Monday, January 19, 2015

Oil Glut? What Oil Glut? -- January 19, 2015

From Rigzone - Oil, Gas Output Rises In Argentina's Vaca Muerta Shale Field
Oil production in the Argentine province of Neuquen rose 6.75 percent in the second half of 2014 from the first half, due in part to increased output at the Vaca Muerta shale field.
Vaca Muerta represented 18.08 percent of the province's overall oil output of 3.4 million cubic meters in the second half, up sharply from 11.58 percent in the first six months of the year.
Covering an area the size of Belgium, Vaca Muerta is one of the world' largest shale oil and gas formations and one that Argentina is anxious to develop. Neuquen's natural gas output rose 7.35 percent in the last six months of 2014 from 8.66 million cubic meters in the first half.
Production at Vaca Muerta made up 23.77 percent of Neuquen's overall gas production in the second half versus 19.51 percent in the first. Combined shale oil and natural gas output from the Vaca Muerta formation was about 33,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) at the end of September, with a trend toward growth.
From Rigzone -  Keppel Sees Shallow-Water Projects Supporting Rig Demand amid Lower Prices
Singapore’s rigbuilder Keppel Offshore & Marine chief executive Chow Yew Yuen believes there are still pockets of demand for oilfield services in shallow-water reservoirs where hydrocarbon production remains economical at a fraction of the current oil prices.
With oil price falling drastically within a span of four to five months from $100 to under $50 a barrel at the turn of the new year, Chow acknowledged global exploration and production activity will slow as oil and gas companies look into cutting capital expenditure.
“Some projects will move to the right [or be] put on hold,” Chow told reporters, citing projects in the deepwater basins as potentially among those coming under review.
That will potentially include Petrobras’ pre-salt discoveries off Brazil as other industry sources have indicated.
From Rigzone -  Russia's Rosneft Starts Oil Production At Arkutun-Dagi Field:
Russia's Rosneft has started oil production at the Arkutun-Dagi field, which is expected to produce 90,000 barrels per day at peak production.
The Arkutun-Dagi offshore field is part of the Sakhalin-1 project led by U.S. major ExxonMobil. 
The launch of the field, one of three operating at Sakhalin-1, should add to Russia's oil production, which hit a post-Soviet record high last year, averaging 10.58 million bpd. Two other fields in the Sakhalin-1 project, Chayvo and Odoptu, began production in 2005 and 2010, respectively.
Just keeping production levels stable is a challenging task for Russia, as its key fields in Western Siberia are depleting, while Western sanctions are making it all but impossible to raise foreign financing and bring in new technologies.
Sound bites:
  • Russia producing even more oil, even as the country hits new post-Soviet production records
  • Argentina's huge shale field is a success
  • Brazilian shallow-sea/deep-sea projects may be delayed
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At Least It's Hard To Catch

Tweeting now: hospital confirms passenger who recently traveled to 'Ebola-affected country' hospitalized after landing at Newark, NJ, airport; being kept overnight 'in an abundance of caution.'... because it's hard to catch.

Rules On Roman Numerals And Why Super Bowl 49 Is XLIX And Not IL

http://www.infoplease.com/askeds/rules-governing-roman-numerals.html.

This could have cost me a sushi dinner. I'm glad I didn't place the bet.

Companies Reporting Earnings Tuesday -- January 19, 2015; Don't Cry For Me -- Argentina's Bloody Hell

Disclaimer.

BHI, expectation, $1.07:
Baker Hughes, which agreed to a merger with rival Halliburton for $34.6 billion in November, reported fourth quarter earnings of $1.19 on an adjusted basis, ahead of analysts $1.10 consensus estimates for the period. 
HAL, expectation, $1.10:
Oilfield services giant Halliburton posted stronger fourth quarter revenue and earnings Tuesday, but warned that slumping crude oil prices had weakened its outlook for 2015.
The company said revenue rose 14.8% to nearly 8.8 billion from $7.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2014. Net income climbed 13.8% to $905 million from $795 million in the year ago quarter. For the full year, revenue rose 12% to $32.9 billion and adjusted net income rose 28% to $4.02 a share.
NFLX, expectation, 45 cents, after market close.

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Hey, It's Just A Blip
Don't Worry, Be Happy

The spin never ceases to amaze me. Reuters reports that US retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December and then call it a blip. The link:
U.S. retail sales recorded their largest decline in 11 months in December as demand fell almost across the board, tempering expectations for a sharp acceleration in consumer spending in the fourth quarter.
Economists, however, cautioned against reading too much into the surprise weakness, noting that holiday spending made it difficult to smooth December data for seasonal fluctuations.
Isn't that true every December? Why was this December different?  

One thing that is different: China's GDP is slumping also -- now down to 7.2% -- not much better than the 5% the US reported last quarter (after several revisions, several adjustments, several panicky phone calls....
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Global Warming Hits Brazil
But It's Bloody Hell For Argentinian Women

Reuters is reporting:
Rolling blackouts swept across parts of Brazil on Monday as the grid operator ordered select power cuts to avoid a larger crisis, drawing attention to a fragile electric system that is buckling under the strains of record-breaking heat and dryness.
Grid operator ONS said it orchestrated 2,200 megawatts of controlled outages in eight states as the hottest day of the year in Sao Paulo, where the temperature hit 36.5 Celsius (97.7 Fahrenheit), and other southeastern cities led to surging demand from air conditioners and other power-hungry appliances.
Brazilian officials have repeatedly denied the need for energy rationing, even as the driest spell in more than 80 years drains hydropower reserves and forces the use of more costly thermal plants.
The drought has also raised the specter of water rationing in Sao Paulo, Brazil's business hub and South America's largest metropolitan area. 
This has to wreak havoc with the manufacturing industry. 

