Williston, Heart Of The Bakken, Ties A Previous Record -- Ties Record Set In 1933 For Record Low -- May 18, 2015

Talk about mixed emotions.

Regular readers know my thoughts about global warming.

Having said that, I wish I did not have to use my home town as an example of data suggesting quite the opposite, but it is what it is (I assume this is a dynamic link): 

Williston set a record low of 29 this morning, tying a previous record low set in 1993.

On another note, closer to my current home, here in Grapevine, Texas, a suburb of Fort Worth, TX. Remember that drought in north Texas. One word: over.

The huge Grapevine Lake is 12 feet over "normal," whatever is meant by "normal." All I know is that the picnic areas are flooded, and today I heard the soccer coaches say the soccer fields are flooded. 

A Reader Asks Why Newfield Appears To Have Taken Three Wells Off-Line -- May 18, 2015

Over at the Discussion Group a reader asks a question about Newfield's three (3) wells, #28765 - 28767: the wells were completed in initial runs in December and Janaury, but then they appear to have been taken out of production in February. Does anyone know why?

There may be specific reasons peculiar to these three wells why Newfield may have taken them out of production, but the three likely reasons:

• hold back production until prices recover
• required to choke back due to NDIC flaring rules
• required to bring in equipment to "condition" the oil before it can be shipped by rail

My money would be reason #1 -- holding back production until prices recover. It's possible there are operational reasons, so we'll see.

Production profiles:

28765, 2,190, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-3H, t1/15; cum 29K 3/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	12	0	0	23	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	3226	3598	592	6553	160	6299
BAKKEN	1-2015	30	25653	25010	7185	34991	0	34991

28766, 1,562, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-10h, t1/15; cum 25K 3/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	12	0	0	58	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	2064	2504	1125	4811	146	4571
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	23082	22438	9605	29329	0	29329

28767, 970, Newfield, Sand Creek Federal 153-96-21-28-2H, t1/15; cum 29K 3/15:

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	3-2015	30	12	0	0	14	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	28	2839	3284	582	5293	44	5156
BAKKEN	1-2015	31	23884	23520	5869	33345	0	33345
BAKKEN	12-2014	1	2480	2101	0	0	0	0

 Note that production for all three wells was identical in the month of March, 2015: 12 barrels of oil from each well. This is a great example of how operators can control very precisely how much oil they will produce from each well.

Thirteen (13) New Permits; EOG Proposes 12-Well Pad In Clarks Creek; 6/6 Wells Go To DRL/SI/NC Status -- May 18, 2015

Active rigs:

	5/18/2015	05/18/2014	05/18/2013	05/18/2012	05/18/2011
Active Rigs	82	190	189	209	175

Thirteen (13) new permits --

• Operators: EOG (12), BR
• Fields: Clarks Creek (McKenzie), Sand Creek (McKenzie)
• Comments: see EOG's proposed 12-well pad in Clarks Creek below

Four (4) producing wells completed:

• 29648, 429, SM Energy, Beverly 2-16HN, West Ambrose, t4/15; cum --
• 29646, 794, WM Energy, Virgil 2B-16HN, West Ambrose, t41/5; cum --
• 29645, 367, SM Energy, Riley 2B-16HS, West Ambrose, t4/15; cum --
• 29647, 624, SM Energy, Fay 2-16HS, West Ambrose, t5/15; cum -- 

Two (2) permits were cancelled, both in Williams County: a CLR Everly well and a Hunt Scorio well.

Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:

• 28711, SI/NC, BR, Harley 21-2TFH-R, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 29211, drl, MRO, Doll USA 12-14H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
• 29249, drl, Zavanna, Sigurd 5-8 3H, Crazy Man Creek, no production data,
• 29258, drl, Newfield, Rolla Federal 153-96-29-12H, Sand Creek, no production data,
• 29287, drl, Hunt, Austin 154-90-27-22H-1, Parshall, no production data,
• 29738, drl, SM Energy, Karlberg 14-12HN, Garnet, no production data,

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Completed -- But There Could Be Factual, Typographical Errors
Some Assumptions May Be Incorrect

This is what it appears to me now. Do not make any decisions based on what you read here. I often make factual and typographical errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

The location of EOG's proposed 12-well pad, multiple pay zones, including multiple zones in the Three Forks. Note the area in purple is 960-acre spacing:

29679, loc, EOG, West Clark 06-01M, Clarks Creek, 1-151-95, a monitoring well; from a sundry form: the subject well is a strategraphic test well to seismically monitor fractures in the laterals of the adjacent West Clark 103-, 104-, 105-, 106-, 107-, 114-, 115-, and 116-0136H wells. Well will not be produced from any formation.

EOG's "100-series" wells are three Forks wells.

The permits, all for Lot 4, 1-151-95, Clarks Creek, McKenzie County:

• 31246, West Clark 8-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 685 FWL; 2418 FSL, 842 FWL
• 31247, West Clark 103-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 785 FWL; 2420 FSL, 1492 FWL
• 31248, West Clark 104-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 835 FWL; 2423 FSL, 1805 FWL
• 31249, West Clark 105-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 885 FWL; 2358 FSL, 2096 FWL
• 31250, West Clark 106-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 935 FWL; 2255 FSL, 2350 FEL
• 31251, West Clark 107-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 985 FWL; 2255 FSL, 2039 FEL
• 31252, West Clark 116-0136H, Bakken, 960-acre, 250 FSL, 1035 FWL; 278 FSL, 1705 FEL
• 31253, West Clark 126-0136H, Three Forks B3, 960 acre, 200 FSL, 845 FWL; 2424 FSL, 620 FWL
• 31254, West Clark 127-0136H, Three Forks B2, 960 acre, 200 FSL, 895 FWL; 2420 FSL, 1016 FWL
• 31255, West Clark 134-0136H, Three Forks B3, 960 acre, 200 FSL, 945 FWL; 2426 FSL, 1166 FWL
• 31256, West Clark 128-0136H, Three Forks B1, 960 acre, 200 FSL, 995 FWL; 2421 FSL, 1316 FWL
• 31257, West Clark 129-0136H, Three Forks B2, 960 acre, 200 FSL, 1045 FWL; 2425 FSL, 1618 FWL

The target zone is as listed on the permit. My hunch is that some things may change. I would bet that in general:

• "100 - 119-series" wells target the upper Three Forks (TF1)
• "120-series" wells target the second bench
• "130-series" wells target the third bench

Obviously it does not hold in all cases based on the data above. There are some exceptions in the data above including several "100-series" wells targeting the "Bakken," not otherwise specified.

