Locator: 50405IRAN.
What's the LNG price spread between the US and Europe? Link here. In round numbers, $17 vs $3.
One can see where this is headed.
And why haven't the Houthis been more aggressive with action at the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden?
If the two major straits in the Mideast are constrained, the open oceans between China/India and Canada /US / Mexico become much more enviable -- Europe / Britain become the big losers and the western hemisphere gains at Europe's / Britain's expense.
The western hemisphere has a huge energy advantage. China / India return to coal; Japan turns to nuclear energy. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar can all see the writing on the wall even if the writing is not in Arabic. The risk: the writing on the wall is Farsi. Regardless of how this all turns out, Trump still sits in the catbird seat.
The really, really cool part of all this? Despite the mainstream media not being able to follow Trump, the the leaders in Britain, Europe, Russia, the Mideast, India, and China all understand what's happening and where it leads.
In less than three weeks, Trump's Department of War stands down (doesn't leave the area) and lets those who need passage through Bab al-Mandeb and Hormuz deal with the problem. Most likely outcome, those countries will accept the financial cost to access those straits and Iran / Yemen monetize their positions. This is not rocket science.
I'm curious though: where is Britain getting that information or where are these 40 countries meeting to discus post-war Iran? At the UN? LOL.
That's my assessment. What's the assessment over at The New York Times? Link here. Five takeaways by Luke Broadwater and Tyler Pager. Luke covers state and US politics; and, Tyler likes to write about how Trump makes decisions.
The authors' five takeaways:
- no clear path to the off-ramp: we've talked about this ad nauseum; yes, let's tell Iran exactly what our plans are; we've already said too much;
- keep the war in perspective: the authors noted he won't turn this into America's war (Vietnam) and it certainly is not WWI or WWII -- okay, that's brilliant;
- appeared to rule out a raid on Iran's uranium buried deep under tons of rubble: this is the most interesting observation and Luke and Tyler completely miss the obvious;
- the strait is not America's problem: this is the most consequential;
- the Venezuela mission: this has nothing to do with anything.
