There's A Rift In Iraq -- The Washington Post, August 9, 2015

The Washington Post reports what was predicted months, if not years, ago. Even Joe Biden knew. There's a "rift" in Iraq. Who would have thought? A rift in Iraq? Political differences in Iraq? Shocking! The Washington Post is reporting:

Iraq’s Kurdish region has begun to sell oil independently of the central government, a move that is exacerbating divisions in the country as it struggles to turn back Islamic State militants.

The Kurdish region last month stopped transferring oil to the state as it had promised to do under a landmark deal in 2014. Kurdish officials argued that payments from Baghdad had not been sufficient. Instead, the region exported more than 600,000 barrels a day itself, Kurdish and Iraqi officials said, a step that Baghdad considers illegal.

The dispute threatens to widen differences in a country already effectively split into three parts: the Kurdish north, areas in southern and central Iraq controlled by the Shiite-led government, and territory in the north and west seized by the Islamic State.

The collapse of the oil deal also risks ruining one of the key achievements of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, who was credited with improving relations with the Kurds after years of acrimony.

A landmark deal in 2014. If you can't trust the Kurds, who can you trust? Iran? LOL.

This is going to really screw up the OPEC numbers. When we see Iraq's exports decline will we know how much is due to the Kurds? Will the Kurds become part of OPEC and get their own export number published? Does this make it more difficult for Iraq to meet its payroll? Pay for its military? 

Reminder: The Mike Filloon Article; EOG's Super-Long, Super-Productive Wells

I've posted this before -- the link to the most recent Mike Filloon article, but if one is truly interested in "Bakken_101" this is an incredibly good article. The amount of information Mike has put together is simply staggering. Scroll through the production profiles he has provided. The production profiles will water your eyes.

As just one example:

• 22486, 2,421, EOG, Hawkeye 100-2501H, Clarks Creek, t9/12; cum 666K 6/15.

Other data points:

• 47 stages
• 14 million lbs of sand
• the lateral is 13,700 feet long; a super-long lateral; extends the distance of almost three full sections
• note the production profile below: as much as 55,000 bbls of oil in one month; if one adds up all the days the well was not in production, it adds up to almost a full year; 

Other posts at the MDW where I talked about the Hawkeye wells

• November 27, 2010 -- wells to watch, Part II
• March 20, 2013
• April 30, 2013
• May 7, 2013
• June 18, 2013
• October 3, 2013 
• April 4, 2015

 I track Clarks Creek here.

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From Mike Filloon at the linked article:

Hawkeye 100-2501H had some excellent early production numbers. From that perspective, it is one of the best wells to date in the Bakken. It has already produced 655,000 bbls of crude and 960,000 Mcf of natural gas.

It has revenues in excess of $42 million to date.

This includes roughly four non-producing or unproductive months.

Crude production over the first 360 days was 389,835 bbls. Over the first 12 months, this well produced crude revenues in excess of $23 million. Decline rates were higher, as the first full month of production declined 65% over the first year. This isn't important as early production rates were some of the highest seen in North Dakota.

It is important to note, decline rates are emphasized but higher pressured wells may deplete faster depending on choke and how quickly production is propelled up and out of the wellbore. Any well that produces very well initially will have higher decline rates, but this does not lessen the value of the well.

This specific well is depleting faster, but no one is complaining about payback times well under a year. Decline rates decrease significantly in year two at 11%. This well saw a marked increase in production when adjacent wells were turned to sales. The additional pressure associated with well communication increased production from 20,000 bbls/month to 35,000 bbls/month on average. This occurred over a 6 month period.

 My hunch is that this well is being choked back at the moment.

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Scout Ticket and Production Profile

NDIC File No: 22486    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 9/23/2012     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: NENE 25-152-95       Latitude: 47.962526     Longitude: -102.774270
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: HAWKEYE 100-2501H
Total Depth: 25101     Field: CLARKS CREEK
Spud Date(s):  4/19/2012
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10812-25101     Comp: 9/26/2012     Status: AL     Date: 7/10/2014     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 666,340     Cum MCF Gas: 997053     Cum Water: 259235
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 9/26/2012     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 2,421     IP MCF: 5232     IP Water: 1410

