I'm in an incredibly good mood. I must have forgotten to take my meds earlier today. It's almost 11:00 p.m. local time. I was up at 5:30 a.m. this morning so I could be in place at 6:15 a.m. to start the day with my granddaughters. I finally dropped them off with their mother (our daughter) at 9:00 p.m. local time. That's a long day; of course, they are in school from 7:15 a.m. to 2:45 p.m. but outside of those hours, they keep me very, very busy. Quality time only.
On days like these, I barely have time to keep up with business news. I'm glad I no longer watch television. I haven't watched television since July, 2013, except for a few sports events, and then the Golden Globe awards the other night, which I really enjoyed. (Fortunately, several readers watch the news for me, sending me stories and keeping me apprised what's going on in the real world.)
I own absolutely no mineral rights. I invest in several publicly traded Bakken operators, but those investments probably represent less than 1% of my total portfolio. If the Bakken went away tomorrow, I would be devastated but not for financial reasons. I think the Bakken is an incredible story on so many levels. When I started the blog I had no intention of including investment stories but I soon learned that one cannot understand the Bakken without understanding the "business" and thus all the investment posts. Now that I am retired I don't have as much money to invest but whenever I have any cash I invest it. I am an investor, in for the long haul. I seldom trade. I hate the cliche, but I've left a lot of money on the table because I don't buy and sell, but I can pretty much guarantee that I would not do too well if I tried to "time" buying and selling.
So, I pretty much just accumulate. I don't keep track of what I have and I don't keep track of what I've paid. I'm a pretty bad investor by those parameters, but 99% of my portfolio is managed by someone else, anyway (pensions, IRAs, social security, etc).
Having said that, the 1% that is related to the Bakken is a real hoot. I am absolutely convinced that, barring major geopolitical events (including Washington, DC-political events) we have only begun to see the Bakken potential. [One political comment: I am convinced that the administration would ban fracking in a New-York-minute if given the opening, but an outright ban would result in the end of the domestic oil industry. Oil would surge to prices we have not seen and OPEC would be in control once again. But that won't stop the administration; anti-fracking legislation is a given; to what extent it impacts the industry is yet to be seen. That "fact" doesn't impact the irrational exuberant mood that I am in regarding the Bakken. It is what it is.]
There is so much one could talk about when it comes to the Bakken but one thing that is never mentioned, it seems, is the cost of infrastructure. The operators are not idly sitting by, watching the "rail" story or the "pipeline" story play out. They are actively involved and they keep building out takeaway capacity. [The Denver conference at the end of the month on Bakken takeaway should be very, very interesting: see sidebar at the right for details on the conference.]
One of the things in the Bakken that I get the biggest kick out of is pad drilling. Apparently building a pad and building a road to that pad are inconsequential costs for the operators. No one ever talks about them. But let's suppose the cost of building pads and building roads to those pads is not inconsequential. Think about it. Three years ago, CLR was building a new pad for each well, and building a new road for each pad. Pundits talk about the cost of public roads in the oil patch; imagine the private roads to all those wells, all those pads.
But now, CLR has 90% of those roads built, I would argue, for the wells they will be drilling this year. Putting two, four, six, eight (who do we appreciate?) wells on each pad -- and the pads are built, the roads are built, and a walking rig is on the pad. Costs have had to come down over the past two years.
More later if the spirit moves me. All I can say is for investors, the recent pullback in the market is another buying opportunity. Disclaimer: that's just my personal opinion, coming from an investor with about the lousiest investment skills anyone could have. Don't take any advice from me regarding investments. Don't make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or anything you might have read here or thought you read here.
So, unless the spirit moves me to write more later, I'm simply going to sit here and listen to the BeeGees through my geeky huge headphones, and move into my after-midnight music fugue. And forget about the Bakken.
For about thirty seconds.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
Petro-Hunt, MRO Reporting A Nice Well Each; Emerald Oil Reporting Two Nice Wells; For Investors Only -- Five Reasons To Hold COP For The Long Haul
Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
24312, see above, Petro-Hunt, Brenna 152-96-14A-23-7H, Clear Creek:
25231, see above, Emerald, Slugger 1-16-21H, Wildcat
25232, see above, Emerald, Talon 1-9-4H, Charboneeau:
25346, see below, MRO, Abner 21-13TFH, Reunion Bay:
Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read at this site or based on anything you think you might have read at this site.
