Friday, April 6, 2018

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Exchange Reserves Plummet -- Something's Happening And The Mainstream Media Is Not Reporting It -- April 6, 2018

I don't know enough about the "Trump tariffs" to talk about it except in a very, very general way. My hunch is that the mainstream media does not know enough about "Trump tariffs" either. Producers, analysts, others have been so preoccupied with Hillary, Mueller, Russian collusion, that I truly think folks are missing some tectonic changes that are literally occurring under our feet. There are some huge stories, I think, that are not being reported.

Example: look at this chart, posted March 28, 2018, just a week or so ago. As mentioned then, it looked like Saudi Arabia might have turned the corner based on the October, November, December (2017) data, but then in January, 2018, reserves dropped, albeit slightly.
Readers know that I don't particularly care to quote/link Oilprice.com but Irina Slav has a great article today that relates directly the graph above (and one that will be posted momentarily). Ms Slav is not reporting anything readers of the blog don't already know but not many are writing about this issue in the mainstream media. I haven't subscribed to Forbes in a long, long time, but I would expect if any mainstream media would write about this story, it would be Forbes.

So, quick, what do you think Saudi's cash reserves were in February compared to January (2018)? Same, less, more? February was three days shorter than January but the price of oil stayed steady and one would expect Saudi's cash reserves to have stayed about the same month-over-month. Now that you have had time to guess, let's post the February, 2018, data.

Oh, oh.


I'm too tired to blog any more tonight, but this story, Irina Slav's story, and "Trump's tariffs" all deserve more coverage. I'll come back to these stories over the weekend.

But right now, the decline in Saudi's cash reserves in February (2018) might be the biggest story of the month. There is nothing to suggest this is a one-off. Cash reserves depend on a) revenue; and, b) expenses.

We'll close with this screenshot for now:

Huge Shout-Out To All The Readers -- April 6, 2018

Updates

April 7, 2018, 10:42 p.m. Central Time -- pageviews -- 10,999,902 -- only 98 views from eleven million pageviews, but I'm tired, ready to go to bed. Not sure what to do. On the weekend during the day, maybe 100 pageviews/hour but the number will drop significantly as we get to midnight/early morning hours in the US. I may be asleep when we go over the 11MM mark.

Original Post 

Due to family commitments, I might miss it tomorrow. But sometime this weekend, the number of pageviews for the blog should hit the 11,000,000 (11 million) mark.

Right now, 8:30 p.m. Central Time, April 6, 2018, pageviews are at: 10,996,854.

During the week, the blog averages about 3,500 pageviews/day (24 hours).


Right now, there are only 3,146 pageviews until we hit eleven million. I don't know what the average pageviews are on the weekend but I assume it's significantly less than the weekday average.

During the boom, readership averaged around 6,000 pageviews/day. Early on, there were days that exceeded 7,000 pageviews. I did note 7,313 pageviews on April 11, 2012.

As the Bakken has matured, the number of pageviews has decreased. The record low that I noted was 2,894 on August 14, 2016.

One can track pageviews at the bottom of the blog, below the "tags," on the lower left side of the blog.

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Memories

Massachussetts, The Bee Gees

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The Beatles vs The Bee Gees

Over the years I've wracked my brain trying to sort out, on a rational basis, which group was better, the Beatles or the Bee Gees.

Earlier this week, I finally "solved" the problem. There is no answer. The two groups are in different "arenas." Whatever arena you want to put the Beatles in, and whatever arena you want to put the Bee Gees in, they are each the best in their arena. But they are in different arenas. Apples and oranges.

But if you ask me, right now, at this moment, to whom do I prefer to listen? The Bee Gees, hands down.

Eleven New Permits; Three DUCs Completed; Three Permits Renewed; WTI Falls -- April 6, 2018

Active rigs:

$62.06↓↓4/6/201804/06/201704/06/201604/06/201504/06/2014
Active Rigs58492894192

Eleven (11) new permits:
  • Operators: MRO (7); Whiting (4)
  • Fields: Killdeer (Dunn); Tyrone (Williams)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a 4-well Berger pad in SESW 10-156-101; MRO has permits for a 4-well pad in SESE 23-146-95; MRO also has permits for a 3-well pad in SWSW 36-146-95;
Three permits renewed:
  • EOG (2): two Liberty LR permits in Mountrail County
  • BR: one Saddle Butte permit in McKenzie County
Three producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 23967, 2,367, WPX, Arikara 15-22HD, Reunion Bay, t3/18; cum --
  • 23966, 2,086, WPX, Arikara 15-22HY, Reunion Bay, t3/18; cum --
  • 23963, 2,017, WPX, Arikara 15-22HX, Reunion Bay, t3/18; cum --

Off The Net For Awhile

God's country.


