Wednesday, December 31, 2014

Gasoline Prices Expected To Rise About Ten Cents/Gallon January 1, 2015

Enjoy record low gasoline prices for about 24 more hours. Starting January 1, 2015, the Federal Cap and Trade Act (real name: American Clean Energy and and Security Act / Waxman-Markey bill) will add about 10 cents/gallon of gasoline. The act was passed in 2009.

Obviously, the actual cost of gasoline will vary from location to location based on many factors; this is simply what some analysts are predicting and they could be really, really wrong. It's very possible gasoline in your neighborhood might even decrease. LOL. If this information is important to you, find another source. Don't rely on this blog.

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A Note to the Granddaughters

Your grandmother asks me a stupid question several times daily. I try to ignore her or the question. She's pretty insistent until she gets the answer. Drives me nuts.

Today, "Ms Negativity" asked why they drop a ball on New Year's Eve. She got a bit angry when I told her what I tell when you when you don't know the answer to something:
  • follow the money;
  • ask "why now"; and/or,
  • google it.
The first two (follow the money and ask "why now") didn't seem appropriate.

Googling, wiki:
A time ball or timeball is an obsolete time-signalling device. It consists of a large, painted wooden or metal ball that is dropped at a predetermined time, principally to enable navigators aboard ships offshore to verify the setting of their marine chronometers. Accurate timekeeping is one means by which longitude can be determined at sea.
Although the use of time balls has been replaced by electronic time signals, some time balls have remained operational as historical tourist attractions.
So, there you have it.

Having said that, snopes.com still has the Bakken wrong. Very, very wrong.

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Zen And Leonard

Love Itself, Leonard Cohen

High Initial Production Numbers -- Page 7 (Starting January 1, 2015)

This is Page 7 for "high IP" wells. The first wells will be added January 2, 2015.

Page 6
Page 5
Page 4

Daily Activity Report, December 31, 2014; 9/9 Completed Producing Wells Register "High Initial Production" Numbers

On the last day of the year, nine (9) producing wells were reported as completed:
  • 25527, 1,525, Zavanna, Sylvester 32-29 3TFH, Springbrook, t12/14; cum --
  • 26158, 3,771, Statoil, Johnston 7-6 3TFH, Banks, t11/14; cum --
  • 26829, 2,085, XTO, Rolfson 14X-34B, Siverston, t111/4; cum --
  • 26831, 2,379, XTO, Rolfson 14X-34A, Siverston, t12/14; cum 11 --
  • 27698, 1,403, BR, Haymaker 31-15TFH-B, Elidah, t12/14; cum --
  • 28156, 2,349, MRO, Conklin USA 31-17H, Van Hook, t11/14; cum --
  • 28157, 1,665, MRO, Snow Bird USA 31-17TFH, Van Hook, t12/14; cum --
  • 28356, 2,092, MRO, Boldt 14-22TFH, Bailey, t11/14; cum --
  • 28357, 2,439, MRO, Davis 24-22H, Bailey, t11/14; cum --
Active rigs:


12/31/201412/31/201312/31/201212/31/201112/31/2010
Active Rigs170187183197156

No wells came off the confidential list today; there was no June 31, 2014.

There were nine (9) new permits today, bringing the grand total of new North Dakota oil and gas permits to 3,012 permits, up almost 50% from previous years, with a relative surge of new permitting in the last couple of months --
  • Operators: CLR (7), Petro-Hunt (2)
  • Fields: Camp (McKenzie), Corral Creek (Dunn), Charlson (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
QEP added ten (10) more wells, all in the Grail, to the "tight hole" list.

Oasis renewed three (3) permits in Williams County, the "Cook 5300 12-13" wells.

Whiting canceled three (3) permits, two in Golden Valley and one in McKenzie County. Slawson canceled one permit in Mountrail County.

It looks like we might be getting some better delineation of the Three Forks: CLR changed the name of three wells from "H2" and/or "H1" to "H" suggesting a change in formation target from TF2 or TF1 to the middle Bakken. 

Slump In Oil Price, January 1, 2015 - December 31, 2015: Permitting

Disclaimer: all data is unofficial; all data is subject to error. Assume there are typographical and/or factual errors. If this information is important to you, go to the source. Everything about the Bakken is posted in good faith. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here.
 
