A feel-good article: Americans' addiction to oil is growing.
Salon is reporting:
Considering all the talk about global warming, peak oil, carbon
divestment, and renewable energy, you’d think that oil consumption in
the United States would be on a downward path. By now, we should
certainly be witnessing real progress toward a post-petroleum economy.
As it happens, the opposite is occurring. U.S. oil consumption is on an
upward trajectory, climbing by400,000 barrels per day in 2013 alone — and, if current trends persist, it should rise again both this year and next. [The Bakken can handle this, producing a million bopd.]
In
other words, oil is back. Big time. Signs of its resurgence abound.
Despite what you may think, Americans, on average, are driving more miles every
day, not fewer, filling ever more fuel tanks with ever more gasoline,
and evidently feeling ever less bad about it. The stigma of buying new
gas-guzzling SUVs, for instance, seems to have vanished; according to CNN Money, nearly one out of three vehicles sold today is an SUV. As a result of all this, America’s demand for oil grew more than China’s in 2013, the first time that’s happened since 1999.
Oh,
Mr Salon, don't sound so forlorn, China will come back. Another favorite:
Accompanying all this is a little noticed but crucial shift in White
House rhetoric. While President Obama once spoke of the necessity of
eliminating our reliance on petroleum as a major source of energy, he [Mr Obama]
now brags about rising U.S. oil output and touts his efforts to further
boost production.
The article is pretty good. Some inconvenient truths overlooked. This is one of my favorite:
While emissions from domestic [repeat, domestic] [repeat, domestic] coal use are likely to decline in the years ahead, in part due to new rules being
formulated by the Environmental Protection Agency, the expected rise in
emissions from oil and natural gas use will wipe out these gains, and
so total U.S. emissions are expected to be higher in
2040 than they are today, according to the EIA. As a result, we can
expect little progress in international efforts to slow the advance of
climate change and a steady increase in the frequency and intensity of storms, floods, fires, droughts, and heat waves.
Well, maybe that's all accurate, if one is shortsighted only to look at domestic coal. I doubt the rest of the world would follow the US lead on energy. Even Germany is returning to coal.
The reality:
By 2018, world coal usage will increase by 584 Metric tonnes (2,200 lbs/metric ton) with new coal generation of 198 GW from power plants: Chinese 66 GW; India
71 GW; other SE asia 33 GW: Europe 12 GW; and, Africa 12 GW.
[
Putting the 198 GW in perspective: the US produced 318 GW from coal in 2011; 415 GW from natural gas. The world, in the next three years or so, is going to add half-again-as-much coal generated power as the US currently uses. To cut global CO2 emissions significantly,
the world has to stop all new electricity generation. LOL. ]
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Several recent years have seen remarkably open conditions in the Northwest Passage by the end of August.
This year, however, much of the passage is clogged with ice, and even the circuitous Amundsen route is not entirely open. (Note that Amundsen required two summers to navigate this route in 1905; Amundsen wintered over in the hamlet of Gjoa Haven—now called Uqsuqtuuq).
The recent openings of the Northwest Passage in 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011 were associated with high sea level pressure anomalies over the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Basin. This atmospheric pattern essentially displaces the polar pack away from the M’Clure Strait, resulting in minimal ice inflow from the Arctic Ocean.
In contrast, weather patterns this year have been more moderate, and as a result, more ice remains in the Northwest Passage. As of the end of August 2014, ice area in the passage was tracking above the 1981 to 2010 average. Ice area over the summer of 2013 tracked slightly below the 1981 to 2010 average, but was considerably higher than the years prior. The summer of 2011 saw the lowest ice area in the Northwest Passage since 1968.
Have you ever noticed that climatologists can speak in a quiet voice, reporting data, and not to have to yell to get your attention?
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Snow In The Bakken
I assume it happened all the time when I was growing up, but I do not recall snow accumulation in North Dakota in September, but here we go.
Dr Roy Spencer is reporting:
Looks like September snows — not even mountain snows — over the
northern tier of states spreading eastward from Montana and North Dakota
starting Tuesday night.
The latest GFS model total snow accumulation by next Saturday shows
snow for Montana, Wyoming (mountains only), the Dakotas, Minnesota,
Wisconsin, and Michigan.
After his original post, the Dr Spencer provided an update:
UPDATE: Here’s a plot [at the linked site] of the average times of first snow…as you can see, the predicted snow is about a month early.
Ah, yes, isn't global warming wonderful?
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USC 13 Stanford 10
An incredible game.
And Oregon: 46 -- Michigan State: 27.
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Filling The Void
Icebreakers Required
The US has pretty much ceded the Arctic to the rest of the world (previously posted). Russia is taking advantage of the situation (while all eyes are on the Ukraine, and the golf links).
Yahoo is reporting:
Russia on Saturday sent six ships
carrying personnel and equipment to a Soviet-era military base in the
Arctic that it is reopening to bolster its presence in the region,
Russian news agencies reported.
Moscow
is ramping up its military presence in the pristine but energy-rich
region as other countries such as Canada and Norway are also staking
claims to access its resources. [Of note: the US is not mentioned.]
President
Vladimir Putin last year ordered the military to return to a base on
the far-Northern New Siberian Islands that was abandoned in 1993.
On
Saturday, a fleet of six ships including two large landing ships set
off from the port of Severomorsk in northern Russia, a spokesman for the
Western military district, Vadim Serga, told ITAR-TASS news agency.
The ships will be accompanied by several icebreakers.
Abandoned in 1993. Hmmmmm .... filling the void. SecDef Hagel's priority is drawing down the US military after two highly successful wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Putin has other priorities.
