Saturday, December 19, 2015

A Tale Of Two States -- California, Texas -- December 19, 2015

Updates

December 20, 2015: in the original post, it was noted that "since 2006, median wages have declined 6.2% in California, compared with 1.9% for the U.S. overall, according to the California Budget & Policy Center." Mark Perry noted the decrease in household income -- somewhat related.
 
Original Post
 
Why Toyota moved from California to Texas -- Breitbart.
Affordable Texas housing played a key role in Toyota’s 2014 decision to move 3,000 jobs from California to Texas. The housing issue was seen by employees as a big factor in their willingness to relocate from Torrance, California, to Plano, Texas.

“It was really about affordable housing. That’s what started the conversation, Albert Niemi, Jr., dean of the Cox School of Business at Southern Methodist University (SMU) told the Dallas Business Journal.

Niemi said Toyota held focus groups with employees and they said “We’re willing to move. We just want to live the American Dream.”

A study done by Toyota revealed their employees could live in Texas for about one-third the cost of housing in southern California. The Toyota employees kept the same salary levels. “So, in real terms they’re going to triple the affordability of housing they can buy if they move to Texas.
A few months ago, maybe a year ago now, I spoke with a father at an end-of-the-year party for our  daughters and granddaughters playing soccer. He had mentioned that his company had recently moved from California to Texas. He had been born and raised in Texas so he was a) biased, and b) biased. But he did remark that the workers who moved to Texas were incredibly impressed with how nice Texas really was.

The headline for this story was in very tiny font and located in the sidebar of the on-line Los Angeles Times earlier today. When I went back to link it, it was no longer there. A google search found it. California added a paltry 5,000 jobs in November, but the unemployment rate drops to 5.7%.

Reporting in The Los Angeles Times:
California employers added just 5,500 jobs in November, according to federal data — a significant slowdown from more robust monthly gains earlier in the year.
But the state unemployment rate continued its five-year-long decline, dropping to 5.7% in November, the lowest in eight years. The U.S. unemployment rate is 5%.
Despite the lackluster November, California's payroll employment grew 2.6% over last year, faster than all but six other states and better than the national rate of 1.9%.
Construction continued to be the leading growth sector, as the industry continues to rebound from the housing crash. The high-paying professional and technical services industry — including lawyers, accountants, architects and engineers — also recorded some of the fastest job growth in the state.
No doubt the revision next month will show that California actually added 45,000 new jobs in November.

Interestingly enough, despite all that talk about increasing minimum wages, "since 2006, median wages have declined 6.2% in California, compared with 1.9% for the U.S. overall, according to the California Budget & Policy Center." Since 2006. Hmmm?

I still argue that -- what did I say before -- I forget -- 8% still represents full employment in the United States. Ah, yes, here it is, from an earlier post:
Oh, this is interesting. When did this change? When I was growing up, 4% unemployment was always considered "full employment." It appears like many definitions that have been changed under President Obama, the definition of full employment has also changed. From the linked article (I cannot make this stuff up): 
The labor market has been tightening, with the unemployment rate not too far from the 5.0 percent to 5.2 percent range that most Federal Reserve officials consider consistent with full employment. 
Regardless of changing definitions by the Obama administration, I maintain that an unemployment rate of 8% today is equivalent to 4% when I was growing up, with the safety net, the underground economy, and the technology shift. 
That phrase "the unemployment rate not too far from the 5.0 percent to 5.2 percent range that most Federal Reserve officials consider consistent with full employment" was from Reuters but if you google it inside quotes you will find it many places; obviously it has became a meme.

Just to put some things into perspective, my daughter told me that a nursing friend was disappointed that she was not being offered more than the $77,000 salary -- her current salary -- when looking to a move to a "better" nursing job, here in north Texas. I would think $77,000 for a person with a four-year college degree in nursing is a pretty good salary, but what do I know? Speaking of which, Kaiser Permanente is going to "open" a medical school in California next year. Kaiser said they will completely change the paradigm how students are taught.

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Blind Spots
We All Have Them, But They Are Obviously Worse For Ideologues

Updates

December 22, 2015: I guess I was wrong. It turns out President Obama has a foolproof way to keep terrorists from immigrating legally into the US. Reuters is tweeting:
Immigration file shows San Bernardino shooter Tashfeen Malik answered 'no' to questions about whether she had ever received weapons training or engaged in 'terrorist activity' - @Reuters
Original Post
 
President Obama is obsessed with "loopholes" in the nation's gun control laws.

It seems to me the loopholes in monitoring immigrants and loopholes in the process of "vetting" immigrants and the loopholes in the process of issuing visas are woefully worse.

It would have been easier to keep Trashcan Malice out of the US than to keep her from getting guns after she got in, no matter how strict the gun laws.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Week 50: December 13, 2015 -- December 19, 2015

Updates

December 20, 2015: the biggest under-reported story this past week has to do with record imports of crude oil and record storage of crude oil in the US, and that record crude oil is still well below maximum capacity. 

