Random Update Of Three Wells On A 320-Acre Bakken Drilling Unit In Antelope Oil Field, Fort Berthold Reservation, North Dakota -- December 15, 2014

Updates

Sunday, October 8, 2017: update of three wells.

Original Post 

This is really, really cool. Trying to connect all the dots, I thought there was one dot missing, but they all connect.

In the original post on the Antelope Field, I wrote:

Antelope Field is an irregularly-shaped rectangular field, almost entirely within the reservation, on the east end of the northeast McKenzie County sweet spot in the Bakken. It is about two townships in size. It is of interest due to the fact that EOG plans to place 6 wells on a 320-acre spacing unit in this field.

It is interesting how things work out: in this immediate area, there are only three sections with 320-acre spacing: section 32-152-94; section 17-151-94; and section 20-15-94. When you expand the NDIC GIS map, you can find a few more such spacing units in: section 16-152-94; section 24-151-92; section 20-152-93, and you have to expand to almost the entire map to see additional such units: 320-acre drilling units in the Bakken are few and far between. It looks like most of them are inside the reservation. This puts things into perspective.

Three screen shots.

The first screen shot shows the 320-acre spacing units in the Antelope field:

The second screen shot shows four adjacent 320-acre spacing units in the area of interest:

The last screen shot shows the three wells being drilled on one of those 320-acre drilling units:

Cool, huh?

So, I suppose those are EOG wells? Nope.

The original applications were from Slawson.

But now:

• 21385, conf, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 1-20MLH, 
• 21386, conf, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 2-20MLH,
• 21387, drl, White Butte Oil Operations, LLC, Panzer 4-20MLH, original permit for a Three Forks well but name change suggesting a middle Bakken well; in January, 2014, along with the name change (from TF to middle Bakken), Slawson also requested a revision "to allow for an additional lateral, would submit a revised plan for a single lateral plan"; in July, 2014, the thee Panzer wells were transferred to White Butte Oil from Slawson; the business address for Slawson and White Butte were identical, 1675 Broadway, Suite 1600, Denver, CO.; and that connects the last dot.

Random Example Of Authorization Request For On-Site Units To Reduce Flaring; De-Ethanize Bakken Oil -- December 15, 2014

This is an example of what an operator needs to do to comply with new flaring rules. From file #26737:

Enerplus Resources requests authorization to add temporary NGL units to reduce flaring operations and comply with NDIC gas capture requirements in areas where pipeline tie-in and/or capacity is lacking. The units would remain onsite for approximately 6 to 12 months, or until the pipeline has been constructed to the locations. Each unit, contained within a 40' x 80' area, comprises a large-volume mobile refrigeration unit, large-volume de-ethanizer, natural gas-powered 100kW-250kW generator, 18,000 gallon NGL storage tank, and a natural gas compressor.

One 40' x 80' NGL unit would be set, on skids.

Photographs of the unit is available at the file. This is what the 18,000 gallon NGL tank looks like; gonna see a lot of these sprout up in the Bakken. 

KLJ's North Dakota Oil And Gas Industry Impacts Study -- Released In September, 2014

I can't remember if I ever posted this. This is the background:

The North Dakota Oil and Gas Industry Impacts Study was commissioned to forecast the level of oil and gas production in the state of North Dakota and trends that may increase, decrease or stabilize production. The study area focuses on the 19 oil and gas producing counties with a time frame of 2014-2019.

The collaborative team of KLJ, based in Bismarck, ND, North Dakota State University’s Agribusiness and Applied Economics Department (NDSU) in Fargo, ND, and the Energy and Environmental Research Center at the University of North Dakota (EERC) in Grand Forks, ND, conducted the research and provided their expertise in preparation of this study.

The study suggests the next five years are forecasted for sustainable oil and gas production in the state of North Dakota. While there are undoubtedly conditions and events that could impact these expected outcomes, the oil and gas industry will continue to invest in the Bakken/Three Forks Formation if the economics of drilling prove profitable.

The sentence in red appears to be the summary but it is a funny way to say that the data suggests North Dakota's oil and gas industry is "sustainable" for the next five years. Whatever that means. Considering the billions of dollars of infrastructure that is in place, one would hope that the North Dakota Bakken is "viable/sustainable" for the next five years. [A sixteen-old teenager in perfectly good health is a lot different than a 75-year-old male diagnosed with a slowly progressing malignancy and given a 99% five-year survival change.] Again, I hope the Bakken is sustainable for the next five years.

That last sentence, in black bold ... well, what can I say?

This will take you to the web page, and then at the bottom of the page is the link to the PDF file. It downloads quickly despite being 215 pages. It appears the first 100 pages is the report itself; the rest is supplementary material. Again, the report focuses on the impact of the oil and gas industry on North Dakota, not necessarily the topics Business Insider or SeekingAlpha is interested in.

