What We Will Be Talking About Thursday -- October 15, 2014

Apple presentation.

Jobs.

The fact that the second nurse to come down with Ebola called the CDC prior to flying to see if she would be "allowed" to fly. She was told it would be safe for her to fly. CDC confirms the phone calls and that they told her it was safe to fly. Sources everywhere but here is one.

**********************************

The Wall Street Journal

Top story: the second Texas nurse infected with Ebola did in fact fly round-trip from Dallas to Cleveland despite a) a history of caring for Ebola patient who died; and, b) knowing she had a fever.

In an effort to control Ebola, new focus on controlling air travel. Maybe someone needs to control the CDC.

Risk of deflation feeds global fears.

Consumer spending fell in September.

VA officials, at risk of being fired, can slow-roll the process, giving them time in service to retire.

Saudi Arabia, feeling ISIS heat, sentences cleric to death.

Extreme weather: twelve killed in Nepal (Himalayan) snowstorm; four feet of snow in a area popular with trekkers.

Italy and France intend to run bigger deficits longer than previously pledged -- EU will not be happy.

Wal-Mart sees rough patch for sales, profits.

Oil's price drop will help refiners.

Many trading and brokerage firms saw a sharp increase in calls from worried clients ...

Baker Hughes poised to ride out storm; the oil-field-services firm looks to maintain its edge, as underlying trends appear promising.

*******************************

The Los Angeles Times

Top story: Ebola nurse flew with symptoms; CDC said flying was okay. 

President Obama wants Ebola "SWAT" team ready to go anywhere.

Elizabeth Pena dies at 55; actress in "La Bamba," and "The Incredibles." 

Break-Even Point In The North Dakota Bakken -- October 15, 2014

Regular readers know I won't post what I think break-even point in the Bakken is; I've said it's readily available in the corporate presentations.

Reuters reports the break-even point in various counties in North Dakota based on comments from state officials.

Costs per well can vary widely across North Dakota depending on a variety of factors, including the type of sand used in the hydraulic fracturing process, geology, weather and waste disposal.

Operating costs across the state have risen, on average, 36 percent in the past year to roughly $15,000 per well per month, Helms said. The jump is primarily due to larger amounts of water being produced with the oil, necessitating higher disposal costs, in addition to high diesel costs to fuel on-site generators at remote wells.

Trying to assuage concerns on Wall Street that falling oil prices could imperil the state's Bakken oil boom, Helms said oil extraction in McKenzie County, the state's largest oil-producing county, wouldn't become economically unfeasible until $28 per barrel, far below current oil prices.

Yet, Helms admitted, production in at least three North Dakota counties, including Divide County where American Eagle Energy operates, is economically unfeasible now.
Roughly 60 percent of the produced oil in August left via train, with 34 percent via pipe and the rest via truck, regulators said.

Date-time stamp for this article: Wed Oct 15, 2014 4:04pm EDT.

I posted this earlier today (October 15, 2014) but for various reasons pulled it off the blog.  

Twenty (20) New Permits -- North Dakota -- Newfield And BR Each Report A Nice Well -- October 15, 2014

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:

• 25833, 457, Fidelity, Weiler 21-16H, Heart River, Three Forks, initial production erratic, t5/13; cum 34K 8/14;
• 26443, 908, Whiting, Ellison Creek Federal 21-1PH, Morgan Draw, Golden Valley County, Upper Pronghorn formation, targeting an 8-foot Pronghorn window; just below the Upper Bakken; the middle Bakken and Lower Bakken shale are not present here, gas units were low throughout; TF1, t4/14; cum 33K 8/14;
• 27148, 1,920, BR, Old Arches 14-35MBH ULW, Keene, target middle Bakken, 20 feet thick; 13 feet below the top of the Upper Bakken shale; actual tops Upper Bakken shale 10,563; middle Bakken, 10,638; paragraph 4.2 in geologist report: (Target Zone: Upper Three Forks) -- was that an error; frack report says middle Bakken; permit app also says Bakken; 30 stages; 3.5 million lbs "other"; t8/14; cum 15K 8/14;
• 27503, drl, Hess, BB-Budahn A-150-95-0403H-8, Blue Buttes, no production data,
• 27731, 1,415, Newfield, Fleck 150-100-12-1-4H, Sandrocks, total drilling days, 25; middle Bakken; gas levels 1,000 to 4,000 units; an intermittent 2 - 10' flare; 38 stages; 4.3 million lbs sand; t8/14; cum 8/14;
• 27769, drl, SM Energy, Tracy 13-35H, Camp, no production data,

