Tuesday, February 7, 2017

CLR's Hendrickson Wells; Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, Is Off-Line -- February 7, 2017

The Hendrickson wells:
  • 30013, 2,075, CLR, Hendrickson 12-36H, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum 286K 4/20;
  • 29945, 552, CLR, Hendrickson 11-36H2, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum 253K 4/20; off line as of 8/19; remains off line 9/19; back on line 10/19;
  • 29946, 1,283, CLR, Hendrickson 10-36H, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum 235K 4/20; off-line as of 12/17; back on-line 2/18;
  • 29947, 740,  CLR, Hendrickson 9-36H1, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum 223K 4/20; off-line as of 1/18; back on line 2/18;
  • 29948, 1,585, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 8-36H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t3/17; cum 245K 4/20;
  • 29949, 1,390, CLR, Hendrickson 7-36H2, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t3/17; cum 225K 4/20;
  • 30013, 2,075, CLR, Hendrickson 12-36H, Elm Tree, four sections, t1/17; cum 286K 4/20;
  • 30335, 430, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 3-36H2, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t2/17; cum 271K 4/20;
  • 30336, 787, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 4-36H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t4/17; cum 17K over 18 days; 208K2/20; intermittent production; ff line 2/20; remains off line 4/20;
  • 30337, 1,074, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 5-36H1, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t2/17; cum 17K over 21 days; 196
  • 30338, 974, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 4-36H, Elm Tree, 4 sections, t3/17; cum 26K over 25 days; cum 172K 4/20;
  • 18224, 1,099, CLR, Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 755K 4/20; off-line as of 2/17 as more Hendrickson wells are completed; came back on-line 4/17; huge jump in production; FracFocus -- no evidence of re-frac; no sundry form suggesting this well was re-fracked but the huge jump in production suggests that it must have been re-fracked; I don't think it was re-fracked;
  • 19279, IA/668, CLR, Hendrickson 2-36H, Elm Tree, t12/10; cum 453K 9/19; small jump in production when it came back on line 4/17; off line as of 8/19; remains off line 4/20;
  • 33929, SI/NC-->conf, CLR, Hendrickson Federal 13-25H2, producing as of 2/20; FracFocus does not yet have any frack data (33-053-08193):
    DateOil RunsMCF Sold
    4-202066987351
    3-20201339419155
    2-202022210
News / Updates

March 25, 2018: see comments above for #18224 - look at huge jump in production:

BAKKEN8-20173118525189421392628888250863567
BAKKEN7-20173112330121681338219280176501430
BAKKEN6-2017301693616845174952589524705950
BAKKEN5-201731221862233822567391032588512971
BAKKEN4-20172016275158402838122993162266611
BAKKEN3-20170000000
BAKKEN2-20170000000
BAKKEN1-20170000000
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-201626413165200
BAKKEN10-201618227420442501971183842
BAKKEN9-201624217922102433522308569
 
March 25, 2018: updated graphic --


June 16, 2017: it looks like all wells are back on line.

November, 2016: One of CLR's big wells went off-line recently:
  • 18224, 1,099, CLR, Hendrickson 1-36H, Elm Tree, t12/09; cum 541K 12/16, production profile (last few months):
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-20160000000
BAKKEN11-201626413165200
BAKKEN10-201618227420442501971183842
BAKKEN9-201624217922102433522308569
BAKKEN8-2016313126327137346683733439
BAKKEN7-201631300126773174554399793
BAKKEN6-2016302975294331742123071679
BAKKEN5-2016313154333137349014226179
BAKKEN4-2016303184334440348744262132
BAKKEN3-201631339634835064980439193
BAKKEN2-2016293462329450246134035114
BAKKEN1-2016262832326642734192672359
BAKKEN12-201527285224142773419294475

Graphic of the area:


No data over at FracFocus yet for the pad that is SI/NC.
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Three New Permits -- February 7, 2017

Active rigs:


2/7/201702/07/201602/07/201502/07/201402/07/2013
Active Rigs4042136192184

Three new permits:
  • Operators: HRC (2), BR
  • Fields: Tyrone (Williams), Dimmick Lake (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
No wells coming off confidential list Wednesday.

Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 30730, 188, Slawson, River Rat Federal 2-23-14H, Big Bend, t12/16; cum 1K after 1 day;
  • 30932, 1,077, Whiting, Skunk Creek 1-24-25-16H3, Mandaree, t1/17; cum -
Temporarily abandoned:
  • Whiting (6): four McNamara wells; one Liffrig well; and, one Fladeland well, all in Mountrail County
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DAPL Easement -- To Be Issued NET Wednesday Afternoon -- Senator Hoeven, ND -- February 7, 2017

Via Twitter: DAPL easement won't be issued earlier than Wednesday afternoon according to North Dakota's Senator Hoeven.



From The Washington Post:
While couched in dry language — a letter from Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army Paul D. Cramer to Rep. Raúl M. Grijalva (D-Ariz.) details the 7.37 acres the pipeline would cross on federal property — the decision marks a major blow to activists who had come from across the country last year and gathered on the Standing Rock’s windswept reservation. There, they declared, a tribe and its allies would defy the federal government.
The Honorable Raúl M. Grijalvais the ranking member of the Committee on Natural Resources; Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests and Public Lands.

For those who have forgotten, this is the chain of command:

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US Army Corps of Engineers

This may be of interest:
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EOG Ready To Report Completed DUC? -- February 7, 2017

From an earlier post: EOG has another "400-series" permit --
  • 29190, SI/NC-->TATD --> conf (noted 9/16), EOG, Parshall 406-34H, Parshall. I talked about the EOG "400-series" wells earlier; short lateral; Bakken NOS; middle Bakken target; drilling fluid: salt water in the lateral; spud date, October 14, 2014; FTD date, October 21, 2014; target, Middle Bakken (in zone: 100%); 5,263' lateral; 640-acre spacing; comes off confidential list 5/15/2017; API: 33-061-03264; FracFocus, 10/11/16 - 10/14/16; 1.75 million gallons; water, 74%; sand, 26%. Production to date:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
12-201677552056
11-2016106304822
Something about to be announced in this area? First, the snapshot of the area under discussion:


Production profile for sister well:
  • 17580, 933, EOG, Parshall 18-34H, Parshall, t8/09; cum 299K 12/16;
Monthly Production Data for past year or so:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-201625484044084990262424210
BAKKEN11-201613104593323485864980
BAKKEN10-20160000000
BAKKEN9-2016207077242033431880
BAKKEN8-201631130413592415733210
BAKKEN7-201631133012601115643120
BAKKEN6-201630153515452516914470
BAKKEN5-201631165916621976894370
BAKKEN4-201630161416172725432990
BAKKEN3-201631174817952647154630
BAKKEN2-201629163815911766734370
BAKKEN1-201631184918373047134610
BAKKEN12-201531178418061654261740
BAKKEN11-201530174117283985473030
BAKKEN10-201531183918322617284760

From the south:
  • 29588, 1,256 (reported January 12, 2017), EOG, Fertile 59-0333H, Parshall, t12/16; cum 16K first month (28 days); 
Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2016281614615874319495374489147

Sister wells to #29588 have also been completed:
  • 29589, 1,355,
  • 29590, 929,

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Peak Oil? What Peak Oil? And Coal Is Making A Comeback; The Market And Energy Energy News, T+18 -- February 7, 2017

This Tells Me EVs Are Dead

Ford plans to double SUV output. Link here. The margin on SUV's is incredible. Margin on EVs? LOL. Incentives and government mandates needed to move EVs.