Original Post
 
There were several big stories this week, all of which were anti-climactic. First, the Fed raised "rates" for the first time in seven (7) years -- or as the press says, "for the first time in almost a decade." The Fed raised "rates" a quarter of a percent. And the sun came up in the east the next morning.

The other big news story: President Obama, for some inexplicable reason, repealed the ban on US crude oil exports. Oh, that's right: that was part of a $1.1 trillion spending bill with "goodies" for everyone. President Obama personally thanked the GOP leadership for expediting the bill, which some are calling the Pelosi-Reid Spending Bill For 2016.

The stock market finished the week in free fall, and WTI was around $34 on the television crawler. By the way, I don't think this is being reported strongly enough: the degree to which a county like Saudi Arabia is dumping equities to raise cash.

ISIS (or as President Obama says, ISIL) declared war on Saudi Arabia.

Operations
EOG reports one of the best (maybe THE best) Bakken well: 250K in less than 5 months; more on that well here
Halcon reports a well that produced 10,000 bbls over four days
Random update of QEP State wells with interesting observations

Fracking
DUCs -- Rigzone analysis 

Bakken economy
West Fargo and Williston to receive largest chunk of state's educational grants 
The Williston Wire with several big stories 

If Accurate, That Was Fast -- December 18, 2015

From "Breaking News": President Obama signs $1.1 trillion budget bill bankrolling federal government in 2016 - @AP

If accurate: US repeals ban on exporting crude oil. So now we see. [The reason I wondered about the accuracy, the House passed this bill yesterday or the day before; which means the Senate passed it yesterday or today; and on his way to Hawaii, President Obama signed it. I think this is the fastest any bill has sailed through Congress/White House -- and it's a huge $1.1 trillion that was apparently written by four Congressmen / staffers and lots of lobbyists.

Also from "Breaking News":  Islamic State declares war against Saudi Arabia after formation of 34-state coalition to fight the terror group - @ynetnews

Two (2) New Permits -- December 18, 2015

Active rigs:


12/18/201512/18/201412/18/201312/18/201212/18/2011
Active Rigs64183188186201

Two (2) new permits --
  • Operator: Slawson
  • Field: Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Five (5) producing wells completed:
  • 30883, 442, XTO, Sorenson 31X-28C, Siverston, t11/15; cum --
  • 31078, 1,905, HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-2B-11-8H, McGreogry Buttes, t12/15; cum --
  • 31228, 1,068, Triangle, Sanders 150-100-9-10-4H, Sandrocks, t12/15; cum --
  • 31229, 966, Triangle, Sanders 150-100-9-10-3H, Sandrocks, t12/15; cum --
  • 31245, 825, XTO, Sorenson 31X-28D, Siverston, t11/15; cum -- 
Temporarily abandoned:
  • 19139, PetroHarvester, Erickson et Al 1A, Bottineau County
  • 29297, Cornerstone, Jepsen B-18-6190, Burke County,

State To Give West Fargo, Williston Largest Chunk Of Educational Grants -- Fast Growing Schools -- December 18, 2015

From The Williston Wire:
The state of North Dakota is giving out $5.4 million in grants to fast-growing school districts.
West Fargo will receive the largest amount: $1.15 million.
Williston received the next largest grant of $957,360, while Bismarck was awarded $479,560.
Williston has 307 new students this fall, an increase of 9.1 percent, while Bismarck grew by 357 students, or 3 percent.
Not a lot of difference between $1.15 million and 0.957 million. About $200,000. 

West Fargo is very, very interesting. This city really is growing. Outside the state, and even within the state, I doubt many folks are aware of this. I knew it was growing but I did not know it was growing this fast.

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Nation's Oil Rig Count Jumps 17 -- Largest Jump Since July, 2015

Oil & Gas Journal is reporting:
The overall drilling rig count sat unchanged at 707 during the week ended December 18, 2015. But a 17-unit jump in oil-directed rigs—which was offset by a 17-unit drop in gas-directed rigs—marking their biggest weekly increase since July.
Oil-directed rigs now total 541, still 995 fewer year-over-year. Down 21 units a week ago, they hit their lowest point since April 30, 2010. Gas-directed rigs now total 168.
The overall count remains at its lowest level since September 17, 1999, and is down 1,166 year-over-year.
Land-based units were unchanged at 684, ending their 16-week slide. They’re now down 1,121 year-over-year. Rigs engaged in horizontal drilling gained 5 to 559, still down 797 year-over-year. Directional drilling rigs edged down a unit to 63.
Offshore rigs edged up a unit to 21, representing the 1 and only unit in Alabama waters to come online. Rigs drilling in inland waters halved to 1.
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I'm Beginning To Think Jeb Was Right On This One

Marco Rubio did not vote on the biggest bill of the year, the one he said he would do whatever he could to stop it. 

From The Hill:
The Florida Republican has missed more than half of the Senate's votes since October.
Getting the bill through the House was the biggest challenge; it will easily move through the Senate and President Obama will sign it quickly and with fanfare.