Friday, October 28, 2016

Making Money On $25 Oil -- October 28, 2016

Updates

November 26, 2016: it is being reported that the breakeven point in the Bakken is now well below $25/bbl.
 
Original Post
 
When Saudi announced it was going to open its spigot, Whiting was the only oil company that I am aware of that said it could make money on $25 oil. So, how did that work out?

From today's Motley Fool and Whiting's 3Q16 earnings report:
Whiting was able to deliver that strong production while only spending $85 million on capital expenditures (capex) during the third quarter, which was flat with the prior quarter. That's an important number because the company's cash flow during the quarter was $151 million as a result of its high-end production, lower operating costs, and improving oil prices. After subtracting capex, Whiting still had $66 million in cash flow to spare, which is a rare feat in the oil industry these days, especially in the Bakken.
Because of the Bakken's high costs and steep production decline rates, producers have struggled to maintain their output during the downturn, which has certainly been the case for Whiting up to this point. The capital-intensive nature of the play meant that generating any excess cash flow would be tough to do. That said, it has not been impossible.
"Steep decline rates" has become a Bakken meme.

Cleveland Takes 2 -1 Lead In Series; Whiting: Takeover Candidate (Again?); Amazon's Brick-And-Mortar Bookstores -- October 28, 2016

World Series: three possibilities right now, bottom of the 9th:
  • Indians win third game, 1 - 0
  • Chicago ties it 1 - 1, taking it to extra innings
  • Chicago wins, 2 - 0
Down to their final out. "Last" batter is 2 for 30 in post-season. Wow, redeemed himself. Gets to first on an error. Steal to third. All the batter at the plate needs is a single. Down to the final strike. Strike out. Cleveland wins, 1 - 0. Heart breaker.

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Back To The Bakken

Could Whiting Re-Emerge As A Takeover Candidate? -- Forbes
Led by 69-year-old CEO Jim Volker, the company has one of the biggest acreage positions and is one of the largest oil producers in the Bakken/Three Forks area within North Dakota’s and Montana’s Williston Basin, where it owns 444,000 net acres in the core oil zones with around 5,500 potential gross drilling locations,
Gheit points out. It also has 129,000 net acres in the oil window of Colorado’s DJ Basin with more than 6,200 potential gross drilling locations, where it is rapidly growing its production in the Niobrara and Codell zones. Whiting believes it can expand production by double-digits at $55 per barrel oil, Gheit says.
Whiting’s shares are already on a bit of an upswing, with its stock increasing by 8% at one point on Thursday to $8.94 per share after releasing third-quarter results. While the company’s loss widened to 47 cents per share vs. analyst consensus of 41 cents, Gheit said the company’s financial flexibility has improved on debt reduction through asset sales and equity exchanges and its operating results “significantly improved.”
For newbies: 444,000 net acres / 1280 acres = 350 drilling units. In the core, they will eventually drill at least 24 wells/1280-acre drilling units. 24 x 350 = 8,400 potential gross drilling locations. And 24 may be less than what we will eventually see.

Plus, they are now adding 2580-acre overlapping drilling units.

From The Motley Fool: three impressive numbers from Whiting's 3Q16 earnings report.
  • production for 3Q16 at high end of guidance;
  • free cash flow of $66 million -- any free cash flow is a rarity in the oil industry these days; especially the Bakken (remember, Whiting was the only company in the Bakken who said it could make money on $25 oil); and, 
  • Whiting has increased its production guidance to 47 million boe full year
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Amazon Brick-And-Mortar Stores

Updates

October 30, 2016: I am still overwhelmed by Amazon. I think most folks consider Amazon a company that sells books over the internet. It does. But, its web services is its most profitable business. Web Services is not online retail. This past quarter that division saw its biggest operating profit margin, even after the company reported a whopping 55% jump to $3.2 billion in quarterly revenue. 

Amazon has three core competencies:
  • online retail
  • Amazone web services (AWS)
  • Prime service
The article notes that
Amazon stepped up its investment this quarter in areas like warehouse build-outs, international expansion, and Prime video content. It's also spending more on shipping and hardware development, all areas of growth that could one day become the fourth largest business for Amazon (alongside online retail, AWS, and Prime service).
Original Post
 
In case you don't have time or the interest to read this post, at least take a look at this: brick-and-mortar Amazon stores. 

As we come to another end-of-the-week, I think the story that stands out most is the "hysteria" over Amazon missing "estimates" for their 3Q16.  It suggests to me that folks are not paying attention. Two things: Jeff Bezos has never seemed all that interested in profits. In that regard, he was a lot like Steve Jobs.

Second, he puts "all" his cash flow back into his company. 
From an earlier post, the numbers were incredible:
  • Amazon reported earnings that were up more than 200% from the same period last year.
  • Net income was $252 million. That's a "positive" (in the green) income. Not a loss. Not a billion-dollar loss. Not a two-billion-dollar loss. 
  • Revenue from Amazon Web Services soared (their word, not mine) 55%, the biggest year-on-year leap in sales, as prices came down and AWS rolled out new features. 
  • Operating margin at AWS increased to almost 32%.
But it gets better.
  • Amazon forecasts as much as a 27% increase in holiday sales this year, compared to last year, which I assume was a record then. 
  • Amazon expects operating income as high as $1.3 billion in 4Q16 compared with $1.1 billion in 4Q15. 
And it still gets better: Amazon's operating cash flow increased almost 50% for the 12 months ended September, and free cash increased to almost $10 billion. 

