Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- March 18, 2018

Look at the production of some of these wells. Yes, I would be surprised if North Dakota doesn't set new production records this next summer.

Note: Iron Oil will report a nice well this week (see below). From the "Bakken Operators" page:

Iron Oil: first mentioned on the blog, July 18, 2017

• about 21 wells transferred from Hunt Oil Company to Iron Oil Operating, LLC
• I believe this is a new entrant into the Bakken
• a Billings, MT, company
• website here

Wells coming off the confidential list this next week.

Friday, March 23, 2018:
32822, 2,342, Whiting, Flatland 24-9-1XH, Banks, 4 sections, 40 stages; 10 million lbs, large/small; a huge Flatland well; 100K+ in first four full month; (#25802 with a jump in production; #20068 still off-line); t10/17; cum 125K 1/18;
32617, 1,157, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 14-26 12TX, North Tobacco Garden, 4 sections, 50 stages; 4 million lbs, mesh/large/medium, t10/17; cum 125K 1/18; a huge well; 100K+ in first four full months;
32158, 2,128, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-13B-24-13H, Antelope, Three Forks B1, 50 stages; 9.5 million lbs; a huge well; 90+ in first full four months; (#18905, huge well, AB); t10/17; cum 93K 1/18;

Thursday, March 22, 2018:
33627, SI/NC, Hess, BB-State-LW-151-96-3625H-1,  Blue Buttes, no production data,

Wednesday, March 21, 2018:
33837, SI/NC, Abraxas, Yellowstone 7H, North Fork, no production data,
33836, SI/NC, Abraxas, Yellowstone 6H, North Fork, no production data,
33629, SI/NC, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-10, Blue Buttes, no production data,
33628, SI/NC, Hess, BB-State 151-96-3625H-11, Blue Buttes, no production data,
32616, 1,363, Oasis, Oyloe 5199 14-26 11B, North Tobacco Garden, 50 stages; 9.9 million lbs; mesh/large/large ceeramic; a huge well; 130+ in first four full months, including 42K in 12/17; t10/17; cum 145K 1/18;
32156, 416, Bruin, Fort Berthold 152-94-13B-24-12H, Antelope, Three Forks B1, 51 stages; 10 million lbs; , producing, t9/17; cum 14K 1/18;
31294, SI/NC, Slawson, Serpent Federal 7-36-32TFH, Big Bend, no production data,

Tuesday, March 20, 2018:
33620, SI/NC, Whiting, Johnson 24-7M, Truax, no production; probably no production planned;
32752, 1,123, Oasis, White 5198 11-18 8TX, North Tobacco Garden, 4 sections, Three Forks, 10 million lbs, mess/large/ceramic; a huge well; 100K+ in first four full months; t10/17; cum 104K 1/18;

Monday, March 19, 2018:
33835, SI/NC, Abraxas, Yellowstone 5H,  North Fork, no production data, 

Sunday, March 18, 2018:
33630, SI/NC, Hess, BB-State-151-96-3625H-9, Blue Buttes, no production data, 
29976, 894, QEP, MHA 7-06-01H-149-92, Heart Butte, Three Forks, 51 stages; 10.3 million lbs; mesh/large, a very nice well; 90K+ in first four full months; t9/17; cum 95K 1/18;

Saturday, March 17, 2018:
32838, SI/NC, BR, CCU Badger 1A-TFH, Corral Creek, no production data, 

LNG-By-Rail? For New England? For The Archives -- March 18, 2018

Link here.

What's to like? Certainly not these:

• increased rail traffic
• increased likelihood of mishap
• increased CO2 emissions (for what it's worth)

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On Tax Assessments

Interesting essay, "Why History Goes in Circles" by Eric Ormsby in this weekend's edition of The Wall Street Journal.

It begins:

Ibn Khaldun pops up in the most unexpected places. This late medieval Tunisian-born thinker (1332-1406) has been celebrated by historians, economists, sociologists and ethnographers, not to mention scholars of Islamic thought, often rather vaguely and without any precise understanding of the nature of his ideas.

He has been called “the father of sociology” or the first “philosopher of history,” among other honorifics. In 1935 the popular English historian Arnold Toynbee, the author of “A Study of History” in 12 volumes, waxed rhapsodical over Ibn Khaldun’s accomplishments, claiming that his “Muqaddimah” (“Introduction” in Arabic) was “undoubtedly the greatest work of its kind that has ever been created by any mind in any time or place.” It doesn’t detract from Ibn Khaldun’s genuine originality to note that this claim is the sheerest hyperbole. Yet it had the happy effect of putting Ibn Khaldun back on the intellectual map, and it contains an element of truth: His speculations on history were unprecedented, his theories both novel and persuasive.

As Robert Irwin notes in his excellent “Ibn Khaldun: An Intellectual Biography” (Princeton, 243 pages, $29.95), his subject’s influence has also been pervasive, if often subterranean.

