Sunday, June 3, 2018

Still Bullish On Cryptocurrency -- June 3, 2018

Disclaimer: yes, you know the drill. This is not an investment site. I'm not even sure it's an entertainment and/or education site. All I know is I've not been kicked off the internet yet. Certainly the internet gurus know my political leanings. If the internet censors are reading this, for the record I am a huge Obama supporter; will vote for Bernie Sanders if he runs again; can't understand how Hillary lost -- the election must have been hacked. And I love an unfettered net -- an internet without regulation, a free-for-all. But I digress. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Cryptocurrency: some time ago -- a couple of weeks or a couple of months, I forget, I mentioned that having initially been wary of cryptocurrency, I am now bullish. Having mentioned that a reader sent me this:
I am in the "tech"  industry so I have exposure to blockchain.  Here is the first link. This one of the most understandable explanations of the process I have encountered:
If you like that here is the follow up on how Microsoft (sorry it is not Apple) is implementing it. 
An interesting aspect of the second video is how he addresses the "energy use" aspects of the process. If I remember correctly when I first saw this it was during the bitcoin boom and warmists were worried about the CO2 impact.
Yes, warmists should be very, very concerned about blockchain. The cryptocurrency miners use huge amounts of electricity. At the rate "miners" are using electricity, some countries that signed the Paris Protocol To Control The Earth's Climate will have to start burning coal, again, to make electricity needed by the miners.

From what I can tell, the reader did not say he was bullish, neutral, or bearish with regard to cryptocurrency.

For the record, simply because I am bullish on cryptocurrency does not mean I have any money invested in the sector. I am bullish for Tesla to succeed but I am not financially invested in the company. I think it's a cool car and if I had all the money in the world, I would buy one or two or three.
  • cryptocurrency
    • distributed currency
    • keep track of who has what
    • the view has to be consistent across the platform
    • digital coin is not physical
    • if the transfer is valid, the exchange is over; the buyer "disappers"
    • public - anonymous 
    • must be scalable
  • foundation: cryptography
  • hashing: taking a block of data and creating a digest of that data -- a small representation
    • a ton of data can be converted to a small bit of data
    • each block of data will have its own digest
  • signing: take the digest and then use cryptographic key to create a signature for that digest; 
    • public - private key
  • the white board begins at 5:20
    • transaction: Mark gives Seth five bitcoins
    • Seth now has the five coins -- wants to give George five coins
    • sign the hash of the previous transaction -- the public key of George sees that transaction
    • proves that Seth has those five coins 
    • Seth signs the Seth-George transaction with Seth's private key, but once signed everyone using the public key can trace back / validate the five coins
    • George "has" the five coins but to do anything with them, he has to do another transaction
    • George to Veronica
  • how are all these folks in consensus that all those transactions took place
    • generation of blocks and generation of transactions
    • take all the transactions that might have occurred during some point in time; put them in a block
    • the hash of that whole block refers back to the previous block/hash
    • distributed consensus algorithm was the problem that needed to be solved
  • mining
  • distributed consensus algorithm was the problem that needed to be solved
    • solved with "mining"
    • mining: distributed consensus algorithm
  • power needed to mine -- sidebar
  • anyone can try to mine a block
    • to mine a block, must solve a cp that is computationally intense
    • generate a hash; 
    • a field in the block called a nonce
    • the block: the hash; the transactions (the digests); and the nonce -- assign a value
    • that value must be less than a certain value (only so many leading zeroes)
    • it will take about ten minutes to solve a problem
    • it becomes a race
    • trying to solve the puzzle -- everyone racing to be first
    • some miner solves the problem; shows everyone the solution; once everyone sees the solution, that becomes the next block in the chain
  • what's the value for the miner
    • computationally expensive and getting more computationally expensive every day
    • for solving the problem, one gets a "bit" of bitcoin as payment
    • economic incentive to make sure they are right
    • also there are fees that one can get if the economic incentive gets too small
    • miners will have to "ante" bitcoin to replenish the pool of bitcoin for economic incentives
  • to be continued -- begin at 18 minutes

Making America Great Again -- The Market, Energy, Political, And Sunday Comics Page, T+3 -- June 3, 2018

