Williams
  • 26803, Kraken Operating, Rainbow-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; one well, Williams County
  • 26804, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken and/or Robinson Lake-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Mountrail
  • 26805, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, two wells on one overlapping 2560-acre unit; establish an overlapping 3200-acre, two wells; Mountrail County
  • 26806, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, amend, establish four overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells on  each unit; Mountrail County
  • 26807, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, amend; i) establish six overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells each; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; two wells on the unit; iii) terminate two overlapping 2560-acre unit; Mountrail County
  • 26808, Whiting Sanish-Bakken and/or Robinson Lake-Bakken, i) establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; ii) establish an overlapping 3840-acre unit; two wells; Mountrail County
  • 26809, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, amend, 0_ establish four overlapping 1920-acre units; two wells; ii) establish four overlapping 2560-acrre units, two wells; iii) establish one overlapping 3840-acre unit; two wells each; Mountrail County
  • 26810, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, amend, i) establish three overlapping 1280-acre units, two wells each; ii) establish four overlapping w560-acre units; two wells; each; iii) establish one overlapping 3840-acre unit, two wells on the unit; iv) terminate five overlapping 2560-acre units; Mountrail
  • 26811, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken and/or Parshall-Bakken, amend, i) establish six overlapping 1920-acre units, two wells each; ii) establish four overlapping 2560-acre units, two wells each; iii) establish two overlapping 3840-acre units, two wells one each unit; Mountrail County
  • 26812, True Oil, North Branch-Red River, re-establish spacing for the pool establish a 320-acre unit, or alternatively establishing a 320-acre unit, one vertical well; McKenzie County
  • 26813, True Oil, Bowline-Bakken, i) terminate two laydown 1280-acre units; ii) establish two standup 1280-acre units; seven hz wells on each spacing unit; McKenzie
  • 26814, True Oil, Bowline-Red River, establish a 320-acre unit, one vertical well McKenzie County
  • 26815, True Oil, Bowline-Red River, establish a 320-acre , one vertical well; McKenzie County
  • 26816, SWD
  • 26817, Oasis, SWD
  • 26818, BR, commingling
  • 26819, Whiting, commingling
  • 26820, Whiting, Sanish-Bakken, 5 wells on a laydown 640-acre unit; Mountrail, McKenzie;
  • 26821, Hess, commingling,
  • 26822, Hess, commingling,
  • 26823, Hess, pooling,
Thursday, August 23, 2018
  • 26824, NDIC, consider higher bond amounts for Scout Energy, Wiley-Glenburn Unit, Bottineau County,
  • 26825, ditto, but for Northeast Foothills-Madison Unit, Burke County
  • 26826, North Range Resources, temporary spacing for oil/gas discovered by Beta Race Federal well, #15167, Billings
  • 26827, NDIC, alter spacing units in Cedar Coulee or Oakdale-Bakken, Dunn County
  • 26828, CLR, Banks-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit, two wells, McKenzie County
  • 26829, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, establish an overlapping 3360-acre unit; one well; McKenzie, Mountrail
  • 26830, CLR, Sanish-Bakken, amend, a single well; McKenzie, Mountrail
  • 26831, Liberty Resources, East Tioga-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 1280-acre spacing units, 8 wells on each; Mountrail
  • 26832, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, establish two overlapping 1280-acre units; 8 wells on each, Mountrail
  • 26833, Sinclair, Lone Butte-Bakken; terminate one 2560-acre unit and replace it with two 1280-acre units; 7 wells on each;
  • 26834, RimRock, Heart Butte-Bakken; amend; establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; Dunn County
  • 26835, RimRock, South Fork-Bakken, amend, establish two overlapping 2560-acre units; two wells on each unit; Dunn County
  • 26836, RimRock, McGregory Buttes-Bakken, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells on the unit; Dunn County
  • 26837, Zavanna, Patent Gate-Bakken, amend, establish an overlapping 2560-acre unit; two wells; McKenzie;
  • 26838, NP Resources, Tree Top-Bakken, establish two standup 1280-acre units; 4 wells on each unit; Billings County
  • 26839, NP Resources, Magpie-Bakken, 4 wells in an existing 1280-acre unit; also, establish a new 1280-acre unit for four wells; Billings County
  • 26840, NP Resources, Buckhorn-Bakken, 4 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; establish three new 1280-acre units; four wells on each; Billings County
  • 26841, NP Resources, Cinnamon Creek, Pierre Creek, and Buckhorn-Bakken, dissolve two existing undeveloped 1280-acre units; expand the Cinnamon Creek Field boundary; establish three standup 1280-acre units for four wells each; McKenzie County
  • 26842, CLR, pooling
  • 26843, CLR, pooling,
  • 26844, CLR, Brooklyn-Bakken, two wells on an existing 2560-acre unit; Williams county
  • 26845, CLR, Banks-Bakken, 16 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie;
  • 26846, WPX, commingling
  • 26847, Newfield, pooling
  • 26848, LIbery Resources, pooling
  • 26849, Liberty Resources, pooling
  • 26850, Liberty Resources, Enget Lake-Bakken, 8 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Mountrail County 
  • 26851, Liberty Resources, pooling
  • 26852, Liberty Resources, pooling
  • 26853, RimRock, Heart Butte-Bakken, i) 14 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; ii) 3 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit; iii) 2 wells on an existing 2560-acre unit; Dunn County
  • 26854, RimRock, South Fork-Bakken, i) 11 wells on two existing 1280-acre units; ii) 15 wells on an existing 1280-acre units; iii) 3 wells on an existing 2560-acre units; Dunn County
  • 26855, RimRock, Moccasin Creek-Bakken; 3 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; Dunn County
  • 26856, Zavvana, Poe-Bakken, 2 wells on an overlapping 2560-acre unit; McKenzie County
  • 26857, BNN North Dakota, SWD,
  • 26858, NP Resources, Rough Rider-Bakken, 4 wells on an existing 1280-acre unit; McKenzie County
  • 26859, PetroShale, pooling

