Bakken Projections Published In Boston Herald

From The Boston Herald:

Oil production in North Dakota and Montana's Bakken and Three Forks formations will average 1.1 million barrels per day this year, according to estimates announced Wednesday by a research firm.

Wood Mackenzie anticipates that oil production in the North Dakota and Montana sections of the Bakken and Three Forks formations will grow to 1.7 million barrels per day in 2020. [The Bentek study said 2.2 million bopd by 2022, so "we're" in the same ballpark.]

"We're very confident on the future of the Bakken," said Jonathan Garrett, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie. He added that the expected lifetime of a Bakken well is 25 years to 30 years.

Wood Mackenzie projects that $15 billion will be spent on drilling and completion of wells by Bakken participants in 2014.

The research firm also said there is close to $118 billion in remaining value in the American portions of the Bakken and Three Forks formations, which also stretch into Canada's Saskatchewan and Manitoba provinces.

A reader alerted me to the article and made a number of interesting observations about the article.

Two comments: first, one about drilling and completions CAPEX this year; and, second, "remaining value" in the Bakken.

1. $15,000,000,000 / 2,400 wells = $6.25 million / well. A fair number of Williston Basin wells will be very inexpensive Spearfish wells which would bring the cost/well down, but the article specifically says "Bakken participant." Everything I've seen suggests average well costs will be about $8 million at best, and several analysts have said KOG will have rates higher than the average. There must be a lot of very inexpensive Bakken wells on the margins of the Bakken to bring the average down to $6 million / well. One of the few operators who say they can get the cost / well down to about $6 million is Whiting.

2. Harold Hamm suggests the reservoir is close to one trillion bbls OOIP (blogged a long, long time ago). Even at a paltry 5% recovery rate, the total value of the remaining Bakken is staggering, much, much greater than the article above suggests. Even if one assumes half what Harold Hamm says: 500 billion bbls x 5% recovery x $50 / bbl -- the amount is way more than what the article suggests.

Regardless, "fun" to see an article like this in a Boston newspaper. 

Proposed Jamestown (ND) Nitrogen Plant Put On Hold -- Cost Estimates Come In Way Higher Than Expected

Earlier post, same subject.

The Dickinson Press story here.

***************************

Hospitals Laying Off Employees Due to ObamaCare

I was completely unaware of this phenomenon, of hospitals laying off employees due to impact of ObamaCare. I would not have posted the link to this story but one of the regular group at Starbucks this morning also mentioned that the local medical center laid off a large number of non-physician professional staff for the same reason.

It's obviously not unique to the medical profession. The same thing is happening in the American university systems across the country: folks getting laid off due to ObamaCare liabilities. I assume it is a newsy headline because of the "irony" of ObamaCare leading to layoffs in the health care industry.

Be that as it may, here's the link to the story.

April Fool's Post -- Your Thoughts? -- Bakken Productivity

I never pass up the chance for a bit of humor.

A reader sent me this link the other day. I completely fell for it, thinking it was "legit." I didn't get a chance to post it / link it, because I was running behind schedule. Today, it was noted that the blog/post was an April Fool's joke. I completely missed it, hook, line, and sinker, as they say.

I'm curious. Would you, the reader, have seen the April Fool's joke? Be honest -- no one will know.

But here's the link to the bogus data/analysis. Note the comments.

I actually thought it was pretty good. And if it's on the internet, it must be true. LOL.

Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; KOG Taking It To The Bank(s) -- Four Big Koala Wold Wells

When I was last up in the Bakken, a few weeks ago, I was told to "watch" the Banks. See below the KOG wells reported today, and Statoil to report a Banks well tomorrow. Also, note in new permits, two more Stockyard Creek permits. For such a small field, it is sure active. 

Active rigs:

	4/2/2014	04/02/2013	04/02/2012	04/02/2011	04/02/2010
Active Rigs	190	184	207	170	103

Six (6) new permits --

• Operators: Whiting (2), Slawson (2), Oasis, American Eagle
• Fields: Park (Billings), Stockyard Creek (Williams) Missouri Ridge (Williams)
• Comments: American Eagle has a permit for a wildcat; still more wells in Stockyard Creek east of Williston

Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Five (5) producing wells completed:

• 25804, 1,837, KOG, Koala Wold 153-97-1-5-29-1H3, Banks, t3/14; cum --
• 25803, 1,573, KOG, Koala Wold 153-97-1-5-8-15H3, Banks, t3/14; cum --
• 25802, 1,944, KOG, Koala Wold 153-97-1-5-9-15H, Banks, 4 secs, t3/14; cum --
• 25805, 2,054, KOG, Koala Wold 153-97-1-5-29-2H, Banks, t3/14; cum --
• 26053, 949, CLR, Winston 5-12H1, Long Creek, t3/13; cum --

Wells coming off confidential list Thursday:

• 24373, drl, Statoil, Garmann 19-18 2TFH, Banks, no production data,
• 26074, drl, Hess, BL-Iverson 155-95-1819H-2, Beaver Lodge, no production data,
• 26331, drl, Hess, GN-Dalseng-158-97-1102H-1, New Home, no production data,

The Mineral Rights Handbook

Update

3:51 p.m. central time: I just heard back from the author. He said for some reason the e-mail address was not working correctly; he says it's been fixed. I've put the link back up on the sidebar at the right.


 

Original Post

I've heard from a trusted reader that she had trouble downloading the mineral rights handbook linked at the sidebar at the right.

I've sent a note to the author to see if he is aware of any problems with the website or downloading the book after purchasing.

I will take the link down until I hear back from the author just to be on the safe side.