California went through a period of water rationing some years ago and managed quite well.

As we used to say in North Dakota, "it could be worse." In fact, in Argentina it is worse: the country has run out of tampons. I can't make this stuff up. Reuters is reporting:
Argentines have been complaining for a while now about the country's product shortages. And, until recently, the government has managed to brush aside such protests, which have centered around Argentina's import restrictions.
Well until, that is, the country's 20.6 million women couldn't find their favorite tampons earlier this month - during the height of summer. 
"For 20 days, we simply couldn't source any tampons from wholesalers," said Ariel, a 29-year old pharmacy owner. 
To be sure, Argentina's tampon squeeze is a far cry from shortages plaguing Venezuela and Cuba. But it has managed to launch a debate about the country's tight control of imports and foreign currency.(Imports were down 11 percent during the first 11 months of 2014, the latest period for which data is available.) 
"... a far cry from shortages plaguing Venezuela and Cuba." Really? I had not heard of the tampon shortage in any other country until now, though I vaguely recall this was an issue for the Russians many, many years ago. Just for the fun of it, do a google search -- Argentina tampon shortage -- you will be quite amazed.

Back To The Drawing Board For The Nation's Fastest Growing Micropolitan Area -- January 19, 2015

Bakken.com is reporting:
Officials are updating a comprehensive plan for Williston that is just a few years old, saying the original plan did not take into account the rapid growth that the oil patch hub has experienced.
The original plan, developed in 2008-2010, assumed there would be a population of 30,000 people in 2020. The city’s population has already surpassed that as people from around the country flocked to the western North Dakota oil patch in search of jobs.
Williston’s population has doubled since 2010, and the city’s physical size has tripled through annexation. It is the nation’s fastest-growing micropolitan area, an entity with between 10,000 and 50,000 people, according to the Census Bureau.
Back to the drawing board; the "old" plan just wasn't keeping up.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Over The Long Weekend -- January 19, 2015

Done in a hurry; typographical and factual errors may be present. This page will be updated later. 

Seven (7) new permits --
  • Operators: Hess (6), Whiting
  • Fields: Blue Buttes (McKenzie), Pleasant Hill (McKenzie)
    Comments: Clearly, the operators are circling the wagons
Interesting: two (2) OXY USA wells have been approved for "tight hole" status -- the Federal Bud wells in Dunn County.

Active rigs:


1/19/201501/19/201401/19/201301/19/201201/19/2011
Active Rigs163187187200164


Wells coming off the confidential list over the long weekend, Tuesday:

Tuesday, January 20, 2015
  • 26533, 941, Newfield, Rolfsrud State 152-96-29-32-10H, Westberg, t11/14; cum19K 11/4;
Monday, January 19, 2015
  • 26308, 729, Hess, LK-Alwin-147-97-1324H-5, Little Knife, no production data,
  • 27375, drl, Petro-Hunt, Sherven Trsut 153-95-27D-5H, Charlson, no production data,
  • 28093, drl, Hess, GN-Earecen-159-98-2734H-1, Big Stone, no production data,
  • 28507, 871, Hunt, Alexandria 161-100-21-16H-1, Alexandria, t10/14; cum 16K 11/1;4
  • 28656, A,  CLR, Topeak 6-12H1, Brooklyn, no test date, s7/14;
  • 28742, drl, XTO, Johnson 24X-31E, Siverston, no production data,
  • 28816, 907, CLR, Brooks 3-4H, Pembroke, t12/14; cum --
Sunday, January 18, 2015
  • 27654, drl, Petro-Hunt, Jonsrud 151-96-4A-10-1HS, Clear Creek, no production data,
  • 28092, drl, Hess, GN-Njos-159-98-2635H-1, Big Stone, no production data,
  • 28361, 7, Enduro Operating, MRPSU 29-44, Mouse River Park, a Madison well, t9/14; cum --
  • 28657, 766, CLR, Topeka 7-12H, Brooklyn, t11/14; cum 5K 11/14;
  • 28675, 68, Legacy, Legacy Et Al Bernstein Barbot 12-8H, Red Rock, a Spearfish well, t8/14; cum 8 11/14;
  • 28708, drl, MRO, Brink 24-20TFH, Bailey, no production data,
Saturday, January 17, 2015
  • 26534, 1,155, Newfield, Rolfsrud State 152-96-29-32-2HZ, Westberg, t11/14; cum 14K 11/14;
  • 27874, 1,064, Petro-Hunt, Wollan 152--96-27A-5H, Clear Creek, t11/14; cum 19K 11/14;
  • 28025, 442, Fidelity, Donnie 11-14H, Sanish, t9/14; cum 32K 11/14;
  • 28348, drl, BR, Copper Draw 41-27TFH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
  • 28358, drl, MRO, Reidun 21-27TFH, Bailey, no production data,
  • 28551, drl, XTO, HM Hove 34X-33C, West Capa, no production data,
  • 28743, drl, XTO, Johnson 24X-31F, Siverston, no production data,