Saturday, April 29, 2017

Best Damn Fracking Company Goes Public -- April 29, 2017

Updates

May 1, 2017: CNBC spent a minute or so on this story.

Original Post 

Only in the oil and gas sector.

BDFC -- NYSE.

IPO: $16 - $19 / share.

Liberty Oilfield Services, Inc. Data points:
  • Denver-based
  • 22 million shares issued
  • best ticker symbol ever? Right up there with LUV and a few others.
From the link: "The company has helped to lead several trends in the Williston Basin."

Also at the link:
In addition to operations in the Bakken, Liberty has expanded within the past two years into other basins including the Permian, Eagle Ford and Niobrara.
During that time, Liberty also acquired the North American assets of a Canadian-based pressure pumping company and unveiled a unique quiet fleet technology offering that reduces noise emissions during hydraulic fracturing operations.
Recently, Liberty created and unveiled to its Williston Basin customers a trademarked Frac Trend View that allows users to view why operators have good wells in specific areas, what the best wells in a given area have in common and other unique frack-based information for a given shale play.
BDFC.

Best damn story of the day.

Prince Salman's U-Turn -- A Must-Read -- April 29, 2017

Link here over at The Economist. Archived. First thought: if an autocrat (dictator?) suddenly reverses course to pay his minions more at a time when his kingdom is in deep financial straits -- and with no good news on the horizon -- it only tells me that the emperor with no clothes realizes that, even at home, he is in deep doo-doo.

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A Note For The Granddaughters

Your great-grandmother Ruth grew up in northwest Iowa, a state for which she still has fond memories.

I remember on numerous occasions while growing up in Williston she would talk about her closest childhood friend moving to Kansas City, Missouri. I never thought much about that at the time.

But it's funny how things happen. Decades later while touring the Grand Canyon I picked up a softcover copy of The Harvey Girls: Women Who Opened the West, by Lesley Poling-Kempes, c. 1989.

From page 116:
Newton and Dodge City may have challenged the Harvey system and its ability to bring gentility to a railroad community, but Kansas City, Kansas, was a made-to-order Harvey town. For many years, Kansas City was Harvey headquarters, with the offices of the Harvey brothers, and the head employment office, in the Union Station. The great Harvey dining room at the Union Station opened in 1914, and could seat an unprecedented 525 people. 
"The opening was a glorious occasion." Cora Winter recalled in a 1946 interview with the Kansas City Star."
So many dots to connect. So let's begin.

First, Hemingway and the Kansas City Star. 'Nuf said.

1914: WWI. Your great-great grandfather "Ekke (Ike)" Flessner was sent to France around 1918. He was invalided in France with pandemic flu. He most likely did not see combat action. He very likely could have taken a troop train through Kansas City on his way to wherever he trained before going overseas. I'm thinking of The Great Gatsby, of course.

"Putting 2 and 2 together" suggests to me that in the 1940s and 1950s, maybe earlier, Kansas City (Kansas / Missouri) was the center of the universe for young folks growing up in Iowa. And that's exactly where my mother grew up -- in Iowa. She did not have much when she was growing up on a farm in Iowa and she may have had even less when she married and moved to North Dakota. If I am correct that Kansas City was the center of the universe for young Iowans in the first half of the 20th century, then it was the center of her universe, and it adds a lot to the story of your great-great grandmother.

Emotionally things would have gotten worse for her when she was struggling in remote and desolate North Dakota and then reading that her best childhood friend, married to a wealthy car salesman, was moving to Kansas City to run a dealership there.

I write all that because we got a note today from an elderly couple (which only means that they are a few years older than we are) who, after thirteen years in San Antonio where we first met them, have moved to Kansas City, Missouri, to be closer to one of their daughters and their grandchildren.

Seeing their Kansas City, Missouri, address was all it took to remind me of my mom and a) how often she talked of Kansas City, Missouri; and, b) how much she gave up by marrying Dad and moving to North Dakota.

Cue in the violins.

Kansas City Star, Roger Miller

Why The Crude Oil Rally Fizzled -- Platts -- 3rd Of 3 Parts -- April 29, 2017

Part 3 of a 3-part article. First two articles also archived. The link will take you to Part 1 and Part 2, also.
Just Wednesday, Platts reported that China received a record 4.83 million b/d of crude from OPEC in March. While Saudi barrels were down, they were more than made up by barrels from Angola, Kuwait and Venezuela.
No matter how you slice it, today’s crude market is set up to quickly displace lost supply. And this dynamic will most likely hold up until the Brent/Dubai EFS and the WTI/Dubai spread unwind. Cheaper Dubai will be the key to that. And that will come about when OPEC countries again compete for market share.
A recent upturn in Persian Gulf-Asia VLCC rates suggest this may be in the cards sooner than some had expected.
Bottom line: the only thing that will raise crude oil prices significantly -- geopolitics -- a nice little war somewhere in the Mideast. Whether a skirmish on the Korean peninsula would raise oil prices was not discussed.

Flashback: New "Featured Post" At The Sidebar At The Right -- April 29, 2017

Link here. Originally posted back in 2014. From the original post with regard to a study of the Bakken back in 2014:
The most glaring short-coming (obviously one can say this in hindsight), KLJ did all their studies based on three price-points for oil: $70/bbl; $85/bbl; and, $100/bbl. In hindsight, they needed to take this to $50/bbl which is very possible for the next two to three years. (It is very possible but very unlikely.) $50-oil won't shut down the Bakken but it changes the economic picture and the impact on North Dakota dramatically. In fact, the impact with $50 oil might be greater than if oil goes to $150 for the next five years. The contractor was lucky to complete this study by September, 2014, before the plunge in oil prices. 
$50 oil -- "very possible but very unlikely" -- written just before Saudi opened the taps in 2014. Wow, was I wrong -- I did not see Saudi Arabia making a trillion-dollar mistake. But the thesis holds true: it would have been a lot more valuable to look at the impact of $50 oil vs $70 oil, let's say. Someone suggested looking only at the "high end." Hindsight is 20/20 -- no one saw $50 oil coming. I wonder if they will repeat the study looking at the impact of $30 oil and $40 oil.

