QEP, Whiting To Post Some Big Wells In The Bakken This Week -- August 24, 2014

RBN Energy: day of reckoning -- when US refiners cannot process all the domestic crude. A must-read, must-save, essay.

Active rigs:

	8/25/2014	08/25/2013	08/25/2012	08/25/2011	08/25/2010
Active Rigs	192	184	189	195	138

Monday, August 25, 2014

• 19474, drl, Fram Operating, Nailor Trust 1, wildcat, 32-160-86, no production data,
• 25869, 2,938, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33TH, Grail, t3/14; cum 77 6/14;
• 25870, see below, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33BH, Grail, huge well,
• 25871, 2,322, QEP, Pogo 1-28-33BH, Grail, t3/14; cum 62K 6/14;
• 26196, drl, Murex, Diane Renee 3-10H, Writing Rock, no production data,
• 26319, 2,183, QEP, Pogo 28-33-27-34LL, Grail, t3/14; cum 64K 6/14;
• 26328, conf, XTO, Boomer Federal 34X-35H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
• 26467, 1,007, Newfield, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H, Siverston, t5/14; cum 30K 6/14;
• 26798, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-24D-13-5H, Antelope, no production data,
• 26883, drl, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-6H, North Fork, no production data,
• 27273, drl, Hess, EN-Hermanson-LE-155-93-3501H-1, Robinson Lake, no production data,
• 27274, drl, Slawson, Cruiser 3-16-9H, Big Bend, no production data,
• 27423, drl, XTO, Lyla 24X-10A, Lindahl, no production data,
• 27577, drl Statoil, Barstad 23-14 3H, Alger, no production data,
• 27712, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 7TFH, Stony Creek, no production data,

Sunday, August 24, 2014

• 21774, 244, Whiting, Ash Coulee Federal 44-18TFH, Ash Coulee, t4/14; cum 7K 6/14;
• 26483, 1,154, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16H, Pleasant Hill, t3/14; cum 56K 6/14;
• 26484, 1,482, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16-2H, Pleasant Hill, t3/14; cum 60K 6/14;
• 27450, drl, CLR, Hartman 8-28H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
• 27634, 60, Enduro, MRPSU 30-42-H1, Mouse River Park, a Madison well, t4/14; cum 2K 6/14;
• 27675, drl, Slawson, Mole 3-20H, Big Bend, no production data,
• 27714, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 5TFH, Stony Creek, no production data,

Saturday, August 23, 2014

• 24002, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 4H, Stony Creek, no production data,
• 26884, drl, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-5H, North Fork, no production data,
• 27062, drl, BR, Norman 21-4TFH 3SH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
• 27185, 125, Hunt, Smokey Butte 160-100-31-30H-1, Smoky Butte, t5/14; cum 2K 6/14;
• 27199, drl, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-11D-2-2H, Stoneview, no production data,
• 27576, drl, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 7TFH, Alger, no production data,
• 27713, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 6H, Stony Creek, no production data,

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 25869, see above, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33TH, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	19817	4769
5-2014	24806	20541
4-2014	22010	12172
3-2014	10255	5628

25870, see above, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33BH, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	10372	4287
5-2014	13624	22431
4-2014	19953	9709
3-2014	13462	6796

25871, see above, QEP, Pogo 1-28-33BH, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	10304	4628
5-2014	10022	19699
4-2014	25550	11561
3-2014	16310	9279

26319, see above, QEP, Pogo 28-33-27-34LL, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	16750	4180
5-2014	15235	17935
4-2014	21396	0
3-2014	9957	0

26467, see above, Newfield, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H, Siverston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	12585	15863
5-2014	16886	23215

26483, see above, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16H, Pleasant Hill:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	8178	10545
5-2014	6225	9127
4-2014	14044	23588
3-2014	19012	12944
2-2014	7992	3698

26484, see above, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16-2H, Pleasant Hill:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	7884	6342
5-2014	8719	9496
4-2014	15380	27205
3-2014	27307	27655
2-2014	0	174

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The Bakken: Second Impressions

I doubt legislators in Bismarck are really paying much attention to the Bakken. Not paying attention to something is how things take us by surprise. I have always been and remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, but there are some realities.

