Halcon With Another Huge Well In Eagle Nest -- Almost 110K In Less than Five Months

Disney announces:

A one-day ticket for either Disneyland or California Adventure in Anaheim, California, is now $99 for anyone 10 or older, the company said. That's up from $96.

Wells coming off the confidential list over the weekend, Monday:

Monday, February 23, 2015
28393, drl, XTO, Lundin Federal 31X-9G, North Fork, no production data,
29052, 836, CLR, Robert 1-13H, Stony Creek, t11/14; cum 35K 12/14;

Sunday, February 22, 2015
28015, drl, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-23C-14-2HS, Charlson, no production data,
28398, 2,529, Whiting, Gunder T. 21-30H, Lonesome, t8/14; cum 62K 12/14;
28399, 2,836, Whiting, Gunder T. 21-30-2H, Lonesome, t8/14; cum 53K 12/14;
28411, 1,070, Hess, SC-Barney-1LE-154-98-1819H-1, Truax, t1/15; cum 10K 12/14;
28883, 182, Murex, Machelle Annette 8-5H, Musta, t10/14; cum 25K 12/14;

Saturday, February 21, 2015
19296, drl, SHD Oil & Gas, Golden 22-31H, Deep Water Creek Bay, no production data,
27279, 2,946, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-19C-18-5H,  Eagle Nest, t8/14; cum 109K 12/14;
27903, 577, Emerald, Lloyd Christmas 1-4-9H, Heart River, t814; cum 15K 12/14;
28410, 527, Hess, SC-Barney-154-98-1819H-5, Truax, t12/14; cum 7K 12/14;
28737, 1,423, CLR, Uhlman 1-7H, Banks, t1/15; cum 2K 12/14;
28935, drl, CLR, Alfsvaag 3-31H1, Crazy Man Creek, no production data,

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27279, see below, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-94-19C-18-5H,  Eagle Nest:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
12-2014	21506	14238
11-2014	20376	15795
10-2014	22665	30475
9-2014	28564	45392
8-2014	15550	5140

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The Mother Lode

Our seven-month-old granddaughter loves Cheerios. Here she is: she hit the mother lode!

Update On CAFE Standards And Big Trucks, SUVs -- February 22, 2015

Big Pick-Up Trucks, SUVs In Texas

Remember this from yesterday's blog?

I don't know if folks have noticed -- it's hard not to notice: pick-ups are getting bigger and bigger. In Texas they are really getting big. I never understood it; with the CAFE standards I thought automobile and light truck manufacturers would have been forced out of the "big pick-up" business. It turns out that, in fact, things changed. The change must have been seen by no one except the light truck manufacturers.

BloombergBusinessweek has a huge story on why pickup trucks are getting bigger and bigger.

The fact that BBW did a story on this suggests to me that a lot of folks were caught unaware. The link to the story is here.  

The Sunday edition of The Dallas Morning News also carried the story with a slightly different angle:

Big Escalade SUVs fly off the lot at Sewell Cadillac, even though the leases cost $1,000 or more a month.

“If we can get one, it’s sold as soon as it gets here,” said Carl Sewell, chairman of Sewell Automotive Cos., which owns Cadillac dealerships in Dallas and Grapevine. “They sell faster than anything on the lot.”

Consumers began gravitating to truck-like vehicles about two years ago. SUVs, crossovers of all sizes and pickups sizzle these days and will probably lead the auto industry to double-digit sales growth this year, analysts say.

Low gas prices are fueling that fire, helping vehicles like the Jeep Grand Cherokee, Honda CR-V and Ford Explorer record sales increases of 20 percent or more in January.
“People are coming in to look at sedans and going straight to the crossovers,” said Brian Huth, general manager of Five Star Ford in Plano.

The trend is pumping up automaker and dealership revenue but flattening out fuel-economy gains.

The average fuel economy of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. barely rose last year. The fleet average in 2014 was 24.1 miles per gallon, only one-tenth of a mile per gallon better than 2013. In 2013, the average rose half a mile per gallon.

If the trend toward trucks persists, it will put additional pressure on the federal government’s lofty corporate average fuel economy, or CAFE, standards.