Further Thoughts On The Pipeline Protests -- Follow The Money And The Amenities -- April 29, 2017

Earlier I posted this note:
No repeat of the DAPL (link at FuelFix): Trans-Pecos Pipeline ready; protest camp to close. See more of this story at this post. 
Through e-mail a reader and I have been discussing how the Texas Trans-Pecos Pipeline protest was different from that of the DAPL protest. One can imagine all the well-known reasons, most of which I have probably written about before. Regardless, the reader pointed these things out which is as good as anything as I've seen regarding the DAPL protest:
Another thought is that these Pecos folks weren't being paid or at least not as much.  There were many versions of a rumor that [name deleted] didn't want to lose all that Bakken rail business so was paying $150 a day to protestors largely recruited on the West Coast through Craigslist/Facebook ads.  That didn't seem to factor into Pecos.
Standing Rock Indian Reservation ran a propane truck to camp every day until late January - the "campers" were fed by tent kitchens that cooked on propane, and heated their yurts/yurtpees with propane.  Propane refills were free until the tribe voted to disband the camps.  If the Pecos campers didn't have the luxury of a casino where they could swarm the showers, recharge their cell phones, etc., living was more expensive and sparse.

Then there's the fact that Texas doesn't have a reservation, having dealt with the land's previous inhabitants differently.
Of course, unrelated, but I had completely forgotten about Texas and native American reservations (actually, I never thought about it) . Apparently there are three -- but they must be incredibly inconsequential -- reservations in Texas. 

It was well-known that the DAPL protestors were being paid: it appears they were given a "finder's fee" for initial expenses and then paid on an hourly basis based on "activity." I had forgotten (or did not know) about the amenities that the reservation and the casino would have provided.

One wonders how many "homeless" from Portland, OR, went to North Dakota to protest the DAPL. The "Portland homeless" would have been a perfect fit: many/some/most of the "homeless" in Portland live in tents. They would have felt at home on an Indian reservation. 

From what I can tell, the tents in Portland are becoming more and more high-end. If so, one starts to think about the marijuana story in Portland.

Wow, I'm getting off the subject.

As most folks know, there are now "hundreds" of "pot shops" in Portland, OR, now that the state has legalized marijuana. Apparently the "black market" is as vigorous as ever, maybe more so despite all these shops. It turns out that buyers must provide personal information before they can purchase marijuana legally, something some/many/most prefer not to do. 

The personal information requires one's name and an address. Think about that. If the Feds ever decide to crack down on this federally illegal activity -- anyway, I guess it's federally illegal -- they will have books and books with names and addresses. Mostly fictitious. Whatever.

It appears the "going-price" for marijuana at the "pot shops" is $30 for a quarter ounce (or maybe it was a half ounce, I forget). Something tells me, an entrepreneur can buy a pretty nice REI tent selling pot for that price.

Here it is: average price of Portland marijuana: $200/ounce. Or at this site, $12/gram = $360 / ounce. As far as I know there are no recycling fees on plastic bags unlike recycling fees for Coca-Cola's aluminum cans. I know politicians are trying to help us cut back on Coca-Cola due to it being so dangerous to our health. Whatever.

On a different note, there are so many "pot shops" in Portland it begs the question how so many were set up so fast. One rumor is that most "pot shops" had been "virtual," illegal, street, "pot distribution centers." True or not, I don't know, but it certainly makes sense. 

And folks are worried about fracking. LOL.

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America's First Homeless Person

This is pretty cool. In today's WSJ "Review Section," there is an essay on Henry David Thoreau who would be 200 years old this summer (July 12, 2017, to be exact). Expect a lot of HDT books to hit the bookstores this summer. The two mentioned in the WSJ essay are already available, and a third, a comprehensive biography by Laura Dassow Walls, will come out this summer. The two available now:
  • The Boatman, by Robert M Thorson; and,
  • Thoreau and the Language of Trees, by Richrd Higgins
During our four years in Boston, I visited Walden Pond often; it's interesting and a must-see, but it's not particularly awe-inspiring. It's a huge land-locked pond. Surrounded by trees.

Thoreau's bigger story was the Concord River on which he rowed many, many times, and many, many miles for many, many hours. I knew Thoreau kept a journal of his boating on the river but I did not know that his journal was kept for 24 years and goes on and on: two million words long.

The longest I ever kept one continuous journal was from June 9, 1968, to August 14, 1977. On 9 June 1968, I was a junior in High School, not yet 17. On 14 August 1977, I was celebrating my 26th birthday and looking forward to starting my career (and family), having graduated from graduate school just a few weeks earlier.

Then, the high point in the essay, at least for me. Well into the article, this paragraph:
In the early 1850s, Thoreau would accompany William Ellery Channing on what they called "riparian excursions," paddling the Musketaquid, a vessel compromised by the memory of a dead brother , up the Concord Rier, a channel compromised by modern industry, to woodlands, compromised by unprecedented deforestation. 
Had it not been for the blog, I probably would have skipped over the word "riparian." I know I would not have know a) its definition; or, b) its significance.

Wow, the blog has taught me a lot.