Sunday, September 22, 2013

Some Idle Musings

Updates

October 1, 2013: another "Debbie Downer" story for Statoil.  

Original Post

One gets a general feeling that Norway/Statoil is "anxious" about how their oil industry is going.

There have been a number of stories about Statoil/Norway suggesting all is not perfect in the land of the midnight sun. I generally do not post those articles. But the stories have to do with taxes, Norway's new government, carbon capture costs, challenges in the Arctic, etc.

The Chinese oil companies are in everyone's rear view mirrors.

Yesterday, The Dickinson Press posted a story about a group of Norwegian officials traveling to North Dakota for a weeklong study of the Bakken.

There have been several articles recently about possible merger and acquisition activity in the Bakken.

In the past week, both WallStCheatSheet and Bloomberg had an article about a possible takeover candidate in the Bakken.

Some Bakken operators have said pretty clearly they would be interested in talking M&A activity.

Some data points in the table below. I left some columns empty in case I want to add something later.

Disclaimer: all data comes from Yahoo!Finance and or MWD databases. The former may be somewhat outdated (I assume Yahoo!Finance depends on quarterly data); and, MWD databases may be completely inaccurate, but they are what I have. I also make a lot of typographical errors. This entire post is for my benefit to help me keep track of things going on in the Bakken. I am posting it FYI only. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read at this blog or think you may have read at this blog.


CompanyMkCapDebtTotalAcres/BakkenOperCashFlow


STO72.15 B24.10 B96.25 B258,000*17 B


WLL6.67 B2.25 B8.92 B697,000 1.51 B


OAS4.24 B1.20 B5.44 B492,000600 M


KOG3.01 B1.45 B4.46 B196,000392 M


TPLM0.891B1.05B1.95 B144,35030 M






* STO: 378,000 acres in the Williston Basin Bakken (258,000 in North Dakota; the rest in Montana). This is the acreage that MWD last recorded that BEXP had before it was bought by Statoil; since then I do not know how much the acreage has changed.

All acreage figures rounded to nearest thousand.

Some idle chatter.

It's hard for me to deal with "billions," so dropping some zeroes, if the decision to buy a house that cost $544,000 or another house that cost $446,000 spread out over 30 years would almost be moot. At 5% over 30 years, the first house wold have a monthly payment of about $2,900; the the second house would cost about $2,400/month. (And if the second house was in a jurisdiction with higher property taxes, the difference becomes even less. But I digress.)

Both Oasis and Kodiak are pure E&P Bakken operators.

WLL does much more than just E&P; and, it has operations throughout the west and south United States. A buyer could sell off non-E&P assets and get a toehold in more than just the Bakken.

Doing some simple division yields some interesting numbers.  

Again, there could be some huge errors in the numbers above. But that's where I'm starting.

Miscellaneous Energy Links From Last Week; Takeover Candidates; Road Construction In North Dakota

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

On Friday, WallStCheatSheet identified Oasis as one of four companies that might be a takeover candidate:
In September, Oasis has reached agreements to add 161,000 acres in the Williston Basin, which includes the Bakken formation, providing it more real estate in the region relative to its $5.2-billion enterprise value than any similar-sized rival, said data compiled by Bloomberg. Now that Oasis is one of the largest landholders in the biggest continuous shale-oil deposit in the United States, and Sterne Agee Group Inc. said that it might entice takeover interest.
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Bloomberg also reported on Friday:
No explorer in the oil-rich Bakken shale formation offers more bang for the buck than Oasis Petroleum Inc. 
Oasis this month signed agreements to add 161,000 acres in the Williston Basin, which includes the Bakken formation, giving it more real estate in the region relative to its $5.2 billion enterprise value than any similar-sized competitor, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. With Oasis now one of the biggest landholders in the largest continuous shale-oil deposit in the U.S., Sterne Agee Group Inc. said it may lure takeover interest.
Companies mentioned: Statoil and Repsol. And more:
Oasis agreed this month to spend about $1.5 billion on four separate acquisitions of assets in the Williston formation, which encompasses the Bakken and Three Forks shale formations, boosting its holdings by 49 percent to 492,000 acres. After the deal, the company will be the seventh-largest holder of Bakken acreage, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Oasis’s enlarged Bakken position signals its “commitment to be a pure-play” and makes the company more enticing to acquirers, Tim Rezvan, a New York-based analyst at Sterne Agee, wrote in a Sept. 10 report.
“The Bakken naturally comes to the top of everybody’s list” for U.S. oil-play acquisitions, Andrew Coleman, a Houston-based analyst at Raymond James, said in a phone interview. Oasis has “a nice footprint of acreage. As you get to a position that is closer to a top-five position in the Bakken, the bigger guys, the international guys may want to come in.” 
Much more at the link. 