Some random comments and/or observations that I have heard or seen in the first 48 hours after being back in the Bakken:

"A lot of oil service companies are moving out of the Bakken. There are too many oil service companies up here. Baker Hughes moved out." Of course, BHI did not move out completely, but I was told they no longer frack, only in "tools." I don't know. See comments below: BHI is still fracking in the Bakken, though their crews may now be based out of Dickinson, Minot. If accurate, and it sounds like it's accurate, it makes a lot of sense -- facility capacity for BHI in Dickinson, Minot where they also have huge footprint, AND it probably costs their folks less to live there. -- updated August 25, 2014.

"This past year was the worst year I ever had. There's no work." -- a welder.

The Bakken accounts for 12% of American oil production.

Daily posts at RBN Energy suggest there's a huge glut of light oil hitting the market, and the glut will only get worse. The US still needs to import oil because "light oil" is the wrong kind of oil for refineries along the gulf coast. What they need is heavy oil from Canada but the US "embargoes" Canadian heavy oil, preferring the same stuff from Venezuela.

The word on the street in Williston is that oil will hit $80/bbl. That's WTI. Bakken oil sells for a huge discount to WTI -- it fluctuates based on the amount of light oil hitting the markets. I used to say the Bakken would do fine at $60/bbl (investors wouldn't) but that was before the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Now I'm not so sure.

North Dakota is producing 1 million bopd. Texas could add another 1 million bopd in production by this time next year. If there's a glut of light oil hitting the market now, and Texas does add another 1 million bopd by next year ... [memo to self -- insert Lana Del Rey's Summertime Sadness here].

Pad drilling is changing everything. Lots of unanticipated consequences.  My hunch is truck traffic is way down. Could be wrong. But I certainly don't see as many 18-wheelers as I did last summer. Maybe all the new bypasses are changing things. Maybe they're just spread out. Maybe the truckers are where I'm not. The traffic, in general, however, is way up. POVs and commercial pick-ups and specialty trucks. Part of the congestion is due to all the road construction in Williston and the school year starting, but still, there's a lot of traffic. Where it used to take me three minutes to get to the coffee shop (driving), it now takes four minutes. Is that a 25% increase or a 33% increase in driving time?

The residential units keep going up. As much as ever. Folks worry that they are over-building. When will we know that we have enough? Driving up to the Bakken a couple days ago, I passed a "hotel" that was built about two years ago. Of course, it was fully occupied the day the doors opened. But this time it appears the hotel was now corporate headquarters and living quarters for a earth-moving company; the parking lot was full of brand new earth-movers. I don't think it was a dealership. Smile.

I haven't checked to see if there's been any change (doubt it) but a year or so ago, one of the biggest motels (pre-boom) was turned over to one oil company.

The big road construction projects are nowhere near the end. The five-lane construction project between Watford City and Williston has a long way to go. And we haven't even begun to see movement on the new bridge across the Missouri south of the 4-mile corner west of Williston. That's not going to be a trivial project.

What  oil activity we see along the major thoroughfares in western North Dakota pales in comparison to what is going on in the back country.

A lot more families, children, college, co-eds out and about. Many, many more young couples. The demographics are changing.

Few discouraging words are heard in the Bakken.

To The Best Of My Knowledge, There's No Fracking In Northern California -- August 24, 2014

Earthquake with magnitude of 6.0 hits San Francisco area overnight.

Meanwhile Maureen Dowd, on a completely different note, has a column on President Obama in The Washington Post. Apparently there is more talk about the President's golf game than Tiger's golf game (what little there might be of that).  For newbies, Ms Dowd, politically, is a bit left of Algore. This is her opening:

FORE! Score? And seven trillion rounds ago, our forecaddies brought forth on this continent a new playground, conceived by Robert Trent Jones, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal when it comes to spending as much time on the links as possible — even when it seems totally inappropriate, like moments after making a solemn statement condemning the grisly murder of a 40-year-old American journalist beheaded by ISIL.

I know reporters didn’t get a chance to ask questions, but I had to bounce. I had a 1 p.m. tee time at Vineyard Golf Club with Alonzo Mourning and a part-owner of the Boston Celtics. Hillary and I agreed when we partied with Vernon Jordan up here, hanging out with celebrities and rich folks is fun.