Monthly Production Data

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2015	26	4513	4553	3690	14977	11931	384
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	6287	6306	5136	21724	17829	653
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	7235	7225	5685	24752	21414	227
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	8459	8504	6501	25171	20828	1127
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	9344	9510	6414	20654	16390	1349
BAKKEN	1-2015	13	4427	4397	2659	9918	8115	605
BAKKEN	12-2014	30	15487	16187	11616	49147	42605	3509
BAKKEN	11-2014	11	7769	7012	4962	15996	12767	2269
BAKKEN	10-2014	1	2	2	0	4	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	22	12617	13182	8444	32742	23543	7469
BAKKEN	8-2014	31	31155	32052	19754	98086	22466	75469
BAKKEN	7-2014	8	7229	5927	9843	12565	112	12420
BAKKEN	6-2014	29	27554	27469	11865	49551	21146	28272
BAKKEN	5-2014	31	35267	35307	15480	61543	23203	38185
BAKKEN	4-2014	30	39782	40933	18472	32696	32227	319
BAKKEN	3-2014	23	29699	28444	19310	23822	22827	883
BAKKEN	2-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2013	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2013	12	6418	6478	1182	9214	0	9161
BAKKEN	10-2013	31	21325	22275	4583	31678	0	31524
BAKKEN	9-2013	24	15486	14831	3590	22352	0	22242
BAKKEN	8-2013	31	19647	19626	4492	28746	0	28591
BAKKEN	7-2013	31	15872	15998	4079	23600	0	23445
BAKKEN	6-2013	30	17544	17699	4171	25794	0	25644
BAKKEN	5-2013	31	22210	21897	5430	33351	0	33198
BAKKEN	4-2013	30	29075	29142	6968	32696	32227	319
BAKKEN	3-2013	31	36631	37198	8201	57544	0	57404
BAKKEN	2-2013	28	22100	21977	5978	32810	0	32671
BAKKEN	1-2013	30	33396	32927	9032	55877	0	55739
BAKKEN	12-2012	31	55367	55608	14629	92144	0	91989
BAKKEN	11-2012	27	47557	48594	10382	57300	0	57178
BAKKEN	10-2012	31	54927	54053	15906	155	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2012	9	21959	20698	10781	444	0	402

Graphic of the super-long laterals on the day the above note was posted:

Random Look At Several EOG Wells -- August 9, 2015; "TA" Will Be Inspected At Least Annually -- How Long Does EOG Expect Slump In Oil Prices To Last

For archival purposes. Bakken 101. Price slump.

A look at a few wells in the same local area:

• 17011, IA/1,663, EOG, Parshall 4-20H, t8/08; cum 415K 6/15; inactive since 5/14;
• 27444, TATD, EOG, Parshall 78-20H, perfed,
• 27445, TATD, EOG, Parshall 158-20H, perfed,

• 28728, SI/NC, EOG, Parshall 28-2928H,
• 28727, SI/NC, EOG, Parshall 85-2928H,
• 28726, SI/NC, EOG, Parshall 29-2928H,
• 28725, PNC, EOG, Parshall 142-2928H,

• 17294, 1,718, EOG, Parshall 11-28H, t12/08; cum 354K 6/15;
• 28638, 587, EOG, Parshall 91-28H, t1/15; 25 stages, 5.8 million lbs; big well, choked back now;
• 28639, 848, EOG, Parshall 92-28H, t2/15; 34 stages, 6.8 million lbs;  cum 55K 6/15; choked back now;
• 28714, 541, EOG, Parshall 93-2827H, t2/15; 41 stages, 8 million lbs; cum 51K 6/15; choked back now;

*************************

Updates on selected wells noted above.

17011: went inactive 5/14; still inactive;

From sundry form received August, 2014 -- EOG is currently executing a downspacing and infill drilling program. During this process the new infill wells are being hydraulically fractured offset to existing/producing wells. The existing wells in close proximity to the new infill wells are shut in during the drilling and completion process.

Pressure pulses have been noted in the existing shut in wells during this process. Due to the pressure pulses, sand from the completions in the original wells can become dislodged and enter the wellbore. When wand enters the existing wellbore it can damage pumping equipment and/or plug the wellbore. When this occurs wellbore intervention is required to replace the damaged pumping equipment and may also require the wellbore to be cleaned out, both operations are costly and slow the process for returning the offset wells to production. 

