Tuesday -- April 28, 2015

One well coming off confidential list today

• 27958, 509, OXY USA, State Dvorak A 2-16-21H-142-96, Manning, 40 stages; 4.3 million lbs sand, the lateral drilled in 15 days; spud to TD, 21 days; middle Bakken; gas max at 3,316 units; connection gases as high as 3,992 units; highest trip gas was 5,187 units; t101/4; cum 40K 2/15;

Nine (9) new permits Monday --

• Operators: XTO (6), Statoil (2), BR
• Fields: Siverston (McKenzie), Banks (McKenzie), Fayette (Dunn)
• Comments:

Renewals:

• Whiting renewed permits for three Skunk Creek wells in Dunn County
• Petro-Hunt renewed a permit for a Dolezal well in Dunn County

Active rigs:

	4/28/2015	04/28/2014	04/28/2013	04/28/2012	04/28/2011
Active Rigs	84	185	187	209	174

RBN Energy: monthly review of CBR data (EIA);

We first examine rail shipments out of the Rockies – known to the EIA as Petroleum Administration District for Defense (PADD) IV – consisting of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Utah and Idaho.

In the three years from January 2012 to January 2015 total CBR shipments out of PADD IV grew 18 fold from 10 Mb/d to just under 200 Mb/d – picking up significantly during 4Q 2013. Just as we have seen with the growth of CBR in North Dakota and Canada earlier in this series, the take off in the Rockies correlates closely with growing crude production in the region – in particular production from the Niobrara shale.

Monthly Niobrara crude production estimates grew nearly 3 fold over the period from 137 Mb/d in January 2012 to 395 Mb/d in January 2015. As happened in North Dakota, the rapid growth in Rockies crude production overwhelmed existing pipeline capacity – encouraging the build out of rail loading facilities.

We have previously detailed the build out of takeaway infrastructure in the Rockies as a result of increased Niobrara crude production from Wyoming’s Powder River and Colorado’s Denver Julesburg (DJ) basins. Although there are several large pipelines due online in 2015 and 2016 that will alleviate takeaway congestion, rail took up the slack and helped producers get crude to market in 2014.

The big increase in overall CBR movements that you see in the chart during 2014 mirrored the build out of rail load facilities in Wyoming (that added 5 load terminals with over 400 Mb/d capacity since the end of 2013) and in Colorado (three large rail load terminals with 130 Mb/d capacity). 

Much, much more at the link; the post will be archived at the source.

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Canadian Politics: The #1 Topic Readers Are Interested In

From Reuters via Rigzone:

The Canadian province of Alberta, the largest source of U.S. crude imports, may be poised to change its government for the first time in 44 years as the ruling Progressive Conservatives (PCs) struggle with the shock of tumbling oil prices.

With just a week remaining in the election campaign, polls show the PCs trailing their opponents, hurt by an unpopular tax increase and campaign missteps.

The PCs have won 12 straight elections, the longest uninterrupted run of any provincial or federal party in Canadian history.

But Premier Jim Prentice, who left investment banking to become party head in September, faces a challenge from the right and left in the May 5 election.

Polls show the center-right PCs trailing the right-wing Wildrose Party in what had been the party's rural strongholds, while the left-wing New Democrats may be poised to sweep as many as 20 seats in the capital of Edmonton.

Chaos.

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Random look at small oil pad a few miles north of Alexander:

Future Home For SM Energy In The Bakken -- April 27, 2015

Somewhere six to nine miles north of Williston (distance depends on where northern extent of the city of Williston lies), just to the east of "2 & 85."

Future Home of SM Energy
The orange "construction" sign has to do with highway construction, not construction of the SM Energy building. But the hometown for the highway construction company is interesting to note.

Never Give Up -- April 27, 2015

I can't wait to see how this one plays out.

Any reasonable person would say that TransCanada lost; the Keystone XL North is dead.

But you have to give TransCanada credit. They figure if President Obama won't let them ship Canadian oil into the US, maybe President "pro-job-growth" Obama will let the Canadians ship North Dakota oil into Canada. I believe the ban against US crude oil exports has a loophole that allows US crude oil to be shipped to Canada.

Reuters via Rigzone is reporting:

TransCanada Corp , whose controversial Keystone XL pipeline project has waited more than six years for U.S. approvals, is asking the Obama administration to approve another pipeline, one that would take American crude oil into Canada.

The company, Canada's No. 2 pipeline operator, said it applied on Wednesday for a presidential permit for its planned Upland pipeline, which will carry as much as 220,000 barrels of oil per day 240 miles from Williston, North Dakota, to meet the proposed Energy East pipeline in southern Saskatchewan near the border with Manitoba.

The $493 million Upland line, announced in February, will take crude from North Dakota's prolific Bakken field, where a shortage of pipeline space has forced producers to ship their crude by rail. 

Of course, this, too, will never be signed by President Obama -- it will never even reach his desk before he departs Washington, DC, with Loretta Lynch in tow. Twenty-one months.  If folks really were serious about the risks associated with CBR this would be a no-brainer, but the CBR risk is political theater.

1Q15 GDP Forecast Updated Last Friday -- April 27, 2015

For those who care (all three of us), this is really, really cool. This is GDPNow, updated as of April 24, 2015. One can't get much more current than that when it comes to a) government data; and, b) GDP forecasts.

From GDPNow:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.1 percent on April 24, unchanged from April 16.

The real GDP growth nowcast ticked up to 0.2 percent on April 22 when that morning's existing home sales release from the National Association of Realtors boosted the model's nowcast of residential investment growth.

The GDP growth nowcast fell back to 0.1 percent this morning as the durable goods manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau reduced the nowcasts of both equipment and inventory investment.

GDPNow absolutely needs to develop an app for the new Apple Watch so one can check on GDP forecast at the top of every hour, 24/7. LOL.

How Serious Is It For The Williston Post Office When It Comes To Finding Addresses? -- April 27, 2015

Going north on "2 & 85" out of Williston, one can turn right on 70th Street East, or one can travel a few more miles north and turn right on 56th Street Northwest (for newbies, streets generally number higher the farther one goes north of Williston, and in most places outside of the Bakken, "east" is to the right of "northwest" on maps with "north" pointing up):

The unlabeled oval is also 56th Street Northwest. And yes, the map is pointed north.