3Q17

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. If this is important to you, go to the source. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If something looks wrong, it probably is.
 

Earnings Calendar

Earnings for the current quarter will be reported at this page; the link will be on the sidebar at the right, under "Earnings Central." When we start to see earnings reports for any quarter, the "Earnings Central" link is moved to the top of the sidebar until the earnings season is over.

I don't have time to check/update earnings on all companies that might interest me or readers.

Much of this information is done in haste. I assume there are factual and typographical errors. It is for my personal use only. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Note: by 4Q16 I lost a lot of interest in tracking earnings. I'm not sure where I will go with this page. In fact, there are more and more days when ... no, I won't go there. 



November 3, 2017:

• EOG
• 3Q17 net income: $100.5 million vs a loss one year earlier
• EPS: 17 cents/share; adjusted, 19 cents/share
• forecast: 10 cents/share
• revenue: $2.64 billion vs $2.58 billion forecast

October 26, 2017:

• Xilinx: 2Q17 earnings beat; revenues in line. Shares slump.
• COP: 3Q17 EPS of 16 cents beats by 8 cents. Or another way to put it, earnings per share double  what analysts forecast. Double. More at SeekinagAlpha. 
• Hess: shares fall on "slashed" guidance for 4Q17.   
• Whiting: quarterly loss shrinks as oil prices rise. The loss this quarter: 79 cents/share; same period one year ago, $2.47.

October 25, 2017:

Ford shares jump 1.5% pre-market as earnings blow through estimates -- 39 cents/share vs 24 cents/share a year earlier. Adjusted, 46 cents beat by a wide margin the consensus of 33 cents. This is the important take-away:

• the 1.5% is a non-story
• the big story is this: another US success story -- making America great
• for the past three months, nothing but concerns about how Ford might be doing
• folks wouldn't be buying cars, SUVs, trucks if they weren't optimistic; if the economy wasn't doing well
• this story: reflects the health of the US economy
• remember: GM had great quarter also; link here; cost-cutting; shift to higher-margin trucks and SUVs; shares jumped to record high; reduced glut; blew through estimates; $1.32 vs forecast of $1.14;
• in the case of the automakers, U.S. car and light truck sales have so far defied predictions of a significant slump. September sales hit the fastest pace in 12 years as residents of Texas and Florida rushed to replace cars damaged by storms

October 24, 2017:

• CAT: huge earnings report
• GM: beats estimates for eighth straight quarter
• McDonald's: does okay

October 22, 2017:

HAL. Halliburton profit tops estimates on strong North America demand. Reuters even used the word "surged" -- a word we don't often see these days in the oil sector except when combined with production, such as "production surged." Data points:

• revenue surges 91%
• revenue from North America at $3.16 billion
• total revenue rose 42% to $5.44 billion
• profit: 42 cents a share vs 1 cent per share a year earlier
• profit: $365 million most recent quarter vs $6 million one year earlier
• analysts forecast: 37 cents/share

October 21, 2017

• Schlumberger and Halliburton

October 20, 2017

• GE: from Reuters: even before the stock's decline on Friday, GE produced a total return - share appreciation plus reinvested dividends - of just 0.64 percent over the last 16 years. A $1,000 investment on the day former CEO Jeff Immelt started his tenure would be worth $1,006.38 today. Immelt stepped down August 1, 2017
• GE: from same link:  it would generate only about $7 billion in cash from operations, down from $12 billion to $14 billion it had forecast earlier. It left its dividend unchanged
• GE: $1 billion operating cash flow (talking head on CNBC); dividends: $8 billion/year (CNBC)
• GE: "power" division is the big story; it would be interesting to know what percent renewables make up the "power" division
• GE: it seems this, the GE story, is an open-book test

October 19, 2017

• Bank of New York Mellon Corp's better-than-expected profit in the third quarter failed to impress investors, who focused instead on the bank's lower foreign exchange trading revenue.
• Shares of the world's largest custodian bank fell 3.7 percent in morning trading on Thursday.

