Ten (10) New Permits -- North Dakota, July 13, 2015

Active rigs:

	7/13/2015	07/13/2014	07/13/2013	07/13/2012	07/13/2011
Active Rigs	72	190	186	215	177

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 28963, 777, Hess, LK-Erickson-147-97-1102H-3, Little Knife, t5/15; cum 16K 5/15; 
• 29655, drl/NC, Newfield, Olson 152-96-30-31-3H, Westberg, produced 12K in first 13 days while on DRL/NC status;
• 30217, drl/NC, XTO, Thompson 44X-20A, Blue Buttes, no production data,

Ten (10) new permits --

• Operators: CLR (4), Hess (3), XTO (2), EOG
• Fields: Willow Creek (Williams), Alger (Mountrail), Siverston (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail)
• Comments:

Hess canceled one Vacahl permit in Mountrail County.

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Reported As "Dry Wells" 
But Not Necessarily "Dry" In The Usual Sense Of The Word

This is interesting: EOG reports four dry wells:

• 27759, Parshall 157-2127H, 
• 29822, Fertile 75-0905H, 
• 30185, Fertile 78-0905H, 
• 99188, Liberty 22-12M,

Also, add:

• 30386, Fertile 66-0410H, 

According to the e-mail dated April 28, 2015, EOG no longer plans to drill #27759 based on test resutls on TF wells in the Parshall field.

In addition, #29822, #30185, and #29188, were all dropped from the drilling program to accommodate larger inner-wells spacing. All of the wells listed above (except #29188) had P&A procedures submitted. All four wells had surface casing set, but were not drilled below surface casing due to changing EOG priorities. #29188 is a monitoring well and was never planned to be a producer.

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Off The Net For Awhile

So, how many of those ultra-expensive watches did Apple sell in the first three quarters of this year? 1,875.

Macrumors is reporting:

Apple has also sold 1,875 Apple Watch Edition models to date, at an average price of $13,700, according to Slice Intelligence. The 18-karat gold Apple Watch models, seen on the wrists of celebrities such as Beyonce, Drake, Kanye West, Katy Perry and Pharrell Williams, cost between $10,000 and $17,000 in the U.S. 

$25 million. 

Why I Love To Blog -- Reason #325,684 -- July 13, 2015

On July 7, 2015, I posted:

In case folks forget, Greece is still part of the EU. Free, unfettered travel is allowed between and among all EU countries. We won't see streams of Greeks storming the barriers trying to flee to Germany, they will simply drive up the road. It is all agreed that regardless of how this plays out, Greece will not exit the EU in less than two years; it will take that long for the process to play out. A lot can happen in two years.

It won't be just the Greeks streaming to Germany. The AP is reporting:

The number of people applying for asylum in Germany more than doubled to almost 180,000 in the first half of the year, officials said Monday, acknowledging that police are struggling to keep tabs on everyone who enters the country.

Official figures showed that 179,037 asylum applications were filed in the first six months of 2015, the vast majority of them first-time requests. Last year, 77,109 applications were filed during the January-June period.

Many Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans who arrive on Europe's shores by boat try to continue their journey to Germany or Scandinavia. In the past, Germany has criticized countries such as Italy for failing to properly register refugees as EU rules require.

But German weekly Der Spiegel reported at the weekend that border police in parts of Bavaria had given up trying to take the fingerprints of all refugees. Quoting a senior police union official, it reported that police in Passau - on the border with Austria - are letting between 250 and 300 people enter the country each day without proper registration. 

Border police chief Dieter Romann told reporters in Berlin that his officers aren't always able to fingerprint all new arrivals within the 48-hour maximum time limit allowed by law. The migrants are told to report to the next reception center, where they can be processed, but there is no way of verifying that they do.

Monday, July 13, 2015

EIA "energy cookie":

The front-month futures price for crude oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) declined 7.7% on Monday, July 6, the largest single-day decline in percentage terms since February 4...With the assumption that daily oil prices are independent (i.e., one day's movements do not influence another day's movements) and are normally distributed, a decline of Monday's magnitude would, in theory, have a 0.05% chance of occurring, or about one in 2,000. Historically, since January 2, 2006, 15 trading days (out of a total of 2,394) recorded a larger price decline. --- EIA

Let's see this: this is July 13, 2015; that was July 6, 2015. Better late than never, I guess.

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Active rigs:

	7/13/2015	07/13/2014	07/13/2013	07/13/2012	07/13/2011
Active Rigs	72	190	186	215	177

That ends that. Some time ago someone suggested that "72" was the "new" low. If it was, I missed it. Regardless, we now have it. This is the new post-boom low in active rigs in North Dakota as WTI oil flirts with $50.

I track active rigs here. 

RBN Energy: Improved Alaska North Slope Crude Prospects in a Lower Price Environment. (archived)

In 2015 Alaskan crude has enjoyed something of a change in fortunes compared to the past few years – when shale production seemed to threaten its future. Production was up by over 50 Mb/d in the first 4 months of 2015 (according to the Energy Information Administration – EIA). The market share of Alaskan crude in West Coast refineries also crept up by 1% this year compared to 2014 at a time when crude throughput at those refineries increased. Today we discuss the changes and whether they are likely to continue.