Proposal: as a mitigation measure, EOG is requesting approval to fill the existing wellbore with produced water from nearby producing wells. The fluid would increase the hydrostatic pressure in the existing well and assist in counter acting the pressure pulses and sand influxes impacting the well from the drilling and completion process of the infill wells.

The fluid will be pumped at a very low surface pressure with a non-positive displacement pump. Pumping pressure are planned below 500 psi. At or before reaching 500 psi, pumping would cease keeping the pressure below fracture pressure.

27444, TATD: from a sundry form received May, 2015 -- future use of the well will be completed once oil prices improve; the well will be inspected at least annually ... and will be reported on the TA extension if one is requested.

27445, TATD: from a sundry form received May, 2015 -- future use of the well will be completed once oil prices improve; the well will be inspected at least annually ... and will be reported on the TA extension if one is requested.

28728, SI/NC, EOG, Parshall 28-2928H, spud date, 2/23/14; cease drilling, 10/2/14;
28727, SI/NC, EOG, Parshall 85-2928H, spud date, 9/13/14; cease drilling, 9/21/14;
28726, SI/NC, EOG, Parshall 29-2928H, spud date, 9/1;14; cease drilling, 9/10/14;

17294, 1,718, was off-line from 8/14 to 3/15; sundry form received August, 2014, identical to sundry form for #17011 above;

28638, 587,  production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2015	24	9380	9299	5031	4667	0	4305
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	14885	14836	8638	7627	4124	3018
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	20603	20722	16202	11804	11320	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	22382	22408	29904	11521	9036	1989
BAKKEN	2-2015	19	10740	10285	22822	4743	3464	995

28639, 848, production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2015	26	6657	6556	9195	3540	0	3130
BAKKEN	5-2015	28	8783	8737	12986	5224	2780	2035
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	11045	11193	17669	6578	6094	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	16376	16566	32568	8853	6848	1508
BAKKEN	2-2015	22	11908	11404	35754	4485	4142	0

28714, 541, production profile:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	6-2015	27	4594	4588	11974	2320	0	1918
BAKKEN	5-2015	31	8735	8709	17855	4527	2326	1702
BAKKEN	4-2015	30	12243	12381	24871	7065	6581	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	31	16829	16863	36588	8685	6719	1479
BAKKEN	2-2015	22	8414	8058	28698	3012	2681	0

At time of original post:

Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over The Weekend, Monday -- North Dakota, August 9, 2015

Monday, August, 10, 2015

• 27124, 1,053, EOG, Parshall 43-2117H, Parshall, ICO, 28 stages, 5.7 million lbs, t2/15; cum 62K 6/15; choked back
• 28769, 941, Oasis, Langved 5393 12-3 7B, Sanish, t5/15; cum 43K 6/15;
• 29289, 480, CLR, Raleigh 7-20H, Dollar Joe, 4 sections, t3/15; cum 30K 6/15;
• 29433, SI/NC, BR, Kings Canyon 4-1-27MTFH, Camel Butte, no production data,
• 29517, SI/NC, BR, LaCanyon 8-8-34MBH ULW, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 29626, 327, Oasis, Osen 6192 43-21T, Foothills, t3/15; cum 36K 6/15;
• 30074, 981, Slawson, Howo 2-4-33MLH, Big Bend, 31 stages, 4.5 million lbs, t4/15; cum 9K 6/15;
• 30420, SI/NC, XTO, Evelyn 31X-3DXA, Lindah, no production data,

Sunday, August 9, 2015

• 27646, 2,511, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-26A-35-14H, Eagle Nest, t2/15; cum 93K 6/15;
• 28638, 587, EOG, Parshall 91-28H, Parshall, one section, 25 stages, 5.8 million lbs, t2/15; cum 78K 6/15;
• 29728, 892, Hess, EN-Weyracuh B-154-93-3031H-9, Robinson Lake, t7/15; cum 5K 6/15;
• 29904, 1,066, XTO, Elk Horn Federal 44X-36BXC, Morgan Draw, 4 sections, t5/15; cum 19K 6/15;
• 30256, SI/NC, XTO, Tobacco Garden 11X-17E, Tobacco Garden, no production data,
• 30330, DRL, SM Energy, Beth 4B-14HS, West Ambrose, no production data,

