Staggering -- December 17, 2015

Updates 

December 28, 2015: This is why 110 round-trip flights per day will be needed --

Mrs Rojas, 36, is one of an estimated 45,000 Cubans to have left the island this year – the biggest annual exodus since the 1980 Mariel boatlift, which hauled 125,000 people across the Florida Straits. Many now are using a new route – flying in to Ecuador, which has lifted visa restrictions, and then travelling overland through Central America and Mexico. 

Original Post

 

Breaking news: US, Cuba agree to allow 110 round-trip flights per day on US airlines to Cuba, State Department official says.

Staggering.

It will be interesting to hear what size planes we're talking about.

Meanwhile, Zero Hedge says the humiliation is complete: SecState Kerry agrees that Assad "can stay." Decision made after meeting with President Putin. 

Staggering.

Another line in the sand blown away. It will be interesting to see if The New York Times reports this tomorrow. Methinks not.

Random Look At Some BR Wells In/Near Johnson Corner -- December 17, 2015

I've checked these several times, so I think they are correct, but in a long note like this, there may be typographical and factual errors. The format is a little different. After the file number and before the IP (in bold red), I posted the sections of the drilling unit noted on the permit application. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Four-well pad (Blue Buttes):

• 32908,
• 32909, conf, BR, Lillibridge 3B UTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 32910, conf, BR, Lillibridge 3C MBH, Blue Buttes, no production data,  
• 32911, conf, BR, Lillibridge 3D UTFH, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 32912,

Three-well pad:

• 28272, 27/28/33/34-150-96, Pershing, 2,685, BR, Copper Draw 11-27TFH ULW, t11/14; cum 91K 10/15;
• 28273, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,445, BR, Copper Draw 11-27MBH, t10/14; cum 205K 10/15;
• 28274, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,485, BR, Lillibridge 11-27MBH NH, t10/14; cum 151K 10/15;

Four-well pad:

• 27306, run north, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 1523, BR, Lillibridge 21-27TFH, t10/14; cum 100K 10/15;
• 27307, run south, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner,  2,244, BR, Copper Draw 21-27MBH, t10/14; cum 166K 10/15;
• 27308, run north, 15/22/27/34-150-96,  Johnson Corner, 1,683, BR, Lillibridge 21-27MBH, t9/14; cum 95K 10/15;
• 27309, run south, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,004, BR, Copper Draw 21-27TFH, t10/14; cum 154K 10/15;

Four-well pad:

• 23648, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,725, BR, Copper Draw 24-22MBH 3SH, t7/13; cum 202K 10/15;
• 23647, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,886, BR, Lillibridge 24-22TFH 3NH, t7/13, cum 185K 10/15;
• 23646, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,325, BR, Copper Draw 24-22TFH 2SH, t7/13; cum 207K 10/15;
• 23645, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 2,926, BR, Lillibridge 24-22MBH 2NH, t7/13; cum 235K 10/15;

Four-well pad:

• 28348, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 1,920, BR, Copper Draw 41-27TFH, t3/15; cum 109K 10/15;
• 28347, 15/22/27/34-150-96, Johnson Corner, 1,656, BR, Lillibridge 41-27MBH, t3/15; cum 114K 10/15;
• 28346, 14/15/22/23, Blue Buttes -- not in your drilling unit, 2,400, BR, Lillibridge 41-27TFH-ULW, t3/15; cum 118K 10/15;
• 28345, 26/27/34/35-150-96, Croff oil field, 2880, BR, Copper Draw 41-27MBH-ULW, t4/15; cum 121K 10/15;

An old singleton:

• 17271, runs north in 34/27; all of 27/34-150-96, Blue Buttes; 312, BR, Copper Draw 34-34H, Blue Buttes, t6/08; cum 295K 10/15;

Random Update On The Moab - Paradox; Note Oil Sands Development -- December 17, 2015

I track the Moab-Paradox Basin here. Now why would I bring that up tonight? Because a reader sent me this article from the Moab Sun News:

Matteson's company -- MDU -- recently announced the sale of subsidiary Fidelity Exploration & Production, which had been actively developing oil and gas projects in the Big Flat area west of Moab. In recent months, however, the pace of that work has slowed down, according to Matteson.

“They're certainly not doing any additional development,” he said. “I think the wells that have been developed continue to produce.”

Now that MDU has sold almost all of Fidelity's assets, Matteson quipped that the decline in oil prices is no longer having the same impacts on the parent company.

“Not as much as they were,” he said.

Looking at the bigger picture beyond Moab, the extent of low oil prices varies, and can depend on everything from a project's geological setting to the different types of drilling techniques that companies utilize.

“It's very difficult to give you one price point and say it affects everybody the same way,” Matteson said.

Indeed, while many of its neighbors in the Book Cliffs appear to be struggling, Canadian company U.S. Oil Sands of Calgary is moving forward with the development of its controversial PR Spring oil sands mine near the Grand and Uintah County lines.

The company initially hoped to begin commercial-scale oil production in the final quarter of 2015, although U.S. Oil Sands CEO Cameron Todd said his company is now on track to reach that milestone in the first three months of 2016.

Todd said the projected holdup is not due to the first assumption that comes to mind – namely, a drop in oil prices. Instead, he said, it's the result of “nagging delays,” including a lag in equipment deliveries, as well as the final engineering work on its piping and electricity, among other things.