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MDU press release last Monday re: road construction in North Dakota:
Knife River Corp., a subsidiary of MDU Resources Group Inc., has received a $51 million North Dakota highway construction contract for a bypass project on Highway 85. This is the largest road construction contract Knife River has been awarded in the state.

Just A Quick Reminder

Comparing the Bakken to other oil plays in the United States.

Wells Coming Off Confidentail List Over The Weekend, Monday; Oasis And Newfield To Report Nice Wells

Monday, September 23, 2013
24259, drl, BR, Glacier 14-9MBH, Clear Creek, no production data,
24634, drl, Statoil, Blanche 27-22 7H, Painted Woods, no production data,
24998, 1,565, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-3H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 16K 7/13;

Sunday, September 22, 2013
23602, 284, Baytex, Pulvermacher 34-27-162-99H 1NC, Ambrose, t5/13; cum 16K 7/13;,
24137, 266, North Plains, Sorenson 160-100-27-34-4A-1H, Smokey Butte, t5/13; cum 25K 7/13;
24787, drl, KOG, Smokey 13-7-19-14H3M,  Pembroke, no production data,
24929, conf-->loc, CLR, Tangsrud 12-1H3, Hayland, no production data,
24943, 1,780, XTO, Sax 41X-26D, Siverston, t8/13; cum --

Saturday, September 21, 2013
23093, drl, QEP, MHA 3-06-31H-150-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
23097, drl, QEP, MHA 2--06-31H-150-92, Heart Butte, no production data,
23464, 428, Triangle, Dwyer 149-101-2-11-1H, Antelope Creek, t5/13; cum 36K 7/13;
23702, 3,072, Oasis, Taylor N 5200 14-29B, Camp, t4/13; cum 46K 7/13;
24022, 1,549, Oasis, Autumn Wind State 5601 14-16B, Tyrone, t3/13; cum 39k 7/13;
24633, drl, Statoil, Blanche 27-22 2TFH, Painted Woods, no production data,
24809, drl, CLR, Wahpeton 9-16H,  Banks, no production data,
24870, drl, Hess, EN-Fretheim A 155-93-3334H-7, Robinson Lake, no production data,
24940, 27, Corinthian, Backman 15-35, North Souris, a Spearfish well, t6/13; cum 1K 7/13;
24973, 2,437, MRO, Brigner 24-24H, Bailey, t7/13; cum 11K 7/13;
24996, 1,541, Newfield, Lawlar 150-98-18-19-2H, Siverston, t7/13; cum 19k 7/13;;
25095, drl, Hess, LK-Bice 147-97-1201H-5, Big Gulch, no production data,
25113, 1,592, MRO, Glenn Scott 24-31H, Murphy Creek, t7/13; cum 14K 7/13;

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23702, see above, Oasis, Taylor N 5200 14-29B, Camp:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
7-20137500
6-2013112065829
5-20131095011172
4-20131928810901
3-201333010

Best Quote Of The Day

CNBC is reporting: Government Motors ...
... plans to more than double the range of the typical electric vehicle—while also sharply driving down the cost, according to a senior official.
But with mounting concerns about the slow consumer response to the first wave of battery electric vehicles, Doug Parks, GM's global product development chief, cautioned The Associated Press that it was not yet sure if or when such a vehicle—projected to cost just $30,000—would ever go into production
As I told Don yesterday:
I also plan on building an electric automobile manufacturing plant outside my apartment complex. My goal is to design and manufacture an electric SUV that will go 500 miles on a single charge and will cost less than a Ford Focus. I have the same concerns as GM, however: "I am not sure if or when such a vehicle would ever go into production." I'm not even sure I will get around to building the plant. But I dream about it.
LOL.
This is a news story?