Sunday, December 13, 2015

Reason #23 Why I Love To Blog -- Reading My Own Blog -- December 23, 2015; Ledecky Sets New All-Time Record In The 1000-Yard Freestyle

At the sidebar at the right, at the very, very bottom, about as far down as you can go before you hit Mexico, you will see the last link, under the section called "Bored?"

I had not visited the one link in that section for some time. Wow, wow, wow. A must read. A travelogue from Lisa on her recent cross-country trip. If you read the intro and you are from North Dakota you will be hooked. But if you start to sense disappointment by paragraph 3, best martini, do not give up. At least skip ahead to paragraph 5.

Thank you. That is all. 


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The Ledecky Page

First sub-9:00 1000 free in history. SwmSwam is reporting:
Katie Ledecky has become the first woman ever under nine minutes in the 1000 yard freestyle, going 8:59.65 at the Nation’s Capital Swim Club Invite Sunday.
Ledecky popped the time at the 2015 NCAP meet hosted at the University of Maryland, shattering the American record in savage fashion.
In an already star-studded career, this is among Ledecky’s best swims ever relative to the rest of history in the event. The previous American record was a 9:10.77 set by Katie Hoff in 2007, meaning Ledecky is a full 11 seconds faster than anyone else in history.
Ledecky previously approached that record, going 9:11.31 in November of 2014, but her swim today still stands up as a drop of 11.66 seconds en route to the fastest swim in history.
Hoff’s time was also the 17-18 National Age Group record, so that mark transfers to Ledecky’s trophy case as well. Ledecky also now holds the U.S. Open record, with Hoff’s 9:10.77 standing as all three records since 2007.
Ledecky’s splits ranged from 26.8 to 27.5, with twin 25.5s bookending the swim on the opening and closing 50s. Maybe most impressive was that she was out in 4:30.90 to the 500 and actually negative split the race, coming home in 4:28.75 over the final 500 yards.
As individual 500s, those would rank as the 8th and 5th fastest 500 yard freestyles in history. Nobody besides Ledecky herself has swum a 500 free faster than 4:28.75, and she did it immediately after swimming a 4:30.90.
Earlier in the meet, Ledecky had put up the fourth-fastest 200 free of all-time at 1:41.04, posted a 4:01.69 in the 400 IM and won the 500 free in 4:28.17.

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Added December 15, 2015

The video of the post-race interview with Katie after the Ledecky 1,000-yard freestyle under 9:00 minutes was just posted on YouTube. Here is the video of the race itself.

Statoil Reports A Typical Statoil Well; EOG/XTO With Seven More DUCs: 7/8 Bakken Wells Not Completed -- December 13, 2015

Monday, December 14, 2015
  • 24096, 3,148, Statoil, Jay 24-13F 1H-R, Banks, true vertical depth of 11,137 feet; 15 - 20' flare; gas reached upwards of 8,000 units; t10/15; cum 19K 10/15;
  • 30788, SI/NC, XTO, Rita 44X-34D, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
  • 30903, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 72-1807H, Parshall, no production data,
Sunday, December 13, 2015
  • 30978, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 79-15H,  Parshall, no production data,
  • 31146, SI/NC, XTO, Ryan 14X-9B, Siverston, no production data,
  • 30902, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 73-1807H, Parshall, no production data,
Saturday, December 12, 2015
  • 30979, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 78-15H, Parshall, no production data,
  • 30901, SI/NC, EOG, Austin 84-1807H, Parshall, no production data,
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DUCs

For newbies, when you think about these DUCs, remember this: back in April, 2015, 24/7 Wall Street was reporting that nationwide -- the US -- the shale community (mostly the Eagle Ford, the Bakken, and the Permian) was adding 350,000 bbls of oil per day (bopd) -- again, that's 350,000 bbls per day -- "underground storage" in the form of DUCs -- drilled to depth, but not fracked. At that time, and probably still true today, 350,000 bopd exceeds the amount Libya is producing or getting to market. Generally oil that gets to market is being refined within a few weeks or going into storage for refining as soon as possible. So much of that 350,000 bopd of oil coming out of Libya is actually being consumed. But oil stored in DUCs is not even close to being used, and it is (or at least, was) accumulating at the rate of over 300,000 bopd.

To me, that seems incomprehensible, and I may be misreading something, or making wrong assumptions, but if it is accurate ... it seems it will take awhile to deplete all that DUC oil, much less use up the excess that OPEC is bringing to market every day. 

365 x 300 = 100,000 thousand bbls every year from shale being stored underground. One hundred million bbls every year. Global demand: about one hundred million bbls daily.

This was back in April, 2015:
The pullback is likely due to a report from Bloomberg Thursday that claimed more than 4,700 drilled wells in the United States have not been completed while oil producers wait for prices to rise again. More than 1,500 wells in the Permian Basin, 1,250 wells in the Eagle Ford and 632 wells in the Bakken have been drilled but not completed.
632 Bakken DUCs then? Now it's around 1,000.