Now why did Amazon have such a bad quarter in which earnings were up 200% and its web services soared 55% and so on? Because it was spending record amounts on building the company to exceed customers' expectations:
  • Amazon opened 18 fulfilment centers during this quarter, the biggest growth in its network since 2012;
  • and, a whole bunch of other stuff; but,
  • you get the point. 
Earnings were up more than 200% in a quarter in which he added 18 fulfilment centers.

And then look at this for those who had forgotten: brick-and-mortar Amazon stores.

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NFL Ratings

On October 6, 2016, I wrote: Folks come to NFL games to be entertained, not to be reminded of Kaepernick. Today, CBS Boston posts poll showing that national anthem protests leading cause for NFL ratings drop.

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Along With Hunter S Thompson, One Of My Favorite Personalities

Over at The Spectator: ‘The woman is a disaster!’: Camille Paglia on Hillary Clinton.
Talking to Camille Paglia is like approaching a machine gun: madness to stick your head up and ask a question, unless you want your brain blown apart by the answer, but a visceral delight to watch as she obliterates every subject in sight. Most of the time she does this for kicks. It’s only on turning to Hillary Clinton that she perpetrates an actual murder: of Clinton II’s most cherished claim, that her becoming 45th president of the United States would represent a feminist triumph.
‘In order to run for president of the United States, you have to spend two or three years of your life out on the road constantly asking for money and most women find that life too harsh, too draining,’ Paglia argues. ‘That is why we haven’t had a woman president in the United States — not because we haven’t been ready for one, for heaven’s sakes, for a very long time…’
Hillary hasn’t suffered — Paglia continues — because she is a woman. She has shamelessly exploited the fact: ‘It’s an outrage how she’s played the gender card. She is a woman without accomplishment. “I sponsored or co-sponsored 400 bills.” Oh really? These were bills to rename bridges and so forth. And the things she has accomplished have been like the destabilisation of North Africa, causing refugees to flood into Italy… The woman is a disaster!’
A breath of fresh air. 

Bakken 2.0: Ten (10) New Permits; Twelve (12) Permits Renewed; No DUCs Reported As Completed -- October 28, 2016

Active rigs:


10/28/201610/28/201510/28/201410/28/201310/28/2012
Active Rigs3469191180186

Ten (10) new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (4), Hess (3), HRC (2), North Range Resources
  • Fields: Rattlesnake Point (Dunn); Banks (McKenzie); McGregory Buttes (Dunn), Grassy Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments: generally speaking, when seeing multiple permits by same operator, it is pad drilling
Twelve (12) permits renewed:
  • EOG (10): ten Hawkeye permits, all on same pad, Hawkeye permits, section 25-152-95 (see below)
  • Petro-Sentinel (2): one Miller permit and one Coyote Creek permit, both in Bowman County
I don't recall if I've seen Petro-Sentinel before. The company has three permits in North Dakota. The first well, a wildcat, was drilled: dry.  The two renewed permits today are in an established oil field: Coyote Creek, Bowman County.

No DUCs were reported as completed.

The EOG Hawkeye wells have been mentioned many times on the blog. They are tracked here. Ten EOG Hawkeye permits renewed today:




 

Bakken 2.0: Oil Poised For Strong Comeback -- Lynn Helms, NDIC -- October 28, 2016

From the Williston Herald:
The comeback of oil may have been slower than desired or expected, but the numbers building up behind the scenes show it is building for a comeback that may be stronger than some might wish, the state’s top regulator of oil and gas said Wednesday.
“OPEC doesn’t want oil at $25 and they don’t want it at $75,” Lynn Helms, director of North Dakota’s Department of Mineral Resources, said. “That $50 is no miraculous number, it’s where most of the shale plays aren’t going to play.”
I've said the same thing for quite some time now: the sweet for the US when it comes to oil - $46 - $52.  
The reasons he is so confident include the fact that half of the project well numbers are either already in the queue or in the process of being permitted for drilling and completion, as well as moves he is aware of, to keep industry moving in the Bakken.
Scenarios:
He has prepared three price scenarios to help agencies in their planning efforts. These include a price shock scenario, with oil prices suddenly going back to $75 and $80 ranges, as well as a more likely medium scenario, where it sits at $45 a barrel through much of 2017, hits $55 in 2018 and hits $65 in 2019. That one has rig counts at 30, 50 and 70 respectively. 

Wow, CVX; Williston -- Headline Story In Oil & Gas Journal; Soybeans Surging -- October 26, 2016

Wow, CVX:
  • CVX: story here; 3Q16 earnings of $1.3 billion, down from $2 billion in 3Q15; surprises with a dividend hike; stronger than expected earnings; 68 cents vs 37 to 40 cents; wow;  
I remember over the years being told that CVX was the weakest among COP, XOM, and CVX. COP posts a $1 billion loss in 3Q16; XOM under SEC investigation; and CVX surprises with earnings and an increase in the dividend, which of course sent share price up.

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Williston: Headline Story in Oil & Gas Journal
 
From Oil & Gas Journal today on US rig counts: Williston’s biggest jump in 2 years.
US land-based rigs gained 5 units this week to 533, with rigs engaged in horizontal drilling also rising 5 units, reaching 450, up 136 since May 27.
Directional drilling rigs rose 3 units to 54. North Dakota and its Williston basin led the major oil- and gas-producing regions with a 5-unit jump to 35, representing their biggest increase since Aug. 8. 2014.
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Soybeans

Soybean exports power US economy to best performance in two years. -- Reuters.

In 2014 - 2015, North Dakota moved up to 9th place: 202 million bushels in 2014; 190 million bushels in 2015.

In 2012 - 2013, North Dakota ranked 10th on the list for soybeans; 163 million bushels in 2012; 139 million bushels in 2013.

In 2004, North Dakota ranked 10th on the list for soybeans, based on cash receipts.