Saturday, November 28, 2015

Asia's Perspective On Oil As OPEC Meeting Draws Near -- November 26, 2015

From Bloomberg/Rigzone:
Oil buyers in Asia are sure of one thing as OPEC prepares to meet: They’ll emerge as winners from the group’s rift over production.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will gather Dec. 4 in Vienna, where Iran has said it will announce plans to boost production by 500,000 barrels a day. That may further lift the 12-member group’s output, which has exceeded its target for 17 months. The increase in volumes would exacerbate a global glut and benefit the biggest oil- consuming region’s refiners, which are seeking cheaper sources of crude.

OPEC is forecast to stick with its strategy of defending market share by maintaining output and driving down higher-cost production elsewhere, according to analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg . That’ll leave members including Saudi Arabia free to continue pumping even amid calls from Iran to make room for its extra supply after international sanctions over its nuclear program are lifted.

“This is probably the best time we’ve ever had as a buyer,” said Kim Woo Kyung, a spokeswoman for SK Innovation Co., South Korea’s largest refiner. “We are enjoying an overflow of oil.”

OPEC has exceeded its output target of 30 million barrels a day since June 2014 as it pumps near record amounts of crude, boosted by increases from its biggest members, Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The group’s strategy to defend market share has helped lift refining margins for Asian processors, who have been treated to a steady flow of cheap cargoes from the Middle East to Mexico, Nigeria and Russia.

Profits from turning crude into naphtha, which is used to produce gasoline as well as petrochemicals, surged to $9.42 a barrel this month, the highest level since at least May.  Purchasing costs for refiners have slumped. Japan, Asia’s second-biggest oil consumer, spent an average of $51.22 a barrel in September for supplies, down from $113.47 in January 2014.
Much more at the link.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

What seven classic novels have to say about the stages of life, from Edward Mendelson's The Things That Matter, c. 2006. Here are the seven classic novels:
  • Frankenstein, Mary Shelley
  • Middlemarch, George Eliot
  • Mrs Dalloway, Virginia Woolf
  • To The Lighthouse, Virginia Woolf
  • Between The Acts, Virginia Woolf
  • Wuthering Heights, Emily Brontë
  • Jane Eyre, Charlotte Brontë
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Sweeping Up

In anticipation of her grandmother coming home later this week, Sophia is sweeping the kitchen floor.

Sweeping Up

Week 47: November 22, 2015 -- November 28, 2015

There is no evidence of global warming here in North Texas; I had to turn on the heat to take off the chill, but the furnace -- or whatever it is that provides heat in these small apartments -- is now off and it's a comfortable 67 degrees. Last night, over at my daughter's McMansion it was way too warm; they have the thermostat set at 71 degrees. They were gone for the weekend and I took advantage of the opportunity to watch some football on their big screen television.

Wow, that was a digression. All I had planned to do was link the only story I plan to post with regard to all the excitement and hyperbole that will surround the 2015 Paris Peace Talks on Global Warming, where every western leader will be padding his or her resume to hopefully contend for the 2016 Nobel Peace Prize.

The article, of course is  -- in fact, put this much in google: your complete guide to the climate debate -- see how few letters you have to put into the search box to get the WSJ article to show up. You will be surprised. I put in this much: your complete g and the article was the first hit. I didn't even get past the "g." I've read enough of it to tell me it is all I need to post on the 2015 Paris Peace Talks on Global Warming. The only reason folks will be tuning in is to see if ISIS (or as President Obama calls the JV team, ISIL) is able to crash the party.

The link to the WSJ article: http://www.wsj.com/articles/your-complete-guide-to-the-climate-debate-1448656890. I hate to think this is the 144,865,890th article the WSJ has had on the climate debate.

I suppose the big story of the week was the fact there is a glimmer of hope that Saudi Arabia has decided to hold the line at $40. Unfortunately, the fly in that oily soup is the fact that there are more than 1,000 wells waiting to be fracked in North Dakota and probably twice that many in Texas.

At the very end of the week, a reader sent me a fairly reliable hint that Shell United States is coming to North Dakota. I have problems with Shell. I really don't know whether it's Shell, or Royal Dutch Shell, and until the spill in the Gulf of 2010, I kept confusing BP and Shell. But whatever, at least someone has credible information to suggest "Shell" will enter the Bakken in a big way. I have a post on it in draft but won't post it until the credible information is ... well, a bit more credible. I don't want to get anyone into trouble.

So, what were the big stories last week? Not many. Perhaps the highlight was the autumn portfolio of North Dakota / Minnesota photographs sent by Vern Whitten.