With regard to MDU in the Moab - Paradox Basin, this could very well be the theme song:

Those Were The Days, Mary Hopkin

NIne (9) New Permits --Thursday, December 17, 2015

Nine (9) new permits --

• Operators: QEP (6), Slawson (3)
• Fields: Spotted Horn (McKenzie), Big Bend (Mountrail)
• Comments: the QEP permits are for six wells on Lot 10, section 1-150-95

Six oil and gas (6) permits were renewed --

• Hess (4), all EN-Madisyn in Mountrail County; and,
• MRO (2), an Alvina permit and a Whitney permit, both in Dunn County; 

One (1) producing well was completed:

• 30398, 1,891, Newfield, Gariety 150-98-6-7-4H, Siverston, 3 miles north/1 mile east of Watford City, 84% drilled in the primary 15-foot target zone, 100% of the time in the middle Bakken, t6/15; cum 114K 10/15; 

Active rigs:

	12/17/2015	12/17/2014	12/17/2013	12/17/2012	12/17/2011
Active Rigs	64	182	186	183	200

Wells coming off the confidential list Friday:

• 28281, 2,606, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-17C-8-7H, Eagle Nest, a Three Forks well, 33 stages, 5 million lbs, t6/15; cum 77K 10/15;
• 31143, SI/NC, XTO, Ryan 14X-9E, Siverston, no production data,
• 31244, SI/NC, SM Energy, Dusty 14B-9HS, West Ambrose, no production data,

*********************************

28281, see above, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-17C-8-7H, Eagle Nest:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2015	14330	12884
9-2015	17516	14125
8-2015	13653	11147
7-2015	17906	0
6-2015	12695	0

Johnson Corner Oil Field

Johnson Corner is a very small field located about 14 miles westnorthwest of Watford City, one of the hotter plays in the North Dakota Bakken. It is only 8 sections in size, 1 - 2 sections wide and 4 sections long.

All sections are now held by production and most sections have eight to ten horizontals, including some running along the section line due to 2560-acre spacing throughout. The entire field is also spaced at 1280-acre drilling units.

It appears that the oil field is pretty much owned by Burlington Resources.

It's a confusing field to sort out: because the field is small and many of the wells are 2560-acre spacing, they could be sited in Johnson Corner oil but are considered part of another oil field. This must affect data for NDIC when determining how much oil comes from which oil fields. Whatever. Here is an example of many wells sited in one section. 

Sited in section 10-150-96, a vertical Madison/Bakken well:

• 9519, 206/15, Siana Oil & Gas, Tank 1-3, Johnson Corner, vertical Bakken/Madison; t11/82/t10/84; cum 57K 10/15; cum 33K 10/15;

The horizontals below are all in Johnson Corner but because the wells are on various 2560-acre drilling units, some end in Camel Butte oil field or Blue Buttes oil field. I could be wrong on this but that's what it looks like to me.The permit applications provide specifics. I think this information is correct but it is confusing and there may be errors. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Sited in section 10-150-96 and run north into Camel Butte, 2560-acre drilling unit, sections 3/10-150-96 & sections 27/34-151-96, except for 18047 which is a 1280-acre well:

• 18047, 1,620, BR, Teton 21-3H, Johnson Corner, t9/10; cum 207K 10/15;
• 29427, 2,766, BR, Teton 2-8-10MBH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 22K 10/15;
• 29428, 1,844, BR, Teton 3-8-10MBH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 16K 10/15;
• 29429, 2,124, BR, Teton 5-8-10MBH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 17K 10/15;
• 29430, 2,044, BR, Teton 6-8-10TFSH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 18K 10/15;

Sited in section 10-150-96 and also run north into Camel Butte, 2560-acre drilling unit; sections 3/10-150-96 & 27/34-151-96:

• 29461, 2,926, BR, Remingteton 8-8-10MBH ULW, Blue Buttes, sections 2/3/10/11-150-96, t7/15; cum 17K 10/15;
• 29462, 2,565, BR, Teton -8-10TFSH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 18K 10/15;
• 29463, 2.645, BR, Teton 7-8-10MBH, Camel Butte, T7/15; cum 19K 10/15;
• 29464, 2,525, BR, Teton 6-8-10MBH, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 21K 10/15;

These four wells are sited in 4-150-96 but run into the sections as the wells above, 

• 29048, 2,112, Teton 2-1-3MTFH, sections 3/4-150-96 & 27/34 - 151-96, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 29K 10/15;
• 29049, 1,560, Tetonorman 1-1-3UTFH ULW, sections 3/4/9/10 - 150-96, Johnson Corner, t6/15; cum 31K 10/15;
• 29050, 1,584, BR, Kings Canyon 2-8-34UTFH, Camel Butte, sections 3/10-150-96 & 27/34-151-96, Camel Butte, t7/15; cum 30K 10/15;
• 29051, 2,064, BR, Deking 1-8-34MBH-ULW, sections 27/28/33/34-151-96, Camel Butte, t6/15; cum 31K 10/15;

See also this post of other wells in / near Johnson Corner.

***************************

Bakken 101

The post above regarding Johnson Corner provides another data point regarding the Bakken. The NDIC tracks how much each oil field produces. This is a good example of how difficult it is to sort this out. In this case, because Johnson Corner is a small field and there are 2560-acre spacing units extending into neighboring fields, one can have a 4-section well draining oil from two different fields, from Johnson Corner and Camel Butte, for example. The well has to be "assigned" to one field or the other. So a Johnson Corner/Camel Butte well (50/50) might be "assigned" to Camel Butte. I'm not quite sure how the "assignment" is made but this field offers an opportunity to see if there is process.