Thursday, August 14, 2025

Don't Worry -- Be Happy -- Rivian -- At The Edge -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48863RIVIAN.

Link here.

From The Wall Street Journal. Link here.

From the linked article: 

Electric truck maker Rivian says the rollback of fuel economy rules in the U.S. is holding up $100 million of revenue, a sign of how changes to automotive policy under the Trump administration are starting to hurt the electric-vehicle industry.  

Rivian and its rivals have generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue selling credits tied to the nation’s fuel economy rules. But after the Trump administration removed penalties for violating those standards, the nation’s top automotive regulator stopped issuing paperwork necessary to finalize those credits, leaving EV makers in the lurch. 

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said the change was part of moves to overturn Biden-era EV rules and address Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, known as CAFE. “NHTSA is focusing on fixing CAFE standards to make cars more affordable again,” a NHTSA spokesperson said. “When that process is complete, we will return to issuing compliance letters to manufacturers.”

Last week, the Zero Emission Transportation Association, an EV trade group, filed a petition to the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D.C., asking the court to intercede. The group wants to force NHTSA to resume issuing the so-called compliance letters—certifications that show how much each automaker complies with or violates the nation’s fuel economy rules. ZETA declined to comment.

The dispute highlights a lesser-known part of the U.S. auto industry: The buying and selling of so-called regulatory credits. Revenue from these credits has been a reliable stream for EV makers and a hefty expense for legacy carmakers whose fleets contain gas-guzzling pickups and SUVs.

Credit trading is a common practice used by governments to get industries to comply with environmental regulations, according to financial analysts and environmental organizations. Carmakers whose vehicles exceed gas-mileage rules can generate credits and sell those to competitors who are in violation of the rules, helping offset any fines they may face. 

The ticker:

Anticipation -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48862INVESTING.

The only "thing" that explains this is FOMO and MOJO. We've moved away from YOLO a long time ago.

Okay ... then there's this:

Tariffs, smariffs. LOL. 

Blame it on the bossa nova

China Said To Be Introducing Miniature SSD Cards -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48861ARCHIVES.

Similar to GoPro's microSD cards.

This seems to be a solution to a problem solved decades ago. 

This seems uneventful.

Link at The Verge

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Pharmaceuticals

Eli Lilly says it will raise European prices of its medicines as Trump pushes for US price cuts. 

Link to The Barron's.

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Ukraine

Trump says Putin ready to make deal on Ukraine. US hopes to include Zelenskyy. -- Source.

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iPhone

Thinnest ever.-- Source.

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OPEC -- Has A Problem

Brazil and Guyana both have large projects coming on-stream imminently. Guyana to add 300,000 bopd beginning next month, September, 2025, and Brazil to add 400,000 bopd later this year (2025). Eric Nuttal.

BRK -- Warren Buffett -- Portfolio Updated -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48860BRK.

Link here.

In most recent filing:

AAPL:

  • BRK sold 20 million shares of Apple stock;
  • still, AAPL remains BRK's largest holding;
  • at its peak, BRK ownd over 915 million shares;
  • now, down to 280 million shares
  • now totals about 22% of BRK's portfolio as of June 30, 2025
  • Apple pays 0.45%;

UNH:

  • bought 5 million shares at an estimated price of $411
  • today, shares selling for $270; after hours, after announcement, $300 / share
  • UNH pays 3.26%;
  • UNH is an undeniable health insurance Goliath
  • my hunch: Buffett knows insurance; 
    • he sees something in UNH that he thinks he can turn around.

More at The Street.

Here's what super-investors have been buying, link here:

Here's what caught my eye among the four lists:

  • still a lot of tech -- Mag 7 --  including AAPL, being bought;
  • UNH: appears on all four lists;
  • everything else: pretty much a hodgepodge of things.

Other:

  • Bill Ackman opens new $1-billion position in Amazon.

BRK's two other mystery stocks, Barron's and comment:

  • home builder Lennar;
  • Nucor;
  • "It’s a mild surprise that Berkshire sought confidentiality for such small investments relative to the total size of its equity portfolio of nearly $300 billion."

End-Of-Day Report -- August 14, 2025

Locator: 48859B.

Social Security: let's start the discussion. The tea leaves suggest the Social Security COLA increase for next year will be 2.9%.

MDU: raises dividend by 8%.

The New Yorker: every month, I ask myself why I continue to subscribe to The New Yorker. Not today!. 

The current issue has a 16-page article on how President Trump invests in America. It's behind a paywall, so later, I will summarize the article. But it will take awhile. There's ever indication that Trump will come out of his presidency wealthier than Hunder Biden, but it could be close. It would be nice if The New Yorker would do the same for both the Obamas and the Bidens. And, of course, I don't think anyone could out-do Barack Obama, coming from where he was when he started to where he is now. So, I put the "presidency" jackpot winners in this order. I'm not measuring net worth; I'm measuring "where they were before the family presidency -- where they ended up after the family presidency":

  • Hunter Biden
  • Barack Obama
  • Hillary and Bill Clinton
  • the Trump family

PGA: with two holes left to play, Scottie Scheffler is now tied for first in the BMW Fedex tournament. 

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Back to the Bakken

MDU: raises dividend by 8%. 

WTI: $63.96. Up over 2%! Whoo-hoo!

Active rigs: 31.

Five new permits, #42215 - #42219, inclusive:

  • Operators: CLR
  • Fields: Last Chance (4); Baker
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for three Louisville FIU wells and two Louisville Federal wells, NESW 7-153-100, 
      • to be sited 1974 / 2062 FSL ad 1412 / 1504 FWL.