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The War Natural Gas Is Waging On Coal

It looks like the real "war on coal" is the one being waged by natural gas. Don sent me this a couple of days ago:
The price of natural gas delivered to Northern Border at Watford City is down $0.05 to $1.65/MCF, from the most recent Director's Cut (December 9, 2015).
The 2014 MDU annual report says the average coast of coal per MMbtu, including freight was $1.74 per MMbtus.
Natural gas mcf to btus conversion can be done at this site. 

Could We Actually See US Crude Oil Being Exported Beginning In 2016? -- December 13, 2015

This is moving along much, much faster than I ever expected, but then I never expected Bakken oil to trade at $27/bbl and still maintain near record production. Google us oil export. Too many articles to link, so this one Bloomberg article will be the proxy for all of them: Senators Close in on Oil-Export Deal Amid Tax-Break Talks.
Senate negotiators are nearing a deal to allow unfettered U.S. crude oil exports for the first time in 40 years, though differences remain on renewable-energy tax credits that Democrats are demanding in return.
While any agreement could still collapse in the coming days -- the deal faces opposition in the House -- lawmakers are weighing the extension of solar and wind tax credits for as long as five years in exchange for lifting the crude-export restrictions, which were established to counter the energy shortages of the 1970s.
Tax breaks are part of the discussion, though lawmakers are still negotiating the length of wind- and solar-energy tax extensions and whether they should be phased out, said a Senate Democratic leadership aide.
If agreed to and approved by Congress, repeal of the nation’s ban on most crude oil exports would mark the most significant shift in U.S. oil policy in more than a generation. Repeal, benefiting oil producers including ConocoPhillips, Hess Corp. and Continental Resources Inc., would come at a time when the industry is cutting jobs to deal with a global glut in crude oil and the lowest prices in seven years.
Talks for a deal are under way as envoys from 195 nations reached an agreement to limit fossil-fuel pollution and curb the effects of climate change.
It will be interesting if Congress agrees to extending tax cuts for intermittent energy. My hunch is they do, if they get the rest. President Obama would need that "cover" (tax credits for intermittent energy) if he were to go along with this.

Having just come from the global warming conference in Paris, I don't know how Obama could approve US oil exports which will only encourage more fossil fuel use. This will be very interesting to watch.

But what a great poll. My hunch is he will veto the bill unless Reid, Pelosi, Schumer let him know that the veto will be overridden, and even still, he made veto the bill, sticking to his principles, and requiring Congress to override the veto.

So, the poll:

Will President Obama allow the US to export crude oil beginning in 2016?
  • yes
  • no
  • yes, with lots of conditions including tax credits for wind/solar
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US Crude Oil Exports

If the US were to allow unfettered US crude oil exports, this would finally make oil a true commodity (unless I'm missing something). The US is the last cartel, not allowing exports (with minor exceptions). OPEC is no longer a cartel, allowing its members to produce as much as they want and to sell their oil wherever they can find a buyer.

If the US were to allow unfettered US crude oil exports, we might finally get to see how much oil Saudi Arabia could produce.

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Bakken Economy -- December 12, 2015; NDSU Going For 5-Peat In FSC Football

FSC Football: 2015 FCS playoff bracket final four: North Dakota State going for 5-peat.
The 2015 FCS Playoff Final Four is set. The 24-team field has been winnowed down to only four teams, and those final four include some surprises. Jacksonville State, the top overall seed in the field this year, will face Sam Houston State, and on the other side of the bracket, No. 7 seed Richmond will take on No. 3 North Dakota State.
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Bakken Economy

From the Williston Wire:
Proceeds from the voter-approved Public Safety Sales Tax are going to help purchase $3 million in new equipment and vehicles for the Williston Fire Department. 

The first phase of a new Williston wastewater treatment plant is complete, greatly reducing the impact the growing city is having on the Missouri River. New equipment at Williston's plant is allowing the city to significantly cut back on how much wastewater is discharged into a marsh where several fish kills were reported earlier this year. 

In Crosby, the days of $3,000 a month rent may be over. Landlords and property managers in Crosby last week shared their observations about the apparent bursting of Crosby's housing bubble. The developer of Crosby Flats and the Northern Lights Apartments placed the occupancy of his Crosby rentals at about 80 percent. Rents may be dropping about 30% in Crosby.

Minot: The Magic City Apartment Association is pushing for an end to the development of more low-income housing projects in Minot, arguing that the city has plenty of affordable housing already. 

The City of Tioga is gauging its rental costs and occupancy.  Olson Apartments and Olson Duplexes has been hovering around 60 to 65 percent full since the slowdown in the oil industry began last year. Like Williston, the Tioga Commission has signaled it's considering whether to eliminate some of the temporary housing in town.
  
Senator John Hoeven has announced that the U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Development Agency has approved a $600,000 loan guarantee for Northland Health Partners Community Health Center in Ray. The funding will be used to renovate an existing building into a medical and dental clinic. 
Sears opens in Sidney, "store in a store" concept.