EIA's Short-Term Outlook

Oil Markets:
  • Global oil supply and demand is now expected to be largely in balance during 2017 as the gradual increase in world oil inventories that has occurred over the last few years comes to an end.
  • Improved economic growth in both developed and emerging market countries is expected to contribute to higher global oil demand over the next two years.
  • U.S. crude oil production in 2017 is expected to be about 100,000 barrels per day higher than in 2016, with production rising another 550,000 barrels per day in 2018.
  •  U.S. production of natural gas plant liquids is forecast to grow 250,000 barrels per day in 2017 and other 450,000 barrels per day in 2018.
Gasoline/Refined Products:
  • Warmer-than-normal weather during January kept U.S. demand for distillate fuel, which includes heating oil, at the third lowest level for the month since 2001.
Natural Gas:
  • U.S. natural gas production is expected to increase during 2017, due in part to higher natural gas prices, after output declined last year for the first time since 2005.
Electricity:
  • Natural gas-fired electricity generation will continue to account for the biggest share of U.S. electricity supplies over the next two years, with coal-fired generation coming in a close second.
Coal:
  • Coal use by the U.S. electric power sector is set to increase during 2017 as higher natural gas prices cause some power plant operators to run more coal-fired generation.
  • Higher coal-fired electricity generation in 2017 is expected to contribute to a boost in U.S. coal production this year.
Renewables:
  •  Wind and solar power are expected to account for the most growth in U.S electricity generation by energy source over the next two years.
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OPEC in serious doo-doo? Brent could close below its 50-day moving average for the first time since the November 30, 2016, meeting, when the "organization" agreed to cut production.

NTSB: getting ready to release cause of crude oil derailment that occurred in North Dakota back in 2013. Noted at PennEnergy. The CBR train derailed when the train ahead of it, carrying soybeans, derailed; at the time, said to be due to a broken axle; 40 axles recalled. 

Right to work? Add Missouri (#28) as of yesterday, February 6, 2017; add Kentucky (#27) as of early January. Link here.  New Hampshire could become #29.

Of note:
  • AAPL is on a tear; up nicely today; looks like it hit a 52-week high
  • BRK-B is flat today, but near an all-time high
  • SRE struggling, but still above $102
  • T holding its own; just slightly over $41
  • National OIlwell Varco "soars" after posting narrower-than-expected loss; shares jump 5% on opening

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Opening: fifteen minutes after the opening bell, the Dow and the NASDAQ both hit new highs.

GDP Now: for those who missed it, 1Q17 GDP is now forecast for a 3.4% growth rate. Quite extraordinary -- first Trump quarter now estimated at a 3.4% growth rate. No wonder the market hit new highs today. Oil is down almost a dollar, approaching $52/bbl. Historical data here.

GM: net profits fall year-over-year, but sets records along the way:

  • net profits fall less than 3% y-o-y
  • net profits at $9.43 billion
  • pre-tax adjusted earnings: $12.9 billion -- a yearly record
  • EPS, $6 for the year -- another record
  • several other records
  • company's revenues grew over 9% vs 2015 
  • comment: it's those big SUVs, and cheap gasoline 
  • GM sets record after record, and this is the Fox Business headline:


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Pre-market: another nice day on Wall Street today?

WTI: now below $53 again, right in the sweet spot --
  • enough for shale operators to survive
  • not enough for Saudi Arabia to survive; still hemorrhaging cash
  • gasoline priced nicely for US consumers -- all indications are that gasoline should fall in price but my hunch is that the price of gasoline will melt up as we move into the driving season later this spring
BP earnings (numbers rounded), Financial Times:
  • $400 million vs $200 million one year earlier -- huge?
  • analysts expected more: analysts expected $600 million 
  • shares fall 3% in early trading
  • earnings held back due partly to BP's stake in Russia's Rosneft
  • better earnings due to better crude oil prices
  • says its break-even point: $60 at end of 2017 (probably Brent)
Amazon: AmazonPay very likely to edge out PayPal before it's all over.

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