There are a few contributors at SeekingAlpha I recognize and trust. Michael Fitzsimmons is one. I agree with every one of the five (5) reasons he provides for holding COP for the long haul.
The same could probably be said for EOG.
My hunch: before the year is out, COP will acquire significantly more shale acreage in one of the three big domestic plays. You read it here first.
I doubt anyone will read this far down. The above notes were posted earlier, and now later, I will add this post for personal reasons.
My only purpose in life is taking care of my granddaughters. Yes, I have a number of other things that keep me busy, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), my number one priority is 24/7 care for the granddaughters. When my daughter is off from work and she has the girls, I am "free" and I enjoy that free time. But I prefer being with the granddaughters over anything else.
My days start at 6:15 a.m. with them when one is getting up (the other sleeps in until 7:00 a.m.). Their mom heads off for work about 6:15 five days out of seven; the days vary. Their dad is often on the road, working very hard and very, very long hours.
The day starts at 6:15 with me getting them breakfast; my 6-minute soft-hard boiled egg is second to none. The day ends at 8:30 p.m. It's a long day, to say the least. I am free between 7:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. when they are at school.
I am addicted to the blog, and can't wait to get information posted as quickly as possible. I make a lot of typographical errors but go back and clean them up when I see them. I appreciate folks not writing to tell me of inconsequential typos -- they will be taken care of. But I do need to know if I make a major error. I do most of the posting when the granddaughters are in school, but will continue to post later in the day if there is time. But after 2:30, time with the granddaughters takes priority over the blog and the Bakken will simply have to wait.
Most nights I am exhausted but music rejuvenates me and even when alone, I love to put the big headphones on. Two years ago big headphones were about as geeky as they could be, but now I see they are the "in" thing. It's hard to believe that a $500 pair of headphones can be that much better than the $50 pair I am wearing. So, now I will listen over and over to Norah and Billy Joe and Foreverly. And tomorrow, I will listen over and over to something else.
A bunch of rambling while I listen to Norah and Billy Joe.
- 24312, 2,120, Petro-Hunt, Brenna 152-96-14A-23-7H, Clear Creek, Clear Creek, t10/13; cum 261K 2/16;
- 25231, 1,115, Emerald, Slugger 1-16-21H, Charbonneau/Wildcat, northwest corner of McKenzie, near Antelope, Sather Lake; t8/13; cum 144K 2/16;
- 25232, 1,098, Emerald, Talon 1-9-4H, Charboneau, t8/13; cum 156K 2/16;
- 25346, 2,374, MRO, Abner 21-13TFH, Reunion Bay, 30 stages, 2.3 million lbs, t11/3; cum 191K 2/16;
- 25466, 148, Whiting, Williams 24-25, Bonnie View/Wildcat, southwest corner of the state, Red River wells in this area; t11/13; cum 25K 2/16; pretty much off-line these days;
- 25546, 546, Slawson, Payara 3-21H, Van Hook, t10/13; cum 22K 11/13;
- 25904, 951, CLR, Jefferson 5-17H, Crazy Man Creek, 30 stages, 3.7 million lbs, t1/14; cum 136K 2/16; pretty much off-line since July, 2015; in February, 2016, a sundry form: now on a pump;
***************************
24312, see above, Petro-Hunt, Brenna 152-96-14A-23-7H, Clear Creek:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2013 | 28231 | 37162 |
| 10-2013 | 7288 | 0 |
25231, see above, Emerald, Slugger 1-16-21H, Wildcat
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2013 | 7012 | 0 |
| 10-2013 | 6410 | 0 |
| 9-2013 | 11258 | 0 |
| 8-2013 | 16224 | 0 |
25232, see above, Emerald, Talon 1-9-4H, Charboneeau:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2013 | 6395 | 0 |
| 10-2013 | 8340 | 0 |
| 9-2013 | 11867 | 0 |
| 8-2013 | 19185 | 0 |
| 7-2013 | 2902 | 0 |
25346, see below, MRO, Abner 21-13TFH, Reunion Bay:
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2013 | 18967 | 11738 |
*********************************
There are a few contributors at SeekingAlpha I recognize and trust. Michael Fitzsimmons is one. I agree with every one of the five (5) reasons he provides for holding COP for the long haul.