Delta suspended its twice-daily flights between Dickinson and Minneapolis on December 1, citing a lack of profitability and demand. Another issue weighing on the airport is a slump in boarding numbers. About 37,000 boardings were recorded through October this year, which is around a 24 percent decrease to last year's boardings over the same period last year. 

GE Is Looking To Buy Halliburton Drilling Assets, As Well As Some Baker Hughes Completions Operations -- December 12, 2015

Updates

December 12, 2015: see first comment. GE has a brand new facility, 52,000 square feet, north of Williston. Oppidan was the developer. This is not the first time "Oppidan" has come up in the Bakken. For more, search "Oppidan" at this website. Here is one example. Oppidan projects in the Bakken at the Oppidan website at this link.
 
Original Post
 
I think one of the most interesting companies to have watched over the years as the economy has changed has been GE.

I don't invest in GE, never have, and doubt that I ever will. But during my Air Force days we studied the company for various reasons, and I never lost interest in the company.

I was vaguely aware of their financial arm but did not pay much attention to it. I was fascinated with their early (and poorly-thought-out) move into wind energy. I don't know how their wind division is doing any more, but about two or three or four or five years ago, it was very noticeable that GE was moving out of renewable energy and into oil and gas.

I first wrote about that back in 2011, "A Second Look at GE Diversifying Into ... Oil." Then in 2013, "Two Years Ago, GE And Renewable Energy Seemed Synonymous; Now? Not So Much."

In February, 2014, there was the story that GE closed on a huge deal to provide gas turbines for Exelon's power plants in Texas. February 26, 2014, GE's Immelt, President Obama's economic czar, said "the age of natural gas is here."

Just the other day I posted a story on GE's new huge and very efficient natural gas turbines going into Pennsylvania. The list goes on and on.

Today, to add to that list, another huge story. Bloomberg/Rigzone is reporting that GE is in serious talks to acquire Halliburton's drilling assets. I assume there are at least two story lines here: Halliburton and Baker Hughes have to spin off some assets for regulators to approve their merger; and, GE probably sees a great opportunity to acquire a lot of "stuff" at a really great price. I had not read the story until just now. Here's the lede and a bit more:
General Electric Co. is in advanced talks to buy the drill-bits and drilling-services divisions of Halliburton Co., which is divesting assets to win antitrust approval for its takeover of Baker Hughes Inc.
Selling both the drill-bits and drilling-services businesses could have fetched as much as $5 billion in total for the oilfield services provider, people with knowledge of the matter said earlier this year, when the units were each put on the block. It is not clear how much the decline in oil prices -- which have been hovering near six-year lows -- may have affected their respective market values.
GE is also exploring bids for other assets that Halliburton is seeking to unload, including parts of Baker Hughes’s completions operations, two of the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. No final deal with GE has been reached, and Halliburton may still decide to sell some or all of the other assets to other buyers, said the people.
When it first announced plans to acquire Baker Hughes in November 2014 -- a deal valued at $34.6 billion in cash and stock deal at the time -- Halliburton said it would divest assets with revenue of as much as $7.5 billion.
The first assets put up for sale in April were Halliburton’s drill-bits and drilling services business. The former makes the tips of drills for digging wells and could fetch as much as $2 billion in a sale, people familiar with the matter said in March.
The drilling-services arm, which operates as Sperry Drilling, uses data to track and steer the direction of drill bits and may sell for as much as $3 billion, the people said at the time.
It's a long article and there is much, much more at the link.

GE had a small footprint in Williston, ND, when I was there some years ago, but I do not know if their footprint has grown or remained the same. All I remember is a relatively small facility one block east of the Million Dollar Way, well south of Walmart.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

I still think Texas is one of the friendliest states in the nation. [Actually, everywhere I go in the states, with some exceptions, I find the people overwhelmingly friendly.] This morning after dropping off our oldest granddaughter at school for a cross-country track meet, I stopped at the Shell service station on the corner of Pool Road and Ira E. Woods to fill the tank. I walked into buy a cup of coffee. When I went up to the counter to pay for the coffee, I thanked the clerk for being open so ear -- it was 6:40 a.m. (I'm sure they are open 24/7). He thanked me and told me to have a "good day." No charge for the coffee.

By the way, it appears that there are at least five major brands of coffee competing for my attention. Of course, Starbucks. Then, next door when the grocery store changed ownership, they dropped Starbucks and replaced it with Peet's. For some time now, Dunkin' Donuts has been on the grocery store shelves in this area, but no free-standing franchises. That's three. Of course, there is also McDonald's. But the coffee brand that really seems to be saturating the area with promotions and visibility is something called "Community Coffee" in distinctive burnt orange/light brown packaging and cups. I had not heard of Community Coffee until recently and have not seen it on any of my cross-country travels.

Well, there it is -- it began as a small family operation in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 1912, but it certainly looks like it has moved to a new level. I find it better tasting than Starbucks that I have at home, but when one says Starbucks it can mean about 23 different coffees and concoctions. Right now, it appears Community Coffee has two choices, regular and decaf, although I haven't seen decaf; but then again I didn't look for decaf.