Much, much more at the link.

I see a lot of Sewell Cadillacs in my neighborhood. The last car I bought was a 2012 Honda Civic from Ryan Motors, Williston, North Dakota. I think I wrote about that some time ago. It was back in 2011 and, because of flooding, the only way out of Williston  was to drive (Amtrak was out of commission due to flooded tracks). The only option for me was to buy a car, and that's what I did.

I bought the car from Ryan Motors, and had it registered in San Antonio, Texas, where I was living at the time. (A long story regarding the registration.)

A day or two after buying the Honda Civic, I drove cross-country to Boston and gave it to my older daughter (another long story) where she put 50,000 miles on it in about two years. (And they say folks don't drive cars in Boston. LOL.)

The car is now in Grapevine with us and is pretty much used for cross-country driving. On open roads, at about 60 mph, I can get 49 mpg.

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Global Warming? What Global Warming?

Global warming? The Washington Post is reporting:  120-year-old record low broken in D.C., one of many today and in the past week.

We talk about record highs a lot in Washington, but the recently unfathomable was accomplished this morning. We broke a record low.

A temperature of 5 degrees was enough to smash a 120-year-old record for the date — a moment worthy of meteorological reflection.

When the city — often the warmest location in the region — is breaking record lows, you know it’s a cold one.

Much of the area saw one of the most truly frigid nights in recent memory last night, made more amazing because of how late in the season it happened. 

"How late in the season?" What are they smoking. It's the middle of February, generally the coldest month of the year where I come from.

Don notes that the temperatures would have been even colder had NOAA not "seasonally adjusted" them.

What Will Happen When Cushing Reaches Capacity? -- February 22, 2015; Short Note On "Cold Drafting"; Mismatched Socks -- A New Fashion Trend

That was the question I left readers with last night: what will happen when Cushing reaches full capacity, which should happen sometime in April or May of this year, just months from now.

I suggested back on January 19, 2015, that when that happens, the US will notch another record:

I am unaware of any weekly period in which gasoline demand in the United States went over 9.5 million bopd over the Memorial Day Weekend, but it certainly looks like we could do that later this spring, 2015.

Gasoline stocks continue to rise ...

... but gasoline demand continues to fall, typical for this time of year, scroll down at the previous link. 

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Quick: Pop Quiz

Which Country Was The 2nd Leading Contributor to Global Oil Supply Growth in 2014?

Your choices:

• the United States
• Canada
• Mexico
• Brazil
• Venezuela
• Saudi Arabia 
• Iraq
• Iran
• China
• Luxembourg

The answer at this link. Before you look, who was fifth? The levels shown on the bar graph at the linked article represent the increase in oil production over calendar year 2013.

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Local Gossip

A writer in the Montana Bakken suggests to me that he may have been the target of some "cold drafting," and we're not talking about furnaces.

According to this blog, "cold drafting" is:

a term used for the practice of sending a lease to a landowner with a draft for the bonus, in effect making an offer to lease, but with no present intent to honor the lease; evaluating whether to pay for the lease after the draft has been deposited and the lease signed and returned to the landman; and then picking and choosing which leases the company wants to take and which they want to reject. It allows the company to “lock up” the acreage by committing the landowner to the lease for the (usually 90) days that the draft is outstanding. Landmen should, in my view, refuse to participate in such practices, and they should certainly be considered unethical.

Update: a former landman writes that there is a way to prevent oneself from being the victim of a "cold draft": ask for a 20% "upfront signing bonus" with the balance due a year later when the existing lease expired. 20% helps keep the landman "honest" and preventing him from trying to "peddle" the lease...

Update: another reader, from Ray, North Dakota, also wrote to say they were victims of a "cold draft" also. I suppose things have slowed down a lot now in the leasing business but it sounds like if one has sizable interests in oil, consulting an oil and gas lawyer would be highly advised. 
 

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A Note to the Granddaughters

About a year or so ago we noted that our 8.5-year-old granddaughter was routinely wearing mismatched mid-calf socks  or mismatched knee-high stockings. At first we were caught a bit off-guard but over time, we really enjoyed the color and playfulness. We never really talked about it, maybe mentioning it once or twice.