To take one surprising example: On Oct. 1, 1981, President Ronald Reagan alluded to him in a press conference when he invoked “a principle that goes back at least, I know, as far as the 14th century, when a Muslim philosopher named Ibn Khaldun said, ‘In the beginning of the dynasty, great tax revenues were gained from small assessments. At the end of the dynasty, small tax revenues were gained from large assessments.”

(The president added—O forlorn hope!—“And we’re trying to get down to the small assessments and the great revenues.”) As Mr. Irwin shows, Ibn Khaldun’s cyclical notion of history also underlies classic works of science fiction, such as Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” trilogy and Frank Herbert’s “Dune.” No other Muslim author, let alone one writing in high-flown classical Arabic, has had comparable influence on thinkers and scholars in both the Islamic world and the West.

Prince Salman is not mentioned in the essay -- you know, the one that has imposed huge tax assessments on his kingdom.

Uber Is Top Threat To Oil -- Not! -- March 18, 2018

Updates

March 22, 2018: also this -- a reader reminded me of this -- airport parking structures are losing money due to Uber. In The WSJ. DFW just spent a gazillion dollars on expanding / upgrading parking structures; local news articles already talking about DFW losing money due to Uber:

For many air travelers, getting to and from the airport has long been part of the whole miserable experience. Do they drive and park in some distant lot? Take mass transit or a taxi? Deal with a rental car?

Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are quickly changing those calculations. That has meant a bit less angst for travelers.

But that’s not the case for airports. Travelers’ changing habits, in fact, have begun to shake the airports’ financial underpinnings.

Fewer people are parking cars at airports, using taxis or renting cars, according to a recent report from the National Academies Press.

Those trend lines are hurting airports, which depend on fees from parking lots, rental car companies and taxis as their biggest source of revenue other than the fees paid by the airlines. The money they currently collect from ride-hailing services do not compensate for the lower revenues from the other sources.

March 22, 2018: they must be reading Carpe Diem or the blog over at The Washington Post --

Falling transit ridership poses an ‘emergency’ for cities, experts fear.

Transit ridership fell in 31 of 35 major metropolitan areas in the U.S. last year, including each of the seven cities that serve the majority of riders, with losses largely stemming from buses, but punctuated by reliability issues on systems like Metro, according to an annual overview of public transit usage.

The analysis by the New York-based TransitCenter advocacy group, using data from the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Transit Database, raises alarm about the state of “legacy” public transit systems in the Northeast and Midwest and rising vehicle ownership and car-based commuting in cities nationwide.

Researchers concluded that factors such as lower fuel costs, increased teleworking, higher car ownership and the rise of alternatives such as Uber and Lyft are pulling people off trains and buses at record levels.

Original Post

 This still remains one of my favorite posts. From March 29, 2016, with updates -- "Uber is top threat to oil  -- Dennis Gartman. "

Hold that thought.

Mark Perry doesn't miss much when it comes to statistics and charts, but it looks like a reader spotted something he missed.

Look at this chart (from Mark Perry):

It is/was easy to note that "ride-hailing" calls are increasing exponentially while NYC taxi calls have plunged significantly.

But now getting back to Dennis Gartman.

Look what a reader noted: it wasn't the rise of "ride-hailing" and the decline of the yellow taxi. The reader noted that in 2014, there were approximately 15 million taxi fares. Four years later, 2018, the number of taxi fares + ride-hailing surged to over 25 million fares. 

This raises a lot of questions:

• to what extent are these new public transportation riders; 
• where were the losses (other than yellow taxis?)
• ditching public transportation like light rail, subways, buses?
• ditching driving their own cars?
• how is this affecting NYC's overall economy as more folks get out and about
• has gasoline demand increased along the East Coast corridor -- from Washington, DC, to NYC, to Boston, as folks ditch public transportation to take private autos?

By the way, there was a post fairly recently that suggested folks were giving up public transportation for ride-hailing services. 

The Week's Top Energy Stories For North Dakota -- March 18, 2018

From ndenergy.org, the week's top North Dakota energy stories.

Lynn Helms: we need another pipeline

North Dakota oil production is on pace to break the state's previous record, and that means additional crude takeaway capacity will be needed soon.

"Natural gas wise, we're blowing the lid off this thing," he said. "We really are struggling to figure out what to do with all that gas."

Helms said North Dakota producers now have to undercut Canadian suppliers to get their natural gas in a pipeline. But by 2026, there will be so much Bakken gas the pipelines will all be full. Current production is about 2.1 billion cubic feet per day, but Helms expects that total will eventually double.

Bakken investment could hit $700 billion

North Dakota's oil and gas industry has already invested $127 billion in the state, but industry regulators say there's much more to come.

