The UAW Strike -- An Update -- October 4, 2023

Locator: 45643UAW.

How to "gauge" the strike

• how fast and how wide Fain expands the work stoppage;
• company layoffs with factory closures due to "supply chain interruptions caused by strike"
• in other words, who blinks first.

UAW strike: update -- 

Ford and GM: argument to "drag their feet." Previously discussed. From Barron's:

From the Barron's article:

• with regard to EVs, a short lede with the good news; then --
• the bad news
• EV inventory building; demand dropping;
• inventories are running at 97 days of demand; compared with 57 days for traditional vehicles
• OEM's survived two years of Covid-19 lock down; the UAW strike won't last that long
• winter coming -- bad news for EVs for two reasons
• overall auto sales drop in dead of winter
• winter can cut range of EVs by 25%
  
• sales growth:
• F:
• US EV sales rose 6% y/y (through August)
• Tesla:
• US EV sales rose 30% over same time period
• geography:
• California: EV sales could account for 23% of new sales (wow!)
• Michigan and Ohio: same data point -- 3% (huge ouch)
• both GM and F have lots of assembly plants and employees in Michigan, Ohio
• locals aren't rushing to buy EVS: cold weather can cut EV range by 25%
• EV industry is well out of the early-adoption phase
• poll: all things being equal -- price and range; would you rather buy:
• a Tesla
• a Ford EV
• if you answered Ford EV, you are not paying attention
• like the Barbie movie, let's ask the question again
  
• poll: all things being equal -- price and range; would you rather buy:
• a Tesla
• a Ford EV

Why much is at risk if they "drag their feet." Auto manufacturers, global: I had never seen this graphic before. It's really quite astounding when you think about it. 

And again, one has to ask, how did do many companies get so much wrong. Ferrari with a market cap greater than both Ford and GM (individually, not combined). And Mercedes Benz with a larger market cap than VW, the biggest auto company in the world (by other measures) -- needs to be fact-checked. This graphic is nice to have for the archives. We can check market cap again after the UAW strike is resolved, and again in five years.