Slump In Oil Price, October 1, 2014 - December 31, 2016
Permitting, 2015
Permitting, 2016
Pricing, Part I
Pricing, Part II
Saudi Arabia Market Share
Mid-East Geo-Politics
OPEC Realities
For permitting in 2014, click here.

Total permits. This is from my database. See disclaimer above. I assume my numbers are different from those of the NDIC, but I also assume they are very close. These are only oil and gas permits, not salt water disposal permits. If this information is important to you, go to the source:
  • 2015: 2,056
  • 2014: 3,012
  • 2013: 2,247
  • 2012: 2,187
  • 2011: 1,916
Real time (date, # of permits; projection to end of year)
  • July 31, 2015: 1,377, 2,564
  • July 24, 2015: 1,330, 2,477
  • July 21, 2015: 1,297, 2,415
  • July 17, 2015: 1,276, 2,426
  • February 10, 2015: 327, 2,911
  • January 29, 2015: 241, 3,033
  • January 28, 2015: 230, 2,998
  • January 23, 2015: 195, 3,095
  • January 16, 2015: 134, 3,057
  • January 15, 2015: 114, 2,896
  • January 14, 2015: 104, 2,738
  • January 13, 2015: 97, 2,723
  • January 12, 2015: 78, 2,373
  • January 9, 2015: 75, 3,042
  • January 8, 2015: 71, 3,239
  • January 7, 2015: 57, 2,972
  • January 2, 2015, 14: 2,555

End-Of-Year Rig Count, December 31, 2014 -- 170 Active Rigs In North Dakota; Update On CLR 2015 Spend Plans; Elsewhere, More Wind Farms

Active rigs:


12/31/201412/31/201312/31/201212/31/201112/31/2010
Active Rigs170187183197156

Note: this data is from the NDIC. See their disclaimer regarding this rig count. Bottom line: it is what it is. Deal with it. If this information is important to you, visit North Dakota, drive around, and count the rigs that appear to be active. If you see no roughnecks on the rig for 48 hours, it may mean the rig is no longer active, or it may simple mean it's too freaking cold to be out there pushing steel two miles into the earth. I have no idea how accurate it really is. For all I know there may be some active rigs drilling salt water disposal wells.  

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CLR Announces Further Cuts

Bakken.com is reporting
CLR has recently announced its plans to further cut its capital expenditures for the upcoming year but also projects the activity will increase production growth by up to 20 percent when compared to last year.
Last month the company announced it would be cutting its budget from $5.2 billion to $4.6 billion. However, those figures have been updated and expenditures will now be cut from $4.6 billion to $2.7 billion. Since the summer, oil prices have dropped by nearly 50 percent with this month seeing prices hovering around $60 per barrel. Continental Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Harold Hamm said, “This revised budget prudently aligns our capital expenditures to lower commodity prices, targeting cash flow neutrality by mid-year 2015.”
Additionally, the company plans to decrease its current operating rig count from 50 to about 34 by the end of the first quarter of 2015. Continental plans to keep 31 rigs in operation for the full year. Of these rigs, only 11 will be operating in North Dakota’s Bakken formation. Four of the remaining rigs will be operating in the Northwest Cana area of the Anadarko Woodford formation, and 16 will be operating in the South-Central Oklahoma Oil Province (SCOOP).
Announcements are unfolding very, very quickly. I do not know if this announcement is new or old, but it is what it is. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here. Check with Investor Relations if you have questions.  

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CLR Cutting Back; Wind Still Blowing

The Dickinson Press is reporting:
Basin Electric Power Cooperative announced Wednesday it has signed power purchase agreements with new wind farms in Richardton and Tioga.  
The NextEra Energy Resources plant will be called the Dickinson Wind Energy Center and produce 150 megawatts at the farm near Richardton. Tradewind Energy is developing the Lindahl Wind Project, another 150 megawatt farm near Tioga.
NextEra’s farm is slated to be complete by the end of 2015, and Tradewind’s by the end of 2016.
300 more MW of slicers and dicers. Whatever.