Operations
Lime Rock Resources finally posts their Russian Creek acquisition
October's North Dakota oil production remained flat month-over-month
a second bench Three Forks well looks very promising
a birthday greeting to Mr Woodrow Star "A" 1, 57 years young

Flaring
EIA posts an update on flaring in North Dakota 

Refinery
Proposed Devils Lake refinery on hold

Miscellaneous
I formally added "propane" to the "next big story" page; it's been there all along but a bit hidden
the US officially gets on the top ten list of countries with proved oil reserves 
the US increased its proved reserves estimate for sixth year in a row
Katie Ledecky named female athlete of the year -- a three-peat
North Dakota's shortfall grows

Friday, November 27, 2015

Closing The Loop: Lime Rock Resources Announces Closing Its Third Acquisition In The Williston Basin -- The Russian Creek Acquisition -- November 27, 2015

Press release here, dated November 20, 2015.
Lime Rock Resources, acquirers and operators of producing oil and gas properties in the United States, today announces that it has successfully closed a third acquisition in the Williston Basin.
The Russian Creek acquisition of acreage and producing wells in the Williston is the Lime Rock Resources funds’ largest acquisition to date. The Lime Rock Resources team has begun leveraging operational synergies with its other Williston Basin properties and applying its operational expertise to the large-scale asset.
The three Williston Basin acquisitions:
  • West Stanley
  • Sanish
  • Russian Creek
The entire description of the Russian Creek acquisition:
Lime Rock Resources acquired the North Dakota and Montana oil-weighted properties in the Williston Basin in 2015 from a large, publicly traded E&P company.
The OXY USA Russian Creek acquisition back in 2010 is described at this post. It is not known if the Lime Rock Russian Creek acquisition is identical to the OXYUSA Russian Creek acquisition.

No New Permits; Eighteen Permits Renewed -- November 27, 2015

Active rigs:


11/27/201511/27/201411/27/201311/27/201211/27/2011
Active Rigs64183191185202

No new permits.

Eighteen permits renewed, including:
  • Emerald Oil, 4; two Noonan Federal permits; two D Annunzio permits, all 4 in McKenzie County
  • Oasis, 5: five Jensen permits, Williams County
  • BR, 4: Elizabeth Stroh and Cecilia Stroh wells in Dunn County
  • CLR, 3: three Omlid permits, McKenzie County
CLR canceled four permits: two Garner permits and two King permits, all in Williams County

Post-Shut-In-Production Jump -- January 29, 2017

The date-time stamp will show something from 2015 or thereabouts. I am using an old "draft" post to place this note for various reasons.

Posting this now without comment. [Note: only two days of production in November, 2016; I will come back to this well in a couple of months.]

Before choosing this well to look at, I specifically looked for an older well in the Williston area where much more activity has taken place after this well was originally completed.

20510, 705, Zavanna, Everett 1-15H, Stockyard Creek, t1/12; cum 245K 11/16;

This is the graphic for this area:


Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-201621691612648180
BAKKEN10-201631706425849181413520
BAKKEN9-2016302661277523946844638314
BAKKEN8-201631310330372845836566481255
BAKKEN7-20163119231813153336802629589
BAKKEN6-2016782881443910839781
BAKKEN5-20160000000
BAKKEN4-20160000000
BAKKEN3-20160000000
BAKKEN2-20160000000
BAKKEN1-20160000000
BAKKEN12-201515475410786814462128
BAKKEN11-20153038363521283772276514266
BAKKEN10-20153144344398350686557251942
BAKKEN9-20153049244864364986057305853
BAKKEN8-2015263587357521224637419951
BAKKEN7-20159780405104991873549
BAKKEN6-2015306569650133682418823534207
BAKKEN5-2015317706768838791290697512693
BAKKEN4-20153010108101025605148581435457
BAKKEN3-2015311195812033577416088123183308
BAKKEN2-201528106821057376021487096644789
BAKKEN1-201531100309850778513742122391041
BAKKEN12-20143113375136001108419405134625481
BAKKEN11-2014301636716217263632357722902228
BAKKEN10-201474801417613663583729692764
BAKKEN9-20140000000
BAKKEN8-201469671437789120701118
BAKKEN7-201424487548525693566605308
BAKKEN6-201412196315933609211501906
BAKKEN5-20141130001500
BAKKEN4-20141535305427249025
BAKKEN3-20141514742071145918991572103
BAKKEN2-20142857016269666072766607252
BAKKEN1-20141337092594629947204103423
BAKKEN12-20130000000
BAKKEN11-2013119361410591115094145
BAKKEN10-20133133333106156544763336678
BAKKEN9-201330303331881505352630910
BAKKEN8-201331380734482016404223891191
BAKKEN7-20131525862340148118971147526
BAKKEN6-201311123920485541853162564
BAKKEN5-20132447364140239251804081741
BAKKEN4-20130000000
BAKKEN3-20132133933344179442903794167
BAKKEN2-201376471000260101883381
BAKKEN1-2013293348342013385776532915
BAKKEN12-201231395939791284716456361066
BAKKEN11-20123039213456148372446171626
BAKKEN10-201231444452321625693835662910
BAKKEN9-201230469841711546752156101464
BAKKEN8-20123147164303159967135625626
BAKKEN7-201228618870012033949778411239
BAKKEN6-201221458344171588549432681913
BAKKEN5-2012317260705129171203686202954
BAKKEN4-2012308165845928681153169284156
BAKKEN3-2012217138640629881019687641030
BAKKEN2-201228119281177646721576192136116
BAKKEN1-20121912597122301255215977015679
BAKKEN12-20111323019187720742