The same could probably be said for EOG.
My hunch: before the year is out, COP will acquire significantly more shale acreage in one of the three big domestic plays. You read it here first.
***************************
A Note to the Granddaughters
I doubt anyone will read this far down. The above notes were posted earlier, and now later, I will add this post for personal reasons.
My only purpose in life is taking care of my granddaughters. Yes, I have a number of other things that keep me busy, but at the end of the day (and the beginning of the day), my number one priority is 24/7 care for the granddaughters. When my daughter is off from work and she has the girls, I am "free" and I enjoy that free time. But I prefer being with the granddaughters over anything else.
My days start at 6:15 a.m. with them when one is getting up (the other sleeps in until 7:00 a.m.). Their mom heads off for work about 6:15 five days out of seven; the days vary. Their dad is often on the road, working very hard and very, very long hours.
The day starts at 6:15 with me getting them breakfast; my 6-minute soft-hard boiled egg is second to none. The day ends at 8:30 p.m. It's a long day, to say the least. I am free between 7:30 a.m. and 2:30 p.m. when they are at school.
I am addicted to the blog, and can't wait to get information posted as quickly as possible. I make a lot of typographical errors but go back and clean them up when I see them. I appreciate folks not writing to tell me of inconsequential typos -- they will be taken care of. But I do need to know if I make a major error. I do most of the posting when the granddaughters are in school, but will continue to post later in the day if there is time. But after 2:30, time with the granddaughters takes priority over the blog and the Bakken will simply have to wait.
Most nights I am exhausted but music rejuvenates me and even when alone, I love to put the big headphones on. Two years ago big headphones were about as geeky as they could be, but now I see they are the "in" thing. It's hard to believe that a $500 pair of headphones can be that much better than the $50 pair I am wearing. So, now I will listen over and over to Norah and Billy Joe and Foreverly. And tomorrow, I will listen over and over to something else.
A bunch of rambling while I listen to Norah and Billy Joe.
Eighteen (18) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA; Abraxas Comes In With An Excellent Lillibridge Pad -- A Huge Congrats To The Roughnecks! QEP With Two Huge Wells; BR, Statoil Each With A Huge Well (All Based On High IPs)
The Director's Cut was posted earlier today.
I track projections here just for the fun of it. As it stands now, if December production is 2.8% greater than November production (on a daily basis), North Dakota will hit the 1 million bopd milestone. Last year the weather cooperated and December's production (in 2012) was 4.58% greater than November's production. However, November was one of two months in 2012 when daily production actually dropped month-over-month. There was some bad weather in December, 2013, so it is unlikely that North Dakota will hit the one million bopd milestone in December, 2013, and January, 2014, was a bear for weather also. So, we'll see.
Meanwhile, the daily activity report today is coming up next.
Active rigs: huge drop from 193 to 188.
Eighteen (18) new permits --
Eleven (11) producing wells completed:
With regard to #22524, the Funk well. From the file report:
I track projections here just for the fun of it. As it stands now, if December production is 2.8% greater than November production (on a daily basis), North Dakota will hit the 1 million bopd milestone. Last year the weather cooperated and December's production (in 2012) was 4.58% greater than November's production. However, November was one of two months in 2012 when daily production actually dropped month-over-month. There was some bad weather in December, 2013, so it is unlikely that North Dakota will hit the one million bopd milestone in December, 2013, and January, 2014, was a bear for weather also. So, we'll see.
Meanwhile, the daily activity report today is coming up next.
Active rigs: huge drop from 193 to 188.