I don't see a lot of new information regarding size of the Bakken reservoir, primary recovery rate (how much it will increase over the next five years), etc. In fact, the report provides the size of many other oil reservoirs around the world, but correct me if I'm wrong, I don't see this report suggesting how big these folks think the Bakken/Three Forks is.

Maybe there's more there than meets the eye after a first run-through, but it seems like its lacking a lot of detail. Page 55 is perhaps the most interesting page with regard to production potential:

Recoverable oil and gas in the Bakken and Three Forks Formations make it the largest continuous oil accumulation in the US and accounts for more than half of all domestic-assessed tight oil resources. The second largest continuous oil accumulation in the US is the combined resources of the Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk in Texas and Louisiana. Conservative government estimates state that 40,000 wells would be required to fully develop the Bakken and Three Forks Formations and could take 20 years or more to complete drilling activities and at least 50 years to produce all of the accessible oil, assuming 2014-2019 technology capabilities.

I also wonder if the study overlooked the recent estimates in the Permian.

It would have been interesting to see other estimates in addition to the "conservative government estimates" included in the study. There is nothing new in that paragraph; those figures have been around for the past several years.

What I did not care for were assumptions like these:

The number of wells drilled per rig will likely increase approximately five percent each year during the study period. 

It sounded like a wag. I have no idea how they came up with "five percent each year." Thirteen wells/year x 1.05 =  13.65.  After iterating five times, one comes up with 16.6 wells/rigs at the end of the 5th year. So?

The most glaring short-coming (obviously one can say this in hindsight), KLJ did all their studies based on three price-points for oil: $70/bbl; $85/bbl; and, $100/bbl. In hindsight, they needed to take this to $50/bbl which is very possible for the next two to three years. (It is very possible but very unlikely.) $50-oil won't shut down the Bakken but it changes the economic picture and the impact on North Dakota dramatically. In fact, the impact with $50 oil might be greater than if oil goes to $150 for the next five years. The contractor was lucky to complete this study by September, 2014, before the plunge in oil prices. 

The other shortcoming: I don't think the cost to complete a well within the parameters provided was all that helpful. It was pretty superfluous to the report. Having said that, I don't think they took into consideration the new completion techniques: huge amounts of proppant, for example, but I could have missed that. But even if they had included that data, it would have been superfluous for the purpose of the report.

It's a good source document for city planners and developers but I'm not sure how much it adds to our knowledge of the Bakken.

I Wonder If Anybody Noticed -- I Doubt It -- December 15, 2014

The AP is reporting:

North Dakota’s oil industry is coming in even lower than the targets set by new rules that require reducing the amount of natural gas burned off as a byproduct of oil production, the state’s top energy regulator said Friday.

Regulators endorsed a policy in July that sets goals to reduce flaring in incremental steps through 2020. The new rules allow regulators to set production limits on oil companies if the targets are not met.

The change requires flaring rates to be reduced to 26 percent by Oct. 1 and 10 percent within six years as infrastructure catches up with oil development.

State Mineral Resources Director Lynn Helms said North Dakota’s natural gas flaring rate was 22 percent for October.

But we know that Alma Clooney wore a really nice hat to her wedding. All is right with the world.

The Day Finishes With 183 Active Rigs; Twenty-One (21) Producing Wells Completed; Twenty-Three (23) Wells Approved For Confidential Status; KOG Wells Now Listed As Whiting Wells; Nineteen (19) New Permits; SM Energy Reports A Huge Well In The Bakken -- North Dakota, December 15, 2014; Another Big Well In Stockyard Creek; At Four Pages, One Of The Longest Daily Activity Reports

Wells coming off confidential list Tuesday:

• 22626, 381, Triangle, Triangle 149-101-1-12-2H, Antelope Creek, t11/14; cum 12K 10/14;
• 23684, 726, WPX, Martin Fox 20-17HA, Mandaree, t10/14; cum 17K 10/14;
• 25081, drl, Statoil, Field Trust 7-6 3TFH, Todd, no production data,
• 27953, drl, CLR, Cincinnati 2-30H1, Indian Hill, no production data,
• 27954, drl, CLR, Scottsdale 3-31H1, Indian Hill, no production data,
• 28115, 28, Zargon, Zargon Mackobee Coulee 2HZ 3-16, Mackobee Coulee, a Madison well, about 1,000-foot-directional, 320-acre spacing, Sanjel's services [non-discounted total, $63K; discounted total (55%), $29], VD about 6,500 feet; TD, 7,450 feet, t8/14; cum 4K 10/14;
• 28200, 732, SM Energy, Calvin 2-13H, Poe, t9/14; cum 30K 10/14;
• 28450, drl, Slawson, Blade Federal 1-18MLH, Big Bend, producing,
• 28474, 94, Legacy, Legacy Et Al Berge 9-36 2H, North Souris, a Spearfish well, t7/14; cum 8K 101/4;
• 28608, loc (no typo -- that's what it shows on the scout ticket the day the well came off confidential; I assume the status should be DRL, awaiting fracking), EOG, Parshall 71-19H, Parshall, s10/22/14; cease drilling 10/31/14; TVD,9,400 fet; TD, 13,500 feet; reached TD 9 days after spud; single section, middle Bakken; no production data,