October 17, 2017

• NFLX (Netflix): down 3.5% after reporting great subscription numbers; profit-taking; traded at new high earlier today
• watching for BK on October 19, 2017, when earnings are reported
• GS, down 2.3% today but surprises with a "beat"; and it was a huge beat; EPS of $5.02 vs estimate of $4.17 (huge; a 20% beat); and revenue of $8.3 billion vs estimate of $7.5 billion (again, huge; an 11% beat)

Oil E&P: see this RBN Energy story here.

E&P Profits Shrink But Solidly Profitable -- RBN Energy -- September 27, 2017

Active rigs:

$51.79↓	9/27/2017	09/27/2016	09/27/2015	09/27/2014	09/27/2013
Active Rigs	59	32	71	190	184

RBN Energy: latest E&P profits shrink after strong 1Q17, but industry remains solidly profitable.

The 43 U.S. exploration and production companies (E&Ps) we’ve been tracking racked up $160 billion in losses in 2015-16, but they turned things around in the first quarter of 2017, posting profits of $9.1 billion, or $9.12 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe), during that three-month period.

At first glance, the second quarter might seem like a return to tough times; profits by the group fell more than 80%, to only $1.7 billion, or $1.71/boe. However, when $6.3 billion in impairments by ConocoPhillips ­­­­— most of them tied to $16 billion asset sales and a write-down of the Australia Pacific LNG project — are excluded, second-quarter profits by our universe of Oil-Weighted, Diversified and Gas-Weighted E&Ps totaled $8.0 billion, or $8.02/boe, a decline of only 11.6% from the first three months of 2017. Today, we begin a review of E&P performance and profitability with a big-picture look at key elements of their income statements.

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Oil Trending Higher

Looking through the headlines suggests why WTI is heading toward $52:

• nothing more than an echo chamber; "everybody" talking about oil trneding toward $60
• weak dollar
• Turkey threatens to shut off oil from Kurdistan
• re-balancing is working (see echo chamber, above)
• talk that OPEC will extend cuts; maybe deeper cuts
• Zacks reports that there was an unexpected draw in US crude oil inventories
• Harold Hamm suggesting that IEA is mis-forecasting

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Duvernay Field: Canada's Biggest Shale Oil Reserves

From Reuters via Rigzone, data points:

• by-line: Calgary, Alberta
• the Duvernay field in Alberta holds Canada's largest marketable resources of unconventional light shale oil and condensate -- national energy regulator
• first time that the National Energy Board has done a detailed study of resources in the 50,193-square-mile Duvernay play
• covers around 20% of Alberta
• 3.4 billion bbls of marketable light oil and condensate (compare with Bakken's 50 billion recoverable crude oil)
• 6.3 billion bbls of natural gas liquids
• 77 trillion cubic feet of natural gas (well below Montney and Liand, see below)
• recoverable boe equivalent to 25 years of Canada's annual consumption
• note: Canada's Montney and Liand Basin shale deposits: 449 Tcf and 216 Tcf natural gas, respectively
• Alberta can use this light shale oil to dilute its huge resources of bitumen

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Uber -- Not So Uber Any More

Out of London. Now Uber pulls out of Quebec -- doesn't want to comply with new regulations

Finally, on another note regarding Uber, connecting some dots. Some time ago it was reported that Prince Salman made a huge investment in Uber as part of his Vision 2030. It was never explained, and it never made sense to me. Now we know. In the news that Saudi Arabia will now allow women to drive (in a couple of years, not right away), it turns out that Saudi Arabia was trying to find a way to "resolve" issues with their policy of not allowing women to drive. Their answer: Uber.

Not stated was the problem with the "Uber solution." Saudi also bars women traveling without their husband (or other trusted male escort, generally a family member) from associating with men. And since Uber drivers in Saudi Arabia would all be male ... well, you see the problem.