Eighteen (18) new permits --
- Operators: CLR (6), HRC (5), Oasis (5), Hess (2)
- Fields: Cottonwood (Burke), Big Gulch (Dunn), Eagle Nest (Dunn), Chimney Butte (Dunn)
- Comments:
Eleven (11) producing wells completed:
- 25290, 741, KOG, Charging Eagle 14-14-24-16H3, Twin Buttes, t12/13; cum --
- 25609, 1,018, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-8H, Pershing, t12/13; cum --
- 25608, 1,048, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-7H, Pershing, t11/13; cum 9K 11/13;
- 25607, 1,086, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-6H, Pershing, t11/13; cum 5K 11/13;
- 25606, 1,298, Abraxas, Lillibridge 20-17-5H,Pershing, t11/13; cum 11K 11/13;
- 25306, 2,460, QEP, Paul 1-26-35BH, the Helis Grail, t12/13; cum --
- 25305, 2,243, QEP, Paul 2-26-35BH, the Helis Grail, t12/13; cum --
- 25631, 128, Samson Resources, Comet 2635-2H, Ambrose, t12/13; cum --
- 22524, 48 (no typo), Cornerstone, Funk 2-27-34H, Carter, t8/13; cum 8K 11/13;
- 25655, 2,856, BR, Washburn 43-36TFH, Charlson, t12/13; cum --
- 24360, 4,884, Statoil, Knight 35-26 2H, Banks, t12/13; cum --
With regard to #22524, the Funk well. From the file report:
- the primary pay zone was 10’ to 26’ below the base of the Lower Bakken Shale
- this pay zone was picked for its production potential and quality of reservoir rock
For Investors Only: Bret Jensen On EOG
I recognize and appreciate a few contributors over on SeekingAlpha. Bret Jensen is one of them.
He has a very short piece reminding us that Barclays picked EOG as the energy pick of the year (2014):
He has a very short piece reminding us that Barclays picked EOG as the energy pick of the year (2014):
Some of the E&P names have sold off recently as oil prices have declined to near six month lows. Investors with "dry powder" can now find more attractive entry points on a variety of major producers. One E & P play seems to be popping up on a couple of "2014Top Picks" in energy lists and has declined some ~$20 a share from its recent highs is Eagle Ford & Bakken producer EOG Resources.Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here My welcome/disclaimer explains why I post these investment stories.
North Dakota Crude Oil Production Hits New All-Time High; Decreased Completions Despite Same Number Of Rigs Probably Reflects Pad Drilling
The Director's Cut is posted.
Oil:
November, 20l3: 973,045 bopd (up 2.95% from previous month)
October, 2013: 945,182 bopd
Producing wells:
November, 2013: 10,023
October, 2013: 9, 923
Permitting:
November, 2013: 232
October, 2013: 267
All time high was 370 in 10/2012
Pricing:
Today, 2013: $71.25
December, 2013: $73,47
November, 2013: $71.42
October, 2013: $85.16
Rig count:
Today: 193
December, 2013: 190
November, 2013: 184
October, 2013: 183
Director's comments:
The drilling rig count was unchanged from October to November, but the number of well completions dropped from 166 to 138. NDIC estimates that at the end of November there were about 510 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 50. The NDIC also notes that the rig count in North Dakota is increasing slowly.
Interestingly, there are now two (2) rigs activity drilling on federal land in the Dakota Prairie Grasslands. It had been zero.
Flaring is back up to 30% (up from 28%) mostly due to the temporary shut-down of the Tioga gas plant on November 25th for expansion. Flaring hit a historical high of 36% in 09/11.
I track projected estimates of future oil production at this site.
Oil:
November, 20l3: 973,045 bopd (up 2.95% from previous month)
October, 2013: 945,182 bopd
Producing wells:
November, 2013: 10,023
October, 2013: 9, 923
Permitting:
November, 2013: 232
October, 2013: 267
All time high was 370 in 10/2012
Pricing:
Today, 2013: $71.25
December, 2013: $73,47
November, 2013: $71.42
October, 2013: $85.16
Rig count:
Today: 193
December, 2013: 190
November, 2013: 184
October, 2013: 183
Director's comments:
The drilling rig count was unchanged from October to November, but the number of well completions dropped from 166 to 138. NDIC estimates that at the end of November there were about 510 wells waiting to be completed, an increase of 50. The NDIC also notes that the rig count in North Dakota is increasing slowly.
Interestingly, there are now two (2) rigs activity drilling on federal land in the Dakota Prairie Grasslands. It had been zero.
Flaring is back up to 30% (up from 28%) mostly due to the temporary shut-down of the Tioga gas plant on November 25th for expansion. Flaring hit a historical high of 36% in 09/11.
I track projected estimates of future oil production at this site.
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