Friday, March 18, 2022

About Those 9,000 Permits -- March 18, 2022

9,000 permits: that's the number of permits the White House press secretary says the oil industry is sitting on, the number of permits that they "stockpiled" in anticipation of a Biden presidency. 

They say that is more than adequate if US shale would just drill those permits.

Today, it is announced that the number of active rigs in the US now total 766 rigs.

 

Back-of-the-envelope:

  • 9,000 / 766 = 12
  • those 766 rigs could each drill twelve wells and the 9,000 locations/permits would be exhausted
  • a rig can easily drill one well every two weeks
  • 12 x 2 = 24 weeks
    • March: 2
    • April: 4
    • May: 4
    • June: 4
    • July: 4
    • August: 4
    • September: 2
  • by mid-September, 2022, those 766 rigs could drill those 9,000 locations
    • just in time for the mid-term elections
    • am I missing something here?
  • something tells me that the White House press secretary is either unaware of how fast US shale can drill and / or is unable to do the math
    • or both

By the way, that 766-rig count was from March 16, 2022. Since then, the rig count in North Dakota has jumped two or three rigs based on NDIC's daily activity report. 

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