Costco. Set to raise wages for 130,000 employees. And this fall those 130,000 employees can vote to put politicians back in office who want to raise tax rates. It's an open-book test.
  • the starting wage for Costco employees would go up $1 to $14 or $14.50 per hour, while other warehouse employees would see hourly raises of $.25 to $.50
  • the raises are expected to cost the wholesale retail company $110 to $120 million before taxes. 
  • Costoc credited the raises to last year’s tax bill, which lowered the corporate tax rate and provided a windfall for large corporations
  • comment: isn't Bernie Sanders pushing for $15/hour minimum; the Costco $14.50 is for starting wages; within six months those new hires will see their hourly rate going up again; and, they can buy lunch for $1.59 at Costco -- what a great country
Wal-Mart: the linked article continues --
  • Costco is not the only company to give out raises or bonuses that they attributed to the tax bill
  • two of Costco’s competitors have as well. In January 
  • Walmart raised its starting hourly wage to $11
  • Target said it would raise its wages to $12 per hour by the spring and $15 hourly by 2020 (isn't this what Bernie wanted?)
  • (Yet other reports show that fewer than 45 of Standard & Poor’s 500 companies gave out bonuses in the four months after the bill went into effect -- from the report.)
  • comment: the "race" is not over -- maybe only 45 of the 500 companies so far, but the number will keep increasing -- the journalist writing this story -- no doubt -- sour grapes -- didn't get a raise
Scheaffer, Bic, journals, et al: incredibly good news. EPA chief is re-writing so many of Obama's rules and regulations that he is running out of pens and legal pads. But he's making American pens great again. What a great story. EPA head Scott Pruitt apparently re-wrote so many regulations, making American great again, he needed to spend $3,230 on pens and journals. I can't make this stuff up. As a huge fan of both journals and pens, I applaud Scott Pruitt. Keep it up. Except for one journalist, I don't think anyone's complaining. Tag: jumping the shark.

Lunch: meanwhile, the price of a private lunch with Warren Buffett is $3.3 million. Tag: jumping the shark.

For Newbies: How Neighboring Fracks Might "Extend" High Production For Older Wells -- June 3, 2018

This well has "seen" several neighboring wells fracked over the past year. This page won't be updated. The well:
  • 28717, 3,638, Whiting, P Johnson 153-98-1-6-7-16HA, Truax, t8/15; cum 393K 4/18;
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-2018307630747864251389212989813
BAKKEN3-2018318231849275811263790213523
BAKKEN2-20182861966041753893828907391
BAKKEN1-20183147914716100366424624091
BAKKEN12-201731310931901071123171991233
BAKKEN11-2017125763174581533230275
BAKKEN10-201745775372684524451
BAKKEN9-20173044894529348060135822101
BAKKEN8-2017314787497132816732662217
BAKKEN7-2017315173497931886348621045
BAKKEN6-2017304598487429375900572487
BAKKEN5-20173155675736301484568021345
BAKKEN4-2017306608639338491112394941540
BAKKEN3-2017275250535333829500933089
BAKKEN2-20172861416108348010365102814

Idle Chatter: Bakken Operators Executing Their Strategy; Saudi Preparing For 2019 IPO -- June 3, 2018

Wells coming off the confidential list this next week have been posted. It appears the wells being released over the weekend will be some huge wells but then next week there are going to be a lot of DUCs.

I have talked before about the large number of DUCs and inactive wells despite the fact that the price of oil is in a nice range for Bakken operators. My hunch is that operators are "managing" their assets based on their strategic plans, and that's why we continue to see so many DUCs despite the nice oil price environment.

So, what is oilprice.com talking about today? They call this "breaking news" but in fact it was reported last week. I think they are just keeping the same headline: "Saudis may hike July oil prices to Asia to more than 4-year high."

Remember, for newbies:
  • Brent is set by the market, directly; affected by Saudi Arabia, indirectly.
  • WTI is set by the market, directly: affected by Saudi Arabia, indirectly.
  • Saudi's OSP ("official selling price") is set by Saudi Arabia, but influenced by the global market.
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Trade

Americans are watching two different movies when it comes to trade. The "mainstream media" calls it a "trade war." Trump supporters would see this as a historic turn regarding trade negotiations: previously, America, a single county would negotiate trade deals with multiple countries which had formed a "bloc" (like the WTO, the EU, NAFTA, etc). Now, Trump wants bilateral negotiations: one-on-one with Mexico. One-on-one with Canada. One-on-one with the EU. One-on-one with China. In a fight would you prefer to take on a gang of seven by yourself, or would you prefer to take on each individual, one at a time? This is not rocket science. [Yes, I know the EU is a bloc of nations, and one might say my argument falls apart. That's fine. On the other hand, certain tariffs might hurt Germany more than France. But my argument may not hold water. That's fine.]

Later: just after posting the above note, I went over to CNBC to see what was being posted (see screenshot below), and right on cue, validating exactly what I just posted, the market is watching the same "trade" movie that I'm watching. In fact, the market likes the idea of the US negotiating:
  • mano a mano; 
  • from a position of strength; and,
  • without bowing
One-on-one, there is not one country that wants to go tit-for-tat with the US on raising tariffs. They will all negotiate. Which is good. Yahoo!Finance validates Trump's argument:


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The Mideast

Jordan: I've been wondering when Jordan would start imploding.