*******************************

28608, see above, EOG, Parshall 71-19H, Parshall, no production data; this is a very short lateral, it's in the southwest corner of section 19-152-90 (bottom hole starts in lot  2 and ends in the same section, about 4,500 feet away).

28200, see above, SM Energy, Calvin 2-13H, Poe:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
10-2014	22634	11015
9-2014	7046	1211

************************************

Twenty-one (21)producing wells completed:

• 25117, 1,279, CLR, Bjarne 3-29H, Patent Gate, t11/14; cum --
• 26273, A, CLR, Rehak Federal 6-25H1, Alkali Creek, no test date yet;
• 26423, 1,328, Whiting, P Manning 154-99-2-2-11-15H3, Stockyard Creek, t9/14; cum 13K 10/14;
• 26498, 597, Hess, GN-Ringabeau-158-98-1102H-1, Rainbow, t11/14; cum 3K 10/14;
• 26840, 1,160, Hess, HA-Thompson-152-95-2017H-6, Hawkeye, t11/4; cum 13K 10/14;
• 26938, 998, Hess, SC-Norma-154-98-0706H-3, Truax, t11/14; cum 2K 10/14;
• 26939, 654, Hess, SC-Norma-154-98-0706H-2, Truax, t11/14; cum 8K 10/14;
• 26980, 1,376, Hess, HA-Nelson-152-95-3328H-9, Hawkeye, t11/14; cum 8K 10/14;
• 26981, 1,137, Hess, HA-Nelson-152-95-3328H-8, Hawkeye, t11/14; cum 14K 10/14;
• 27004, see below/2,358, Statoil, Brown 30-19 4TFH, Alger, t11/14; cum --
• 27462, 1,370, Hess, LK-Bice-LW-147-97-1201H-1, Big Gulch, 4 sections, t10/14; cum --
• 27472, 1,370, Hess, HA-Thompson-LW 152-95-2017H-1, Hawkeye, 4 sections, t11/14; cum 4K 10/14;
• 27497, 525, Hess, EN-L Cvancara-155-93-2627H-5, Robinson Lake, t101/4; cum 7K 10/14;
• 27722, 637, Sm Energy, Almos Farms 1B-26HN, West Ambrose, t10/14; cum 8K 10/14;
• 27801, 1,081, Hess, HA-Mogen-152-95-0805H-9, Hawkeye, t11/14; cum 12K 10/14;
• 27815, 1,257, Hess, HA-Mogen-LE-152-95-0805H-1, Hawkeye, 4 sections, t11/14; cum 5K 10/14;
• 27930, 1,787, Whiting, P Wood 154-98[15-23-15-3H, Truax, 4 sections, t11/14; cum --
• 27931, 1,802, Whiting, P Wood 154-98-15-23-15-2HA, Truax, 4 sections, t11/14; cum --
• 27932, 2,201, Whiting, P Wood 154-98-15-23-15-2H, Truax, 4 sections, t11/14; cum --
• 28066, 850, Hess, EN-State C-156-93-1615H-8, Alger, t11/14; cum 2K 10/14;
• 28884, 2,515, Whiting, P Wood 154-98-15-23-15-3HA, Truax, 4 sections, t11/14; cum --

Nineteen (19) new permits:

• Operators: BR (11), Triangle (5), Slawson (2), Resonance Exploration
• Fields: Sand Creek (McKenzie), North Fork (McKenzie), Elk (McKenzie), Big Bend (Mountrail),
• Comments: this is the second permit for Resonance Exploration; both were permits for wildcat wells, both in the same township, right next to Westhope oil field, up in the far north of North Dakota, in Spearfish oil area, near the Landa oil fields; based on the name of the well the company is likely associated with Ballantyne;

Active rigs:

	12/15/2014	12/15/2013	12/15/2012	12/15/2011	12/15/2010
Active Rigs	183	191	181	198	165

NOTE: from "Things To Follow Up On" --

November 17, 2014
Statoil's Brown wells will be their first crack at cemented liners and increased frac stages. Will be interesting to see the difference. [ 27003, 27704, 27005, 27006, 28733, older wells: 20790, 18760.