New Poll Pending -- Stay Tuned -- July 26, 2018

Taking down the poll in which we asked whether you would like to have President Trump extend credits for EVs?
  • yes: 11% 
  • no: 89%
New poll: your guess -- first estimate of 2Q18 GDP.

Quick! For Bakken Newbies, What's Equinor? -- July 26, 2018

Choose among the following:
  • the chief valkyrie living deep inside Valhalla
  • second in command to Darth Vader; a transgender and thus the name ("Equi-")
  • former name of Statoil  
  • the last name of Putin's translator, short for Equinatsky
  • one of the many My Little Ponies, the greenish-purple one
Why am I asking? A reader sent me the link to this press release:
Ambyint, the emerging player in AI-powered artificial lift and production optimization, and international energy major Equinor today announced that Equinor will deploy Amybint’s technology on all rod pump wells in Equinor’s Bakken asset in North Dakota.
The partnership comes at the end of a successful pilot and will expand to full field implementation in this asset. 
During the pilot, Equinor was able to automate rod pump well optimization through use of Ambyint’s autonomous setpoint management functionality.
By identifying wells that were over-pumping or under-pumping, controller set points were adjusted with minimal human interaction. This kind of proactive machine-driven optimization resulted in increased production rates and pump efficiency while reducing well volatility.
“The Ambyint technology has improved the remote data visibility and has delivered a more accurate diagnostic of downhole conditions to our rod pump wells in the Bakken. The Autonomous speed range management tool has leveraged the power of machine learning to optimize our wells by identifying and acting on real opportunities,” said Jack Freeman, Production Engineer for Equinor’s Bakken Asset. 
Ambyint.

Not to be confused with Ambien. 

Apparently Ambyint technology will allow the engineer to get a full night's sleep without having to wake up every hour to check on whether a given pump is over-pumping or under-pumping.