Saturday, August 8, 2015

• 25362, 1,933, Whiting, Smokey 4-15-22-13H3, Pembroke, t6/15; cum 20K 6/15;
• 27275, drl, Petro-Hunt, Klatt 145-97-18A-19-2H, Little Knife, no production data,
• 27703, DRY, Ballard Petroleum, Middaugh 33-23, wildcat, a Madison well, north and east of Minot;
• 29288, 437, CLR, Raleigh 6-20H1, Dollar Joe, pt3/15; cum 29K 6/15;
• 30329, drl, SM Energy, Maria 4b-14HN, West Ambrose, no production data,
• 30566, SI/NC, Statoil, Folvag 5-8-XW 1TFH, Cow Creek, no production data,

When you look at this list, some things to think about:

• the length of this list is pretty impressive; compare to the early days of the Bakken boom when they were drilling as fast as they could to hold leases by production; that urgency is no longer needed, and the list is still pretty long
• October, 2014, is when things started breaking down; these wells were put on the confidential list 6 months ago (usually about the time they were spud); six months ago was February, 2015, middle of winter, and well into the slump in oil prices, and yet the list if pretty long
• note the breadth of names; not just EOG and CLR, but also BR, SM, Oasis, Slawson, Ballard
• look at the number of wells now reporting an IP; a huge change from just a month ago; take BR out of the equation (they almost always got to DRL status and Ballard, and we have eleven (11)
• out of 20 wells with production numbers (maybe more when we see the list tomorrow); they're starting complete more wells
• the production numbers are very, very good
• the breadth of the oil fields involved; not just the Parshall and the Sanish, but some we haven't seen in a long time: Cow Creek, Morgan Draw, Pembroke, Big Bend, Foothills

I happened to talk to two folks working in the oil business in Texas (both small independents; one public, one private): one is involved in a pretty big acquisition deal in the Permian, and the other is hiring geologists to focus on the Permian. This doesn't sound like a depression; maybe a severe recession, but the US oil and gas industry is pretty solid, based on the little I know.

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She Has Four Front Teeth 
Two On The Top, Two On The Bottom

After eating most of my potato salad, she then wanted my ear of corn:

Reason #5 Why I Love To Blog -- August 9, 2015

Less than a week ago I posted this subject line: August 3, 2015 -- Part IV; Saudi Imports; Muscle Cars, Jeeps, SUVs Are Back.

Today, I see, USA Today has this headline and the story:  Golden age of muscle cars is now.

The golden age of the muscle car is now.

Despite strict emissions limits, concerns about climate change and unpredictable gasoline prices that would make a '60s hot rodder pull over and weep, Detroit''s modern performance cars could run rings around the classics. And they're surprisingly affordable when compared with price tags of some exotic cars with similarly high-performing engines.

"Back in the 1960s and '70s, we were looking at 300-, 325-horsepower engines. Now you've got 500-, 600-, even 700-horsepower," said Ken Gross, an automotive historian, museum consultant and journalist. "Never in my lifetime did I think I'd see the day when I could drive a 700-horsepower street car."

Even the least powerful of today's sporty cars — say a base V-6 Chevy Camaro, Mustang or Charger — could probably out-corner most 1960s muscle cars, which were renowned for their ability to accelerate, but not to turn or stop.

"We are living in the Golden Age of the performance car," said Matt Anderson, curator of transportation at the Henry Ford Museum and Greenfield Village. "The cars from the 1960s and '70s were good cars, but basic. Not as fast or sophisticated as today's cars. With new technology, improving fuel economy and reasonable gasoline prices, there's no end in sight."

Fiat Chrysler's Dodge Hellcat engines cram 707 horsepower into the Challenger coupe and Charger sedan.

The 2016 Chevrolet Corvette ZO6 produces 650 horsepower and accelerates to 60 m.p.h. in 2.95 seconds. Watching one launch has more in common with the Millennium Falcon shifting into warp drive than the Corvettes Chevrolet sold when muscle cars and "Star Wars" were new.

Ford is about to join the party with the 526-horsepower Shelby GT 350 Mustang, which uses a radically designed V-8 engine of a type usually reserved for six-figure exotic cars from Porsche and Ferrari.

If you want to see a lot of Ferraris outside of California driving around town visit Southlake, TX.