One wonders if it's just a matter of time before Prince Salman dumps his Uber shares.

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Trade War -- Trudeau Vs Trump

The data points:

• Wilbur Ross, US Secretary of Commerce, solidly behind this
• has nothing to do with NAFTA
• a specific complaint from Boeing
• Involves Bombardier
• US considers 220% tariff on Canada's Bombardier jets
• will take several months
• for investors? an open-book test

Six DUCs Reported As Completed; Petro-Hunt Has Another Big Charlson Field Well -- September 26, 2017

Active rigs:

$52.07→	9/26/2017	09/26/2016	09/26/2015	09/26/2014	09/26/2013
Active Rigs	59	34	71	190	184

Seven new permits:

• Operators: BR (6); Liberty Resources
• Fields: Pershing (McKenzie); North Tioga (Burke)
• Comments:

Two permits renewed:

• CLR: one Bob permit in McKenzie County
• Oasis: one Jensen permit in Williams County

Three permits canceled:

• Petro-Hunt: a Setterland permit (Burke County); a Hoiby permit (Mountrail County); and, a Sabroskky permit (Dunn County)

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 30685, 1,380, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-9C-4-3H, Charlson, t8/17; cum --
• 32543, 310, BR, Lassen 1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum -- ; (24136; 18025)
• 32544, 284, BR, Lassen 3-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum -- ; (24136; 18025)
• 32445, 224, BR, 2-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum -- ; (24136; 18025)
• 32746, 160, BR, Lassen 4-1-26MBH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum -- ; (24136; 18025)
• 32747, 547, BR, Lassen 5-1-26UTFH, Blue Buttes, t8/17; cum -- ; (24136; 18025)

Enhanced Completions In The Bakken Could Cap Upside -- Filloon -- September 26, 2017

Over at SeekingAlpha, summary:

• Bakken core wells show a lower level of oil production than other plays, but decreased well costs provide economic benefits
• lateral lengths in North Dakota mostly range between 8,000 and 12,000 feet
• current enhanced well results support production at $50/bbl (after differentials) but it is likely higher prices will be needed to support growth
• enhanced well results have improved economics significantly, and are the reason there is much dissension in current break evens

Key point:

Enhanced completions are in the early stages of development. Since results continue to improve, there is not reason to believe this will not continue in the immediate future. This continues to pressure oil prices and the U.S. Oil ETF. It is obvious that operators can produce a profit at much lower oil price than just two years ago. If improvements continue, we could see lower for longer with respect to WTI.

Other data points:

• at 250K over 19 months, a marked improvement over last year
• plug and perf with cemented lines with tighter-space perf clusters
• well design is outpacing lower quality geology
• well design is driving US production growth; EOG is acting as the flagship

The graphic: the arrows point to the wells that interest me --

 

The Political Page, T+249 -- September 26, 2017

Global warming hits Arizona: Arizona Snowbowl is the first to start snowmaking in the country.

Arizona Snowbowl fired up the snow guns this weekend, marking the earliest artificial snowfall in the country! Not to mention this being the earliest start to the snowy season in Arizona.

This historical contest is usually won by Colorado ski parks Loveland Ski Area and Arapahoe Basin. This is the first instance where Snowbowl has beaten them both.

Montana update: I will be driving from Portland, OR, to Flathead Lake, during the second week of October. Long-range forecasts: no snow; low of 39 degrees at night; high of 70 degrees during the day over Lookout Pass, Idaho.

All lives matter: the Smithsonian in Washington, DC, finally found room to honor Clarence Thomas in its year-old African American history museum. The museum did not have room for the Supreme Court justice at its opening. Reminds me of the Hall of Fame. In this case Clarence Thomas did not make it in his first year of eligibility but made the Hall of Fame in the second year of his eligibility. Speaking of which, where is his nemesis, Ms Anita Hill, these days? Wiki says she is a university professor at Brandeis University.