From The Los Angeles TImes: Trump 47.4% Vs Hillary 40.1% -- Too Close To Call

Screen shot taken on July 28, 2016. The poll is taken daily. This is the first time I've seen it as a banner at the top of the on-line "edition" of The Los Angeles Times.

Best surf rock ever? Too close to call:

Misirlou, Dick Dale and the Del-Tones

WTI: Down To Around $41 -- July 28, 2016; Another Million Insured May Lose Their ObamaCare Coverage -- Anthem

Will we see $39 oil next week?

Previous poll: did operators "jump the gun" on adding rigs in the Bakken, 2H16?

• Yes: 56%
• No: 44%

Market down in early morning trading. Investors are concerned about something:

• jobs report?
• oil dropping to $41 and trending down?
• earnings?
• Fed hinting at rate increase in September?

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Validating Earlier Reports That Southwest Airlines Tried To Save Money Over The Years By Not Investing In Software Scheduling Upgrades

Will Heads Roll?

From The Chicago Business Journal:

Southwest Airline's massive technology outage that caused a near collapse of the carrier's operations nationwide last week continues to reverberate throughout the low-fare airline, and is likely to do so for many days and weeks to come.

An internal memo to Southwest Airlines employees from Craig Drew, senior vice president of air operations, only underscores the magnitude of the meltdown and the damage control with employees that top management is now engaged in as many workers have been outraged by the company's handling of the mess.

Drew began his memo by noting "the last week has been a trial by fire for us at Southwest Airlines, especially for those of you who were on the front line." Drew went on to praise employees for their efforts, noting "I am extremely grateful for everything you did to preserve the relationships with our customers, answering impossible questions and demonstrating the special nature of our people."

Drew tried in his memo to tamp down concerns among many employees that appropriate steps won't be taken to address the meltdown. He wrote, "our technology issue is on the minds of many of you, and I can tell you that the company is swiftly and aggressively investigating the cause so we can mitigate a future breakdown like the one experienced last week."

Sources told me Southwest's board of directors have requested an internal investigation. It remains to be seen how exhaustive the investigation will be and whether it will name names if certain of Southwest's management team fell short in executing their responsibilities.

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Anthem Voicing Concerns On ObamaCare

From the front page of the print edition of The Wall Street Journal, no longer available on-line at WSJ?:

Anthem Inc. said it is now projecting losses on its Affordable Care Act plans this year, a turnaround for a major insurer that had maintained a relatively optimistic tone about that business.

Anthem said it now believed it would see a "mid-single-digit" operating margin loss on its ACA plans in 2016, due to higher-than-expected medical costs. It expects better results next year, because it is seeking substantial premium increases.

Anthem Chief Executive Joseph R. Swedish said that the insurer will re-examine its full-on commitment to selling plans on the health law's exchanges. Anthem will take a "prudent" approach to its future offerings, he said. Anthem has been a major player in the ACA marketplaces, with 923,000 exchange enrollees, and it offers the plans throughout the 14 states where it is a Blue Cross Blue Shield insurer.

The GOP needs to run, not walk, away from ObamaCare. 

The Number Of New Panamax Ships In Range Of The Panama Canal Has Surged -- July 28, 2016

First, some definitions:

Panamax are the mid-sized cargo ships that are capable of passing through the lock chambers of the Panama Canal which are 1,050 ft (320.04 m) in length, 110 ft (33.53 m) in width, and 41.2 ft (12.56 m) in depth. These limits have influenced the ship building companies to build Panamax vessels strictly in accordance with the dimensions (width, length and depth) of the lock chambers and the height of the Bridge of the Americas. A Panamax shouldn’t exceed the dimensional limit of 294,13 m (965 ft) in length, 32,31 m (106 ft) in width and 12,04 m (39.5 ft) draught wise in order to easily and safely fit to the lock chambers and the height of the Bridge of Americas at Balboa. Panamax ships are in operation since the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914.

In 2009, the Panama Canal Authority published the dimensions for New Panamax. The authority has initiated the construction of the third lane of locks having bigger dimension of 427 m (1400 ft) in length, 55m (180 ft) in width and 18.3 m (60 ft) in depth, in order to accommodate larger ships called New Panamax. The new locks are expected to be operational from 2014. With this the Panama Canal will be equipped to handle large-sized New Panamax vessels with a cargo capacity of up to 13,000 TEU.

Currently, Panamax vessels have a cargo capacity of up to 5,000 TEU only. The new bigger locks will also help in reducing the locking time and thus significantly reducing the traffic congestion and the travelling time for ships crossing the Atlantic into the Pacific Ocean and vice versa. The completion of new locks in 2014 is expected to double the tonnage capacity of the Panama Canal.

Using filters one can see the large number of "new Panamax" tankers now in range of the Panama Canal. It appears there is currently one "new Panamax oil tanker" in the Canal.

Job Watch -- July 28, 2016; First Time Unemployment Claims Up 14,000 Over Previous Week

Job watch, before the numbers are released:

The Labor Department will release its weekly data on initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET. 

Economists forecast that first-time claims for unemployment insurance increased last week to 262,000 from 253,000, according to Bloomberg. 

There are seasonal adjustment issues that could make the claims numbers more volatile around this time of year. But overall, the data send a fairly consistent and upbeat message; weekly claims have not risen above 300,000 for the last 72 weeks — the longest streak in 43 years. 

The number: 266,000.

