Friday, April 10, 2015

Week 14: April 5, 2015 -- April 11, 2015

Top story of the week is clearly taxable sales and purchases for 4Q14 -- continue to set records in North Dakota. The slump in oil prices continues; no relief in sight, though there appear to be some cracks in OPEC's strategy to keep producing at current levels.
Williston keeps bragging rights

Bakken economy
County approves $500 million shopping hub for Williston
US Postal Service can't keep up in Williston  -- eighth year into the boom

Operations
New low: 91 active rigs 
Three huge Whiting Flatland Federal wells; record fracks
Whiting looks to increase amount of Bakken oil to northeast US
Valuation of the better Bakken -- a random update

CBR
Update on conditioning oil before it's shipped by rail

Fracking
Whiting, Re-Fracks -- Filloon

Flaring
Update on Zavanna natural gas processing plant northeast of Williston (Springbrook)

Bakken101
Backlog of wells in the Bakken -- RBN Energy
Tax benefits for operators in the Bakken -- RBN Energy
North Dakota has not less than 22 oil fields on the top 100 oil fields in the US

Pipelines
Bookkeping: PCS approves two small pipelines in western North Dakota

For investors
COP on the Bakken
American Eagle Energy 4Q14 financial results and liquidity statement

Williston's Taxable Sales And Purchases: 4Q14 -- $1 Billion

That was posted earlier; in fact it was posted twice before, but it's really cool to see it in bold:

Williston's Taxable Sales And Purchases: 4Q14 -- $1 Billion 

I may post it again. Just for the fun of it.

$1 billion.

Nine (9) New Permits -- April 10, 2015

Active rigs:


4/10/201504/10/201404/10/201304/10/201204/10/2011
Active Rigs93190190209173

Nine (9) new permits --
  • Operators: XTO (4), Thunderbird (3), EOG, OXY USA
  • Fields: Grinnell (Williams), Ranch Creek (McKenzie), Parshall (Mountrail), Manning (Dunn
  • Comments:

Netflix Streams Higher -- April 10, 2015

One of my "next big things."

Netflix streams higher.
Shares of the Internet media titan gained a little over two percent at the open with the stock up 9% this week.
The latest advance was likely triggered by analysts at Citi, who upgraded Netflix to "buy" from "neutral," saying it doesn't share competition concerns that are currently reflected in the stock's price. Also, they noted Netflix has become disruptive in the industry – altering viewing habits. Citi’s price target for Netflix is now $525 -- about 16.5% above current levels.
I don't update "next big things" very often. But it's one of my favorite topics. It started with Netflix, so it's always fun to see Netflix in the news.

I first posted the Netflix as the next big thing on March 21, 2013. Shares were selling for $181. Today, shares are selling for $475, and Citi has raised its target to $525.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here. 

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Apple Watch

By the way, all models of the Apple Watch sold out the first day. The earliest any of the models are shipping now is four weeks; some models won't ship for two months.

My only complaint about the Apple Watch: they are too luxurious for the Apple Store.

By the way, it was interesting to see 20-somethings in blue jeans showcasing $17,000 watches. In the old days, showcasing $17,000 watches only occurred in high-end jewelry stores on Rodeo Drive or Rue de Richelieu or Fifth Avenue or Newbury Street. And the sales people were middle-aged men and women (mostly men, it seemed) in very, very expensive bespoke suits.

At previous new product launches, Apple might have had uniformed security. I didn't always see it. Yesterday at the Southlake, TX, store there were two uniformed city policemen. I didn't think about it at the time, but now, twelve hours later, thinking about 20-somethings showing $17,000 watches in a packed store, yes, two uniformed policemen might have been a smart idea.

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White Ear Buds

Is it just me or are others also seeing more white ear buds. It appears there is another "wave" of new white ear buds making its way through society. 

Muddling Through -- To Avoid Being Eaten By The Grizzly Bear, One Only Has To Run Faster Than One's Fellow Traveler -- April 10, 2015

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment or financial decision based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

The Dow is finally back over 18,000. I still maintain, that starting back in late 2014, this is a most remarkable time for young investors (I define "young investors" as those with a 20-year investment horizon; my dad at 73 was a "young investor"; he continues to invest today, at age 93). I don't understand the market and with all the headwinds, for the market to be back up over 18,000 before "sell in May, go away" (which by the way, apparently is now, "sell in June, before the swoon") is very interesting.

The world keeps muddling through "predicted disasters."

April 9, yesterday, was the day Greece was going to run out of cash. April 9th came and went. No headlines today regarding Greece, at least none that I could find.

The Ukraine? Apparently there is a cease-fire; no doubt giving the parties time to re-load, re-arm, and re-organize.

Putin's big problem: the ruble is getting stronger. Too strong; it's impacting his balance of trade payments.

The ObamaIran deal? The Ayatollah says it's DOA but we know otherwise.

Yemen will implode, but is that news?

So, we got through another week. Psychologically we may be through the worse -- at least for the next 90 days.

By the way, if you have 36 hours of free time, and looking for something to speed-read, I can't think of a better book to recommend, if interested in this sort of stuff: David Letterman's Stockman's 2013 The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America. It tells us how we got where we were. It starts with Goldman Sachs. GE enters the picture early on. GM even earlier, but not by much. Wal-Mart is mentioned early on. The Obama Green Machine gets its own chapter (remember Solyndra?). Tesla gets its own sub-chapter: explains a lot. Confirms my thoughts about Elon Musk.

I was hoping for some good news at the end of the book, or at least a chapter on how David Stockman sees the demise of the US economy play out -- but it ends with this two-sentence paragraph:
The interim winners from this ordeal will be the gangs of crony capitalism and the opulent 1 percent who thrive off the central bank's money printing. But in the end sundown will descend upon the entire nation -- even on the 1 percent.
He does have a concluding chapter, "Another Road That Could Be Taken" in which he lists thirteen (13) "crucial steps" to correct course, but he admits that these steps "would never be adopted in today's regime of money politics, fast money speculation, and Keynesian economics, but they can be listed. They are compelling."

The "crucial steps" include:
  • abolish deposit insurance
  • no incumbent of federal office could stand for re-election 
  • require each two-year congress to balance the budget
  • abolish social insurance, bailouts, and economic subsidies
  • eliminate ten major federal agencies and departments 
  • erect a sturdy cash-based means-tested safety net and abolish the minimum wage
  • impose a 30-percent wealth tax
  • repeal the 16th amendment; replace it with a uniform tax on domestic consumption at the point of sale
By the way, I think he's wrong on this:
The interim winners from this ordeal will be the gangs of crony capitalism and the opulent 1 percent who thrive off the central bank's money printing. But in the end sundown will descend upon the entire nation -- even on the 1 percent.
Based on what I see in the DFW metroplex, it appears the excesses of the 1 percent are trickling down to at least the top 15%. "Trickle-down economics" does not appear in the index. Incredibly, "supply-side economics" is also not mentioned in the index.

There seems to be a chapter missing from the book. Stockman runs through US economic history from FDR to Nixon pretty good, and some on Jimmy Carter, but then fast forwards to Barack Obama. The index has half a dozen pages but no "section" on Ronald Reagan/David Stockman whereas one can find full chapter-equivalents on any of the other presidents/economic advisers.

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Does Stockman's Book Square With What Others Are Thinking

According to the US Department of Agriculture, the top 20 economics in 2030 will be (as printed by Bloomberg):

Takeaways:
  • European growth comes to a standstill for all practical purposes
  • though small, India's economy surges
  • US and China's economies surge
  • for all that talk about China's economy, US remains #1
  • other than the US, China, and India, there is essentially no growth