Playing With Numbers: Permits, Confidential Wells, Wells Reporting

There are 746 wells on the NDIC confidential well list, for those who are keeping track. This number has not changed much over the past few months.

Today, March 10, 2010, is the 69th day of the calendar year. NDIC has granted 224 permits this calendar year. That puts us on track for 1,185 permits for 2010. 

For comparison, here are the numbers for the past four years. The number in red is the total number of permits issued that year. The number in parentheses is the number of permits that were executed (drilled) and have come off the confidential list -- many (most?) wells are not drilled the year of the permit.

2006: 422 (195)
2007: 497 (336)
2008: 953 (734)
2009: 626 (208).

Obviously the numbers inside the parentheses (wells drilled) will increase over time (as the wells are drilled and come off the confidential list).

A few of the permits have been canceled or expired, but it is (was) only a handful.

The rest is "back of the envelope calculations" and is subject to interpretation: From 2006, approximately 200 permits are yet to be drilled/reported; for 2007, about 160; for 2008, about 200; and for 2009, 400.  Thus, from 2006, there is a backlog of about 960 wells yet to be reported, not counting those in 2010.  And completed wells permitted in 2010 are still on the confidential list. Adding the 224 permits for 2010 and the 960 permits (2006 - 2009, inclusive), that makes about 1200 permits/wells. Minus the approximately 750 confidential wells, that makes 450 permits yet to be acted upon. Those 450 wells plus another 1000 new permits this year and "we" have almost 1500 permits that could be in play for 2010.

Today, there are 102 active rigs in North Dakota.

Doomsday: US Health Care

Miami's major hospital network is on verge of financial failure. March 10, 2010.

Acadia 31-2H, 17681, St Mary Now; Was BR

In today's daily activity report, it was reported that there has been a change of operator for Acadia 31-2H, file # 17681.

• The "old" operator: Burlington Resources.
• The "new" operator: St Mary
• That well is currently at 20,000 feet, total depth, but I don't have any further information.

Update, January 31, 2020: new operator -- Oasis.

• 17681, 441, Oasis, Acadia 31-25H, Dimmick Lake, t8/09; cum 136K 11/19;

A mediocre well at best. It remains the only well in this drilling unit. 

102

102 active rigs in North Dakota.

The record in 2008 was 95, before the number of active rigs dropped to 33 in 2009. Since then it has been a slow but steady rise.

Analysts expect to see as many as 120 active rigs in North Dakota by mid-2010.

Update on a Conventional Well

This is an important well: this is a vertical well, not a horizontal.
This well targeted the Lodgepole formation, not the Bakken or the TFS.
No decline in production after five months.
NO WATER: it costs money to truck away water!

The well: Laurine Engel 1
Operator: Armstrong
Location: Dickinson, North Dakota
Field: Patterson Lake
Pool: Lodgepole
Spud Date: August 5, 2009
Total Depth: 9,754 - VERTICAL (not horizontal)
Completion Date: Sep 4, 2009 (one month)
Press Release: February 5, 2010, IP = 463 bopd
Cumulative oil first five  months: 61,363 barrels

September, 2009: 9,893 barrels
October, 2009: 12,091 barrels
November, 2009: 13,607 barrels
December, 2009: 13, 277 barrels
January, 2010: 12, 495 barrels
Notice: not much of a decline rate yet

At $60/bbl = $3.6 million at the wellhead

Armstrong has another permit in the same field (the Patterson Lake), file # 18496. It is located 1,900 feet to the northwest of the Larine Engel 1. That well will be named the Gruman 18-3. 

The phenomenal Dinsdale well is located in the same general location, inside Dickinson, and 2.5 miles to the northeast.