Something tells me the international Muslim community will come to rue the day when the "Islamic State" went mainstream. 

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I'm in a Lana Del Rey mood this morning, 7:45 a.m., overcast, cool (cold?), intermittent rain -- though it appears that it might have rained itself out overnight -- but with the Napa Valley earthquake, maybe, this is better --

California Dreamin', The Mamas and the Papas

My father and I went out for Mexican dinner last night. We struck up a conversation with two seasoned oil workers. They had both been in the Bakken for about two and a half years. They have long commutes: one lives in Roseau, Minnesota (457 miles); the other in Las Vegas (1,285 miles).

The former moved to Roseau so his sons could play hockey. I remember years ago, while stationed at Grand Forks AFB, how Roseau was the hockey capital of the world, it seemed. I don't remember why that was so. Lots of hockey up there. It must be incredibly beautiful. Lake Country. Ten miles from Canada.

I mentioned that I thought the Las Vegas economy was coming back. Yes, it was and quite nicely -- one difference -- wages were coming in lower than pre-recession. He said he had been in the oil industry for 27 years when he retired, but after 11 months he couldn't take retirement any more. His friends told him he should "travel the world" in retirement. He noted that he "traveled the world" for 27 years while working oil. He loves what he is doing now. He looked to be 35 years old.

We talked a bit of oil, and I would have loved to talk more, but I got the feeling they enjoyed talking about everything other than oil. Incredibly knowledgeable and incredibly witty.

I would like to add their nationalities / ethnic background but it would spoil the story.

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Global Warming

If that volcano blows, Great Britain could experience coldest winter in its history. I think the UK is well-prepared: they have all that solar and wind energy ready to kick in if extra energy is needed for heating homes.

Permit Projections -- August 23, 2014; Another EOG "400-Series" Well

North Dakota data. 

Permits issued as of this date, August 22:

• 2014: 1,879
• 2013: 1,567
• 2012: 1,431

Projection on this date for total permits issued by end of calendar year:

• 2014: 2,931
• 2013: 2,444
• 2012: 2,232

My numbers may differ from those of the NDIC or others. These are only oil and gas permits; no salt water disposal well permits.

***************************

EOG has another "400-series" permit:

• 29190, SI/NC-->TATD --> conf (noted 9/16) --> 622, EOG, Parshall 406-34H, Parshall. I talked about the EOG "400-series" wells earlier; short lateral; Bakken NOS; middle Bakken target; drilling fluid: salt water in the lateral; spud date, October 14, 2014; FTD date, October 21, 2014; target, Middle Bakken (in zone: 100%); 5,263' lateral; 640-acre spacing; tracked here; 21 stages; cum 5.1 million lbs; t10/16; cum 47K 5/17;

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Global Warming

Some weeks ago I mentioned that I had a perception that it really was cooler this summer than past summers. Now the data is starting to come in. Watts Up With That is reporting:

It's been a "cold summer": US daily record minimums outnumbered record maximums 3 to 1 in the last 30 days. Plus, there have been new snowfall records, almost unheard of in summer. 

But WUWT is reporting some "strange things happening over at government-sponsored weather sites."

Weather Underground is reporting winter in August in Wyoming and Montana, and I assume this weather will track east, giving relief to hot summer weather in the east.

Video, Moving Dirt, Northwest Of Williston -- August 23, 2014

Updates

August 25, 2014: see first comment. A reader provides this update on The Ridge, northwest of Williston:

The Ridge has already broken ground. They already have 8 huge apartments complexes that are already occupied or under construction. Also numerous 6-plexes and single family homes under construction. This is their phase 1.

Phase 2, to the north of phase 1, is getting ready to build the new city park and west of phase 2 will be the location of the new high school. Phase 2 will go all the way north to the entrance of the municipal golf course.

The video you shot east of Harvest Hills, is the ROERS project. It will include a housing for a few thousand people and will include apartments, twin homes, single family and commercial.

SpartanNash is supposed to be building a grocery store along with other commercial on the western edge of the development (across the street from Harvest Hills area).