Lynn Helms, Director of the Department of Mineral Resources, predicts that over the life of the play, total investment will approach $600-to-700 billion.

"If this was a football game, we're just coming to the end of the first quarter," Helms said, "so most of the game is still in front of us."

Watford City schools need more teachers

Blogged previously: PSC approves two major projects

CENEX pipeline

The ND Public Service Commission has given the go-ahead to Cenex to upgrade a diesel fuel pipeline between Sidney, Montana and Minot, North Dakota.

The existing 150-mile, eight-inch diameter pipeline will be replaced with a 10-inch line. The upgraded infrastructure will allow Cenex to expand the carrying potential of the pipeline to 60,000 barrels a day from the initial upgraded level of 38,000 bbl/day.  

Arrow Bear Den gas plant

The ND Public Service Commission has approved a construction permit for the Arrow Bear Den Gas Processing Plant II near Watford City. 

The permitting process began in November 2017 to support Crestwood Arrow's gathering system on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation. A new 25-mile long pipeline will bring product to the plant.

The Phase 2 expansion is expected to cost approximately $195 million and be in service by the third quarter of 2019. 

151-94-14, Reunion Bay, MRO, Jones/Lun/Others

Start with this Three Forks second bench well -- it is a huge well but for some reason it went inactive 1/18:

• 29209, 2,776, MRO, Ernestine USA 11-14TFH-2B,  Reunion Bay, "the third of many wells to be drilled on this pad by H&P #259; the very first 2nd Bench"; Three Forks Second Bench, a huge well, 32K in first month, background gases relatively low (300 - 10,000; 20' flare common and intermittent); a 10' target; t6/15; cum 365K 8/19;went inactive 1/18; back on line for four months, 5/18 - 8/18; active as of 1/19; no jump in production; off line 5/19; back on line 7/19; 
  

The graphic:

The wells:

• 29208, 2,533, MRO, Lun USA 11-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 255K 8/19; see above;
  
• 29209, see above;
• 29210, IA/2,900 MRO, Tony Lun USA 12-14TFH, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 365K 8/18; remains inactive, 3/19; looks like it's dead, 8/19;
• 29211, 2,929, MRO, Doll USA 12-14H, Reunion Bay, t6/15; cum 486K 8/19; see production jump below; API 33-053-06220; FracFocus no evidence of any re-frack; remains inactive 3/19;

• 34100, 4,857, MRO, Nora Jones 12-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 325K 8/19; huge well -- 77K in 12/18;
• 34101, 4,966, MRO, Briek 13-14H, Reunion Bay, t11/18; cum 344K 8/19; huge well -- 76K 11/18; 68K 12/18;
  
• 34102, 4,488, MRO, Julia Jones USA 13-14TFH, Reunion Bay, t11/18; cum 273K 8/19; huge well -- 58K 12/18;
  
• 34103, 7,471, MRO, Dye USA 14-14TFH-2B, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 377K 8/19; huge well -- 59K in 1/19;
  
• 34104, 5,747, MRO, Hammerberg USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, t10/18; cum 351K 8/19; huge well, 66K in 11/18; 57K in 1/19;
  

• 19514, 527, MRO, Jones USA 14-14H, Reunion Bay, t4/11; cum 628K 8/19; look at the jump in 12/18 -- be sure to note that the 6,870 bbls was over only 13 days (extrapolates to: 16K bbls/month); re-fracked 7/26/2018 - 7/28/2018; a small re-frack with 3 million gallons of water:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	12-2018	13	6870	6802	18265	6607	3321	2866
BAKKEN	11-2018	1	403	439	586	403	4	375
BAKKEN	10-2018	8	3648	3608	15270	4939	0	4727
BAKKEN	9-2018	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2018	1	2	2	0	1	1	0
BAKKEN	7-2018	0	0	126	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2018	26	1597	1673	349	2446	1950	11
BAKKEN	5-2018	31	2352	2418	285	3433	2773	20
BAKKEN	4-2018	30	2648	2608	307	3384	2548	0

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Production Notes

29201: a nice well; off-line as of 1/18, though still producing nicely

29211: recent production data --

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2018	31	11040	10984	2965	19548	16745	380
BAKKEN	12-2017	18	6794	6751	1598	10948	8953	496
BAKKEN	11-2017	30	6671	6510	2161	10579	8388	438
BAKKEN	10-2017	17	3388	3505	559	6791	5620	232
BAKKEN	9-2017	30	6801	6865	958	14259	11503	853
BAKKEN	8-2017	31	7229	7243	1203	14504	11959	334
BAKKEN	7-2017	31	7595	7457	1355	15051	13078	108
BAKKEN	6-2017	30	7517	7488	1282	15066	12186	1187
BAKKEN	5-2017	31	7814	7757	1331	13239	11270	259
BAKKEN	4-2017	30	5941	5963	946	9665	7856	343