Remember: the magic number is 200,000

Note: this story was posted/linked earlier. In that post, the emphasis was first-time unemployment benefits claims: higher than expected.

This post is from the same story, the same link, but a different emphasis: new jobs.

 Employers added 120,000 new jobs to their payrolls in March, the least since October, after averaging 246,000 jobs per month over the prior three months.

"We seem to be chasing our tail with the labor market now with seemingly reported declines in weekly numbers coming from persistently higher levels week-after-week," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economist strategist at Miller Tabak in New York. "Today’s reading also gives the uncomfortable drift upwards in initial claims the feel of a trend rather than aberration."

Trend?

Regardless, adding 120,000 new jobs after averaging 246,000/month for the past three months is a dismal data point. 

.... And Speaking of The Dismal Jobs Report Today ...

Not just bullish, but wildly bullish

Most investors have probably heard of Meredith Whitney, perhaps best described as Debbie Downer of Wall Street.

CNBC talking head noted "an area where she's wildly bullish":

"I am wildly bullish on the U.S. in particular markets...I think the U.S. market looks terrific (though) as a collective the U.S. market is not going to grow all together," she said during a "Closing Bell" interview.

"There's opportunity from Texas all the way up to North Dakota, and you can play every industry on that basis," she added. "It's the agriculture-commodity belt — also the Right to Work states. That's where businesses are moving because it's easier to operate and create jobs. So you see a massive demographic shift to those areas."

Those are her words, not mine.

A huge "thank you" to Don for sending me this little nugget. 

Her comments sound a lot like the post of January 21, 2011 (more than a year ago) when "we" compared North Dakota and Minnesota. If you go to the link, scroll down to the "original post."

The nut of that post:

For one thing, a very well-respected company and, should we say, an icon of Minnesota has recently expanded, building three new plants on the North Dakota side of the border. Warroad-based Marvin Windows and Doors has opened North Dakota plants in Fargo, West Fargo and Grafton.

• Marvin’s John Kirchner explained why the firm expanded to North Dakota in the last several years: “The regulatory and tax climate in North Dakota ... tend to be more friendly toward the business." 

Also, Kirchner said, it takes too long to get state permits, delaying expansion plans. While pledging that “we are not going to walk away from Minnesota” and saying Warroad will remain Marvin’s home and biggest factory, North Dakota is a good location for company manufacturing plants, he said.

 I'm not going to take the time to link it, but the biggest news coming out of Minnesota in the last week or so, is a Minnesota senator joking about the state capitol at Bismarck -- the building, not the politics. I guess that's about all some have to offer.

First Time Unemployment Claim -- Unchanged -- Still Near 3-Month High -- Four-Week Average Rises At Highest in Three Months

Remember: the magic number is 400,000

Link here.

The lede:

The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits remained stuck near a three-month high last week, a sign that hiring has likely slowed since winter. 

Data points:

• weekly applications down 1,000, to 388,000; little changed from last week; last week's number --> highest since January 7, 2012 -- almost four months ago
• four-week average: rose to 381,750

And then lots of yada, yada, yada.

XOM Earnings: Revenues Increase; Income/Share Drops

Link here.

Net income fell to $9.45 billion ($2 per share) vs. $10.65 billion ($2.14 per share) a year earlier. This is a decline of 11.3% year-over-year.

Revenue rose 8.8% to $124.05 billion year-over-year.

Exxon Mobil Corporation fell short of the mean analyst estimate of $2.09 per share. Analysts were expecting revenue of $124.76 billion.

RBN Energy: Looking at Natural Gas Production

RBN Energy link.

Remember all that talk about cutting back on natural gas production a couple weeks ago? I haven't hearad much since, and RBN Energy is suggesting the cutback was shortlived.

Check out those year-to-date numbers.  Dry production up 4.6 Bcf/d, or 7.7% versus last year.  That has kicked Canadian and LNG imports in the teeth, down -15% and -48%, respectively. 

Power burn (gas used for power generation ) is up year-to-date by an incredible 4.9 Bcf/d or 29%.  That is the only thing that is keeping this market afloat.  Because industrial demand is down slightly (by -1%) and residential/commercial demand is lower by -18%.  The obvious implication is that there is a lot more gas going into storage, and that is why the gas market is on pins and needles trying to figure out if enough storage capacity exists to hold all the inventory that will need to be stored by the time this injection season is over – and that’s sometime in November.

“But wait”, you say.  “What happened to all of those announcements from producers that were going to be cutting back supplies because of low prices?

There is a nice analysis of this at the link.