We’ve posted a number of blogs on the challenging prospects for Alaskan crude oil in the face of the shale revolution. Back in January 2013 we described how the State’s crude output has declined steadily from a peak of 2 MMb/d in 1987 to 512 Mb/d on average in 2012.

By last year (2014) production was down to 497 Mb/d. The vast majority of that crude is a type known as Alaskan North Slope (ANS) from the Prudhoe Bay field on the northern coast of Alaska beside the Beaufort Sea. ANS production is shipped 800 miles south on the Trans Alaska Pipeline system (TAPS) from Prudhoe to the ice free Port of Valdez in Southern Alaska. From Valdez the crude is mostly shipped to West Coast refineries using U.S. flagged tankers from the Jones Act fleet.

Although production has been declining there is no lack of Alaskan oil in the ground. A 2011 EIA estimate of Alaska reserves indicated up to 3.5 Billion Bbl of proven conventional oil reserves in producing fields onshore and 36 Billion Bbl of unproven reserves in federal lands offshore and onshore.

As we explained in June 2013 the State has implemented a new tax regime to encourage new development. The State also plans to invest in liquefied natural gas (LNG) export infrastructure to encourage natural gas production.

But the main challenge for Alaskan producers is that the risks and costs of developing and producing crude in sub-zero northern Alaska are higher than those for unconventional drillers in the Lower 48 – where shale oil has begun to threaten ANS market share at West Coast refineries.

ANS (a medium sour crude with an API gravity of 31.5 and 0.96 % sulfur) continues to be the West Coast’s benchmark crude but surging light sweet crude supplies from shale – particularly the Bakken in North Dakota have begun to compete with ANS over the past three years – pushing prices down. [Comment: wait until Californians decide they don't like sulfur in their oil.]

Narrowing price differentials between ANS and the U.S. Midwest benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) led to rare exports of ANS last fall as producers looked to Asian buyers for better prices. Last year’s crude price crash has added insult to injury for Alaska producers and the State Government that relies heavily on oil royalties for revenue. This time we look at how lower crude prices appear to have actually improved ANS prospects at West Coast refineries.

There is much more at the link. The article is as much about ANS as the Bakken. It's a must-read for those interested in the Bakken. Conclusion:

However the picture is not all rosy for Alaska crudes on the West Coast. In the longer term, it has to be in the interest of refiners to increase their access to domestic barrels.

Even as shale production levels off in response to lower prices and a cutback in drilling, the West Coast remains an attractive market for Bakken producers because of its geographic proximity and the fact that they face less competition there than on the Gulf Coast that is close to massive Texas production. In other words, Bakken producers are not about to give way to ANS in the competition for West Coast market share and that competition is likely to keep the lid on ANS prices.

The same goes for Canada where production continues to increase and we have to assume that routes to West Coast markets will eventually be developed. And in the meantime – even as Alaska producers enjoy a slight uptick in their fortunes – they have to reflect on the fact that much of that uptick has come at the cost of a 50% drop in prices.

Winners And Losers; Time For FTC To Investigate Apple -- Apple Has Monopoly On Smartphone Profits -- July 13, 2015

This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on what you read here. Do not make any car-buying decisions or smart-phone decisions based on what you read here.

The Los Angeles Times is reporting: Toyota's next Prius is unlikely to boost sagging hybrid market

The next Toyota Prius will arrive just as hybrids seem to be going out of fashion.
Set to debut this fall, the 2016 version of the groundbreaking green car leads a segment beset by falling gas prices and rising efficiency of conventional gasoline cars.

The fourth-generation Prius, analysts say, will have to be an extraordinary car to match its previous successes, and it's unlikely to breathe new life into the flagging hybrid segment. 

In many ways, the Prius is the hybrid segment. Last year, Toyota sold 207,635 of the three combined Prius models, accounting for 42% of the hybrid market.

It's by far the bestselling hybrid in U.S. history, having sold more than 1.8 million units since its debut as a 2001 model. It has, in recent years, often been the bestselling car of any kind in California. [I believe 2014 was the first year in many years that the Prius dropped to #2 in California; Honda Civic went to #1.]

But Prius sales this year are off 15.8% from 2014, according industry research firm Autodata Corp., a figure that mirrors falling sales for all hybrids.

It's #1 competitor: the Honda Civic.

The Prius: $25,000 to $31,000.
The Honda Civic: "a good bit less" than the Prius according to The Los Angeles Times

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Apple iPhones: 92% Of All Profits On Just 20% Of Sales

Time For The FTC To Investigate 

Monopoly On Smartphone Profits

Yahoo!Finance is reporting: Apple rules smartphone biz.

Apple is dominating the smartphone market. Canaccord Genuity estimated Apple's iPhone took 92% of all profits in the smartphone business on just 20% of sales, in the first quarter. 

Not only that, but teenagers are foregoing new clothes to pay for their iPhones. Clothing stores across the US have announced closures and downsizing.

This was before Microsoft announced it's getting out of the smartphone business (or at least taking another look at its smartphone business).

Would it help if Samsung starting giving their phones away?