Artist's schematic (first draft):

Saudi Setting "Us" Up For $200 Oil? -- May 18, 2015

From Seeking Alpha:

• More than $100B of spending on at least 26 major projects by the world’s energy companies has been slowed, postponed or canceled in the wake of plunging oil prices, including Royal Dutch Shell, BP, ConocoPhillips, and Statoi, according to a Financial Times analysis.
• One of the biggest developments to be shelved, Shell’s Arrow liquefied natural gas plant in Australia, accounted for almost a quarter of the planned spending reduction.
• Western Canada is suffering the most from the retrenchment, with nine Canadian oil sands projects pulled back, each ranging from $1B-$10B in planned expenditure, the analysis says.
• According to Morgan Stanley, which looked at capex guidance for 2015 from more than 120 companies, investment is expected to drop by a quarter this year to $389B from $520B.

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ObamaCare to the States: Gotcha!

This story started as a small story posted at a nondescript site either yesterday or early today. I don't recall how I came across. I elected not to post it simply for that reason: it was hardly news and it was posted at a nondescript site.

However, the story is now being picked up by some major outlets, and will grow legs through the 2016 presidential race. One party will use the Iraq implosion to try to take our minds off the implosion of ObamaCare.

Politico is reporting:

Medicaid enrollment under Obamacare is skyrocketing past expectations, giving some GOP governors who oppose the program’s expansion under the health law an “I told you so” moment.

More than 12 million people have signed up for Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act since January 2014, and in some states that embraced that piece of the law, enrollment is hundreds of thousands beyond initial projections. Seven states have seen particularly big surges, with their overruns totaling nearly 1.4 million low-income adults.

The federal government is picking up 100 percent of the expansion costs through 2016, and then will gradually cut back to 90 percent. But some conservatives say the costs that will fall on the states are just too big a burden, and they see vindication in the signup numbers, proof that costs will be more than projected as they have warned all along.
Obamacare originally expanded Medicaid — which traditionally served poor children, pregnant women and the disabled — to all childless low-income adults with incomes up to 138 percent of the federal poverty level (about $16,250 for an individual) across the country. But the Supreme Court made expansion optional in 2012. And 21 states, mostly with GOP governors, have resisted.

“The expansion of Obamacare will cost our state taxpayers $5 billion,” Florida Gov. Rick Scott said in an interview with POLITICO last week, referring to the 10-year cost. “Name the health care program — I think the only one is Medicare Part D — that cost less than what they initially anticipated…Historically, if you look at the numbers, with the growth in Medicare costs, Medicaid costs, it’s always multiples.” A bitter critic of Obamacare, Scott at one point surprisingly backed expansion, but withdrew his support earlier this year. His state legislature is deeply split on Medicaid policy.

You simply wonder what Florida's Governor Rick Scott was ever thinking. 

The White House provides us the list of the 22 states that resisted this scam. According to the White House, North Dakota supported the president on this one, along with Minnesota and Iowa, and the entire west coast (Washington, Oregon, and California).

Montana and Texas voted for sovereignty, as did Warren Buffett's state of Nebraska.

New EIA Energy Link -- May 18, 2015

Today, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) launched a redesigned International Energy Portal to improve access to international energy data and trends in global energy markets. The portal can be viewed at: http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/.

With most of the future growth in energy consumption expected to occur outside of the United States and with increasingly interconnected world energy markets, a clear perspective on the international energy landscape is critically important, and EIA’s redesigned International Energy Portal makes it easier to gain insight into global energy developments,” said EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski. 

This is all very interesting. I have opined for quite some time that global energy would be the big story of the 21st century. Along with water.

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I'll Gladly Pay You Thursday For A Hamburger Today

This is almost hilarious. Just after Greece used its IMF reserves to pay back the debt it owed the International Money Fund (that's how the story read), Greece now wants to take maturing Greek bonds held by the European Central Bank to pay the European Stability Mechanism, and then Greece would pay back the ECB over the "long term."

"We are proposing, in the last period, what many specialists are proposing internationally: for the ESM to intermediate, to pay the ECB and then the Greek state can repay the ESM over the long term after an agreement with our lenders," he said.

And that's probably exactly what will happen. If you buy me a hamburger today, I'll gladly you pay you Thursday.

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Hemingway While Yahoo!Mail Is Down

Link here to a most interesting essay (2011) on A Moveable Feast: The Restored Edition, edited by Sean Hemingway, c. 2009. 

It begins:

Fifty years ago, Ernest Hemingway died by his own hand. The quintessentially American writer—and poster bear for burly masculinity—is undergoing one of his periodic revivals, spurred not only by the anniversary of his suicide but by Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris, set in the 1920s Left Bank of Hemingway’s heavily fictionalized memoir A Moveable Feast, and The Paris Wife, Paula McLain’s novel about Hadley, the writer’s wife during the period chronicled in Feast.

And that dot will lead you to an interesting essay on Marilyn Monroe.