In yesterday's Wall Street Journal, front page, lower right: "Socks Are No Match For This Teen Clothing Trend."

Susana Yourcheck keeps a basket of mismatched socks in her laundry room, hoping that the missing match will eventually reappear. The pile is getting smaller these days, but not because the solitary socks are magically being reunited with their mates.

The credit for the smaller stash goes to her two teenage daughters, who no longer fuss to find socks that match. That’s because fashionable tweens and teens favor a jamboree of solids, colors and patterns on their feet.

“All my friends do it. Everyone in school wears them this way,” says 15-year-old Amelia Yourcheck.

For laundry-folding parents, the best match is sometimes a mismatch.

When asked about this story, our granddaughter said it was simply to save time when folding laundry. The granddaughters are required to sort and fold laundry, a chore they do not like. I think the older one spends most of her time griping about doing the sorting and folding whereas the younger one simply finds shortcuts.

If I remember, a photograph soon. 

Tweeting Now -- February 21, 2015; What Happens When Cushing Reaches Full Capacity?

Tweeting now:

• Winter Storm Warning issued for North Texas - @NBCDFW
• Editor's note: We're seeing numerous unconfirmed reports that Turkey may be moving military vehicles into Syria in an apparent attempt to guard the Tomb of Suleyman Shah, a sovereign Turkish exclave located in the Syrian state of Aleppo. - Jimmy
• Long lines at Rockhampton, Australia, fuel station as people get gasoline for generators; witnesses say wait is more than 3 hours long - @louisarebgetz 

Rockhampton (Australia) (AFP) - Australia was clearing up Saturday after two severe cyclones left a trail of destruction, wrecking hundreds of homes and cutting electricity to tens of thousands, even as authorities warned of more flooding and gusty winds to come.

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Crude Oil Pouring Into Cushing, OK

What Happens When Cushing Reaches Maximum Capacity?

NewsOK is reporting:

As the price of oil has plummeted over the past seven months, companies have stockpiled as much as 2.2 million barrels a week at Cushing, rapidly filling it to more than half capacity. As of Feb. 13, Cushing’s storage tanks held nearly 46.3 million barrels of crude, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The stored oil is worth almost $2.4 billion even at today’s depressed prices, and the companies that own the crude hope it will be worth much more.

The oil market is in contango, which means oil delivered in the future is worth significantly more than oil delivered today. The price of oil for March delivery slipped 98 cents Thursday to $51.16. Oil to be delivered in March 2016, however, settled at $60.26.

The more than $9 premium means companies make more money storing their oil at Cushing or another storage facility and waiting to deliver it into the market.

While the contango market is driving some of the storage increase, another issue is that producers continue to flood the market with more oil than consumers can handle.

At the current fill rate, Cushing could reach operational capacity by April, said Brian Busch, director of oil markets and business development at Genscape.

“I don’t think we’ll continue to fill at that rate. We saw some drop-off this week,” Busch said. “But I think Cushing will be filled sometime in May.”

 So, what happens when Cushing reaches capacity?

Enerplus Cuts Dividend; Will Defer Completing North Dakota Wells -- February 21, 2015

The Calgary Herald is reporting:

Low oil and gas prices have prompted Enerplus Corp. to cut capital spending for 2015 by a further 24 per cent, chop its dividend by 44 per cent, sell assets, shut in Pennsylvania gas wells and defer completing North Dakota oil wells.

The news Friday came on the heels of similar budget cutting at another intermediate Calgary producer, Baytex Energy Corp., which announced late Thursday it would cut its 2015 spending by $75 million to a range of $500 million to $575 million and reduce output guidance by 4,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to 84,000 to 88,000 boe/d.

As New York benchmark oil prices slipped below $51 US per barrel on Friday, less than half the price peak of last summer, Enerplus closed up five cents at $13.54 and Baytex was down 32 cents to $22.23.

On a conference call, Enerplus president and chief executive Ian Dundas said he prefers to think of his company’s moves as “prudent” rather than “conservative.”
“As we continue to experience significant commodity price weakness, we are adjusting our plans to preserve value in the near term and ensure the financial strength of the company,” he said.

See disclaimer.