The Political Page, T+38 -- April 6, 2018

The best part of my day, politically, is the daily "periscope / podcast" by Scott Adams. I'm not sure if he goes live at the exact same time every day, but he apparently begins his "periscope" about 10:00 a.m. Central Time, reporting out of California, 8:00 a.m. their time.

The "periscope" shows up later on Twitter.

The live "periscope" shows real-time comments from those listening to Scott Adams. He's really quite remarkable. To some extent, one might think of Scott Adams as "Rush Lite." Rush does not make predictions, for the most part, but he is perhaps the best political analyst at the presidential level. Rush seldom goes farther down than presidential politics, and he generally sticks to politics.

Scott Adams, on the other hand, is interested in "human persuasion" and likes to test his theories by making predictions. He covers the trending topics of the day, not necessarily "pure politics" but in this environment, "everything is politics."

If I had to choose one or the other for my daily dose of "political commentary," right now it would be Scott Adams.

It's a little bit hard to find Scott Adams when he goes live every weekday morning (I don't know if he does a commentary on the weekends). I go to twitter; search "Scott Adams" on twitter; select his home page (not "Dilbert"); and, then wait for the "periscope" to pop up. It's easy to miss. Then I click on the "periscope camcast" which takes me to the live "periscope" which has real-time comments streaming at the sidebar at the right.

And, as noted, if you miss it, it will be shown on twitter a few minutes later where it stays "forever" for playback.

I've also caught a Scott Adams "periscope" later in the day; whether that's a regular feature or not, I don't yet know.

Today: I'll be watching the Masters. Perhaps my least favorite golfer on the PGA circuit is Sergio Garcia. I was lucky enough to catch this live. It was incredible to watch this as it was happening. Sergio sets a record:



The amazing thing: Sergio might have been leading after the 1st round had it not been for the 15th hole.

Another PGA Masters Augusta note: midway through the second day of the four-day tournament, only two players have failed to log a birdie on any 5-par hole: one is an amateur player; the other is .... drum roll .... Tiger Woods. 

Let's end on a positive note:

What Is Love, Haddaway

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The China Page

Deng Xiaoping And The Transformation of China
Ezra  Vogel
c. 2011 
951.05 VOG 

The British lease on Hong Kong would expire in 1997. Deng Xiaoping to British governor of Hong Kong, 1979: "If you think governing Hong Kong is hard, you ought to try governing China."

1979: China was in a disastrous state
  • 30 million people died during the previous decade, the Great Leap Forward
  • average per capita income of Chinese peasants, who made up 80 percent of the population, was $40 (US)
  • the amount of grain produced per person had fallen below what it had been in 1957
Deng Xiaoping
  • b. 1904
  • comes to power as "preeminent leader of China": 1978
  • steps aside: 1992
Chapter 1: From Revolutionary to Builder to Reformer, 1904 - 1969
Chapter 2: Banishment and Return, 1969 - 1974
Chapter 3: Bringing Order under Mao, 1974 - 1975
Chapter 4: Looking Forward Under Mao, 1975
Chapter 5: Sidelined as the Mao Era Ends, 1976
Chapter 6: Return under Hua, 1977 - 1978
Chapter 7: Three Turning Points, 1978
Chapter 8: Setting the Limits of Freedom, 1978 - 1979
Chapter 9: The Soviet-Vietnamese Threat, 1978 - 1979
Chapter 10: Opening to Japan, 1978
Chapter 11: Opening to the United States, 1978 - 1979
Chapter 12: Launching the Deng Administration, 1979- 1980
Chapter 13: Deng's Art of Governing
Chapter 14: Experiments in Guangdong and Fujian, 1979 - 1984
Chapter 15: Economic Readjustment and Rural Reform, 1978 - 1982
Chapter 16: Accelerating Economic Growth and Opening, 1982 - 1989
Chapter 17: One Country, Two Systems: Taiwan, hong Kong, and Tibet
Chapter 18: The Military: Preparing for Modernization
Chapter 19: The Ebb and Flow of Politics
Chapter 20: Beijing Spring, April 15 - May 17, 1989
Chapter 21: The Tiananmen Tragedy, May 17 - June 4, 1989
Chapter 22: Standing Firm, 1989 - 1992
Chapter 23: Deng's Finale: The Southern Journey, 1992
Chapter 24: China Transformed