Twenty (20) new permits --

• Operators: CLR (6), QEP (4), MRO (2), Triangle (3), OXY USA (3), EOG, Whiting,
  Fields: Rattlesnake Point (Dunn), Heart Butte (Dunn), Murphy Creek (Dunn), Buffalo Wallow (McKenzie), Manning (Dunn), Clarks Creek (McKenzie)
  Comments: Whiting has a permit for a wildcat in Golden Valley County, 9-140-104;

Active rigs:

	10/15/2014	10/15/2013	10/15/2012	10/15/2011	10/15/2010
Active Rigs	190	184	189	195	153

Wells coming off confidential list today were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Do You Agree This Was Reason For Collapse? -- Fitzsimmons, Seeking Alpha -- October 15, 2014

Fitzsimmons over at SeekingAlpha: Libya's production was the single biggest factor causing collapse of share price of US fracking companies.

• Libya was producing 1.65 million bpd of crude in 2010.
• During parts of 2013, exports fell by ~1.4 million bpd.
• Recently, Libyan production jumped by nearly 500,000 bpd from Q2 to Sept./Aug.
• The rapid step-function changes in Libyan production was the single biggest reason behind the collapse of oil prices and domestic frackers' stock prices.
• Meantime, ConocoPhillips looks very attractive after a $20 drop in the stock. 

This is not an investment blog. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you might have read here.

The October, 2014, Director's Cut Is Out -- North Dakota Bakken Has Now Produced One (1) Billion Barrels Of Crude Oil

I often make typographical and factual errors; if this information is important to you, go to the source, generally the NDIC.

Link here.

Only 6% of North Dakota oil is coming from legacy conventional pools.

A 1.6% increase month-over-month (the daily bopd).

Disclaimer: this update is always done in haste; typographical errors are likely. This is for my use only. Others should go to the source. 

Oil:

• August, 2014: 1,132,331 bopd (preliminary; new all-time high)
• July, 2014: revised, 1,114,421 bopd
• July, 2014: 1,110,642 bopd (initial report)
• delta: 17,910 (daily bopd)
• 17,910 / 1,114,421 = 1.6%

Producing wells: 

• August, 2014: 11,563 (new all-time high)
• July, 2014: 11,293
• June, 2014: 11,079  
• May, 2014: 10,902

Permitting:

• September, 2014: 261
• August, 2014: 273
• July, 2014: 265
• June, 2014: 247
• All-time high was 370 in 10/2012
  

Pricing:

• Today, 2014: $66.25
• Sept, 2014: $74.50
• August, 2014: $78.46
• July, 2014: $86.20

Rig count:

• Today: 190 (all time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
• Sept, 2014: 195
• August, 2014: 193
• July, 2014:  192
• June, 2014: 190

Director's comments:

• well completions increased from 197 in July to 270 in August with summer weather
• drillers DID NOT outpace the completion crews: number of wells waiting completion (end of July) : 600 (a decrease of 30)
• rig count in the Williston Basin is no longer increasing
• US natural gas storage:  11% below five-year average
• percentage of natural gas flared in North Dakota:  27% (up 1% from last month)
• NDIC now breaks down location of captured gas: statewide (72%); statewide Bakken (72.5%); non-FBIR Bakken (74.4%); FBIR Bakken (64.5%)

EPA now looking to expand control/regulation of North Dakota oil and gas industry through "back  door" (my words, not NDIC words).