US Initial Jobless Claims is at a current level of 266,000, an increase of 14,000 or 5.56% from last week. This is an increase of 3000 or 1.14% from last year and is lower than the long term average of 359145.4.

The huge surge and the huge miss explain why one can't find this story anywhere -- yet. (8:43 a.m. Eastern Time -- numbers released almost 15 minutes ago -- boiler plate story should be released b now.)

Finally, 8:54 a.m. Eastern Time, we have the report from Bloomberg: the spin continues. The report is not good but Bloomberg reminds us that we were at a "three-month low" last week. LOL.

The number of Americans who filed for unemployment benefits last week rose from a three-month low, consistent with the Federal Reserve’s view of a stronger job market.

Jobless claims increased by 14,000 to 266,000 in the week ended July 23. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for 262,000 applications. The less-volatile four-week average dropped to remain at the second-lowest level since 1973.

Hiring managers are reluctant to pare staff as the labor market tightens and demand continues to expand in the face of subdued global growth prospects. Fed policy makers on Wednesday acknowledged a rebound in June employment and took a step toward raising interest rates before year-end.

“Claims at this point are telling you that you’re really near full employment,” said Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. in New York. “There’s no evidence that layoffs are picking up. The labor market’s chugging along.”

Whatever.

Job watch: Fiat Chrysler to end auto production in the US.

The company may be called Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, but by early next year, it won't be making automobiles in the U.S.

Instead, Fiat Chrysler's U.S. plants will be focusing entirely on pickups and SUVs for the Ram and Jeep brands.

Fiat Chrysler is winding down production of the Chrysler 200 and Dodge Dart and will primarily produce Jeep SUVs and Ram pickups in the U.S. The company's remaining car models will be made in Mexico or Canada.

Ending passenger car production in the U.S. is part of CEO Sergio Marchionne's multibillion-dollar plan to increase profit margins to match competitors. It's a bet that recognizes the growing popularity of SUVs in America, low gas prices and lower cost of producing vehicles  in Mexico.

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The Almost Perfect Late Afternoon Snack 

All It Needed To Make It Perfect: Lefse 

US Shale Gas Shaking Up Global Markets As LNG Trading Surges -- July 28, 2016

From Bloomberg/Rigzone: US shale gas shaking up global market as LNG trading surges. The headline is great. Awesome. Tectonic changes. The Big Stories. My first post with this story as one of the "big stories" was posted on October 4, 2015. This really is a huge story. A lot of Americans are not paying attention but this is just the beginning of the 21st century as the century of American energy.

Shale drillers from Pennsylvania to Texas flooded the U.S. with so much natural gas over the past decade that prices slid to a 17-year low. Now they’re going global, with the potential to upset markets from London to Tokyo.

The U.S. began shale gas exports by sea this year and is projected by the International Energy Agency to become the world’s third-largest liquefied natural gas supplier in five years.

Gas will challenge coal at European power plants and become affordable in emerging markets.

LNG became the world’s second most traded commodity after oil last year and demand will keep growing. U.S. gas is adding to the global glut triggered by new Australian supply and weakening Asian consumption. Shale is having an outsized impact on how LNG is sold, prompting spot trading in lieu of long-term contracts.

"The U.S. clearly changed the picture," Costanza Jacazio, a senior gas analyst with the Paris-based IEA, said in a phone interview. "The US is going basically from zero to the third-largest LNG capacity holder in the space of five years and it brings a new flexible dimension to the LNG market."

With supplies growing, some Asian nations like Japan are contracted to buy more than they can consume, leaving surpluses to be sold. That’s lured major traders into the LNG market in recent years, including Vitol Group, Trafigura Group, Koch Industries Inc., Gunvor Group Ltd. and Noble Group.

The annual capacity of liquefaction plants, where gas is chilled and compressed for shipping, grew to 415 billion cubic meters in 2015 and will expand to 595 billion by 2021.

Cheniere Energy Inc. has sent 19 tankers of the liquefied gas abroad from its Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana. By 2020, five terminals will be operating on the U.S. Gulf Coast and in Maryland. Global export capacity will surge 45 percent and the U.S.’s share will jump to 14 percent from nothing, according to Energy Aspects Ltd.

While U.S. supply is still relatively small, it’s having an impact because the American contracts are flexible. Australian and other foreign processors conclude long-term agreements to send gas to specific countries such as Japan and China. Asian buyers have contracted for more than half of the U.S. supply, but they have the freedom to ship the fuel to anywhere in the world, encouraging spot trading.

And then this, again, about one of my favorite stories:

The widening of the Panama Canal is going to have an impact as well. It’s now able to handle most of the world’s LNG tankers and will reduce time and costs for U.S. cargoes to destinations such as Chile and Japan.

This week, Maran Gas Apollonia became the first LNG tanker to pass through the newly enlarged Panama Canal after picking up a cargo at Cheniere’s terminal in Louisiana. It’s carrying the shale gas to the Far East, according to an official at Maran Gas Maritime Inc. By 2021, the U.S. may dispatch as many as 550 tankers a year through the waterway, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts.

Talk about perfect timing, and completely unplanned: the US shale revolution and the widening of the Panama Canal. 

Are there any Newpanamax ships "at" the Panama Canal today? You can track them here. You can easily scroll down the data base and see if any ships are 300 x 48. 

At this link, scroll down to see the "original post" and The New York Times concern about whether the Panama Canal will work as advertised.