Original Post

It's a cool (almost cold), overcast, rainy day here in Williston. I couldn't find an open seat at "Books on Broadway" so I'm at "The Daily Addiction" on Main Street, which is fairly busy. The college students at the next table over suggest that summer is over; that it's now autumn. One said he dreamt last night that it was snowing. He was not far off. This morning, I actually thought it might snow. It looks like it will be this way all weekend with a high in the mid-50's, and we won't see 60 degrees until Monday, when it should quit raining.

I'm not in the mood to go out touring: a) highways too risky; b) back roads too muddy.

**********************************

This is just a short throw-away video, nothing of real interest here.

Turn OFF the volume.

This is just a bit of activity northwest of Williston, on the east side of the main road on the east side of Harvest Hills, the huge subdivision northwest of Williston.

As noted earlier, in addition to this new development to the east of Harvest Hills, "The Ridge" is getting ready to break ground to the north of Harvest Hills.

Across the road from Harvest Hills, to the east, overlooking Williston  

35 mph = 184,800 feet/hour = 51 feet / sec; the video lasts 35 seconds = almost 1,800 feet frontage. Not a trivial development, either.  

**********************************

Main Street, Williston

Random photo of current infrastructure work on south Main, Williston, North Dakota. 

NPR: Truth In Renewable Energy Costs -- The Road To New England -- August 23, 2014; Hopefully $125 Million Makes People Feel Better

The first link was sent to me by Steven. Thank you.

Note the source: New Hampshire Public Radio. One wonders how much influence the liberal college students have in these decisions, that once they leave the state will not be affected by the results.

New Hampshire Public Radio is reporting:

A new biomass plant in Berlin is finally producing electricity for Public Service of New Hampshire under a controversial 20-year contract that a report says will cost PSNH ratepayers $125 million more than if the electricity was purchased on the open market...

That estimate came from the consulting firm of La Capra Associates which did the report for the state's Public Utilities Commission as part of a wide-ranging review of PSNH’s operations.

In a statement PSNH said the La Capra report isn’t a sure thing because its conclusions are “highly dependent on a number of issues that are uncertain and difficult to predict - the future price of gas, the retirement of other power plants, and new infrastructure development, among other things." 

My hunch: the estimates are low-balled; they don't want to be responsible for any public lynchings or Ferguson-like looting by disgruntled citizens.

I'm always impressed how precise the estimates can be. In this case,  $125 million, not "more than $100 million" or "more than $125 million," but precisely $125 million. 

*****************************

Chess

Was Putin correct, Obama wrong? Their thoughts, not mine, as being reported by The Washington Post:

What a difference a year makes. Around this time last year, the West was gearing up for military action against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was accused of carrying out chemical weapons attacks on his own people. That intervention never came to pass, not least because domestic public opinion in countries such as Britain and the United States was opposed to further entanglements in the Middle East.

It will be interesting to read the history books 30 years from now. My hunch: there will be a totally new ranking of worse presidents ever, and Jimmy Carter will no longer be among the top three.

**********************

Baffled

Even the mainstream press is ... well, baffled.... FoxNews is reporting:

President Obama has few remaining friends—either in his own party or in the media.

That’s the unmistakable conclusion of two pieces this week in the New York Times. Just about everyone, it seems, is down on his single, solitary nature.

I’ve been saying for a year now that the president’s liberal media allies have soured on him. It started with the ObamaCare debacle and continued through his seeming passivity or slow reaction time in the wake of the VA scandal, the Bowe Bergdahl mess, the military collapse in Iraq and so on.

At this point they’re basically Waiting for Hillary.

What is striking now is a growing sense, fairly or unfairly, that Obama is not capable of rising to the occasion, that he just doesn’t like politics, that he’s disengaged, that despite his soaring rhetoric in 2008 he has a passion deficit.

I don't think he's even phoning it in even more. 

By the way, with regard to that "passion deficit" -- listen to that speech after the video-taped beheading, something about justice, and then off to golf.

********************************

In mainstream media, night of August 23, 2014, it is being reported that ISIS is about ready to massacre an Iraqi village (through the UN) and the president issues an executive order directing a federal review of the informal process of "militarizing" America's police.  Could the Feds disarm American law enforcement?