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Politics

Last night ABC Evening News reported that the contents of some letter from Trump's legal team had leaked. I don't recall the specifics. I believe the letter was from last January, 2018. That story was either the third story or the fourth story to lead ABC Evening News last night. The first two stories had to do with trivial events, one-offs, which I have already forgotten. The ABC report on the leaked contents of the letter:
  • lasted less then 60 seconds
  • showed a taped comment from Rudy Giuliani, "Trump's lawyer"
  • had no discussion with Mueller's team or with any "never-Trumper"
  • no additional discussion of any sort
What did that tell me? This is what the one-minute segment told me: ABC News knows that Americans are tired of the Mueller witch hunt. When that story comes on network news and lasts long enough for Americans to find their remote control and switch stations, folks will do just that: switch stations. I was amazed how short this segment was. I asked my wife what that was all about. Apparently Rudy Giuliani was going to be on the Sunday morning "news" shows; if so, this was simply a subliminal tease/advertisement for ABC News on Sunday morning.

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The Sports Page

Horse racing: don't forget. Triple Crown. Belmont. This weekend, June 9. Saturday. 6:36 p.m. EDT. I'll be traveling. I'll miss it.

Swimming: Katie Ledecky on cover of Swimming World's June 2018 cover.

NBA championship: for folks like me, the only two games worth watching: a) game 4 if there's a possibility of a sweep (we'll know later tonight); or, b) game 7 if it goes that far.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 3, 2018

Friday, June 8, 2018:33608, SI/NC, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-5, Truax, no production data,
33525, 786, Oasis, Spratley 5494 44-13 4T, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 138K 4/18; 
33524, 930, Oasis, Spratley Federal 5494 44-13 3BX, Alkali Creek, t1/18; cum 151K 4/18;

Thursday, June 7, 2018:
33853, 758, Lime Rock, Hansen B 18-19-1H, Stanely, an old well previously off confidential, now confidential again and producing a nice well; 50 stages; 10 million lbs; t12/17; cum 81K 4/18;
33609, SI/NC, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-4, Truax, no production data,
30556, 1,498, Bruin, Fort Berthold 148-95-13B-24-10H, Eagle Nest, t12/17; cum 117K 4/18;

Wednesday, June 6, 2018:
33610, SI/NC, Hess, SC-Gene-154-98-0805H-3, Truax, no production data,
30168, 2,107, CLR, Syracuse 7-23H, Banks, another huge Banks well for CLR; 140K in first four months, 4 sections; TD = 21,542 feet; 45 stages; 8.1 million lbs, 100-mesh; large/medium sand, plug & perf; t1/18; cum 144K 4/18;

Tuesday, June 5, 2018:
33769, 1,073, Kraken Operating, Redfield West 23-14 6H, Lone Tree Lake, t1/18; cum 56K 4/18;
33768, conf, Kraken Operating, Redfield West 23-14 5H, Lone Tree Lake, producing, 
33767, 1,415, Kraken Operating, Redfield Weest 23-14 4H, Lone Tree Lake, t12/17; cum 91K 4/18; 
33766, 868, Kraken Operating, Redfield West 23-14 3H, Lone Tree Lake, t12/17; cum 69K 4/18;
31478, SI/NC, Slawson, Serpent Federal 4 SLTFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Monday, June 4, 2018:
34126, SI/NC, Slawson, Serpent Federal 8-36-32H, Big Bend, no production data,
33913, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-LW-150-95-0817H-1, Blue Buttes, no production data,
33455, 2,454, Whiting, King 11-8H, Truax, t12/17; cum 102K 4/18;
33297, 1,591, Whiting, Scanlan 11-5H, Truax, t12/17; cum 111K 4/18;

Sunday, June 3, 2018:
33671, 740, Lime Rock Resources, Hansen 18-19-2H, Stanley, t12/17; cum 77K 4/18;
33456, 2,252, Whiting, King 11-8-2H,  Truax, t12/17; cum 98K 4/18;
33078, 1,475, Oasis, Patsy 5198 12-17 6B, Siverston, t12/17; cum 127K 4/18;
29798, 1,916, CLR, Chicago 7-26H, Banks, t1/18; cum 147K 4/18;

Saturday, June 2, 2018:
33912, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Sigrid Loomer-150-95-0817H-9, Blue Buttes, no production data,
33385, 2,564, WPX Energy, Mandan North 13-24HC, Reunion Bay, t4/1; bcum --
33052, 33, Crescent Point Energy, Little Muddy, t2/18; cum 16K 4/18;
30555, 2,437, Bruin E&P, Eagle Nest, t12/17; cum 120K 4/18;