Tuesday, August 5, 2025

Movie Night -- Ingrid Bergman Night On TCM -- August 5, 2025

Locator: 48787MOVIES.

TCM.

Movie night, tonight.

First, Notorious. Whoo-hoo!

Then, Casablanca! Another whoo-hoo!

I think I watch Casablanca at least once a year, maybe twice a year. Watching it again tonight. Amazing how much I hear for the first time every time I watch ...  no matter how often I watch it ... the writing is so incredibly good. The foreshadowing is incredible.  

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Casablanca

Reaching its climax. Last ten minutes.

Remains my favorite movie. 

#1: Casablanca.

#2: Citizen Kane

Rivian, Lucid -- 2Q25 -- August 5, 2025

Locator: 48786EVS.

Rivian results: shares down 4%. A bad report. The losses are expected to get even worse than expected for the full year. CEO blaming tariff / trade policy; could get the rare/heavy earth metals from China that it needed; cut production.

  • Production
    • 1Q: 14,000 units
    • 2Q: 6,000 units
    • obvious question: why weren't they stockpiling rare / heavy earth metals
  • Loss:
    • previous estimate, loss for this year: $1.7 billion
    • now, guidance for loss for this. year: $2.5 billion
  • R2: starts at $45,000
  • the interview with the CEO on CNBC did not install much confidence; 

Lucid:

At CNBC.


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Top Ten Global EV Manufacturers

Four New Permits; Three Permits Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- August 5, 2025

Locator: 48785B.

WTI: $65.30.

Active rigs: 32.

Four new permits, #42179 - #42182, inclusive:

  • Operator: BR
  • Field: Elidah (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • BR has permits for three wells (Abersom and two Abercrombie wells) in SESW 12-151-98, 
      • to be sited 375 / 39 FSL and 1695 FWL; and,
    • a fourth well (an Omlid well), SESW 7-151-97, 
      • to be sited 410 FSL and 2132 FWL.

Three permits renewed:

  • XTO: three Roust permits, Hofflund oil field, Williams County;

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 40582, 375, KODA Resources, Stout 1831-5BH, Divide County;

Amgen: Not A Particularly Good Holding Over the Years -- August 5, 2025

Locator: 48784INVESTING.

Super Micro Computer: misses; stock hammered; down 10% after the earnings report.

Skyworks: beat top and bottom line; analog radio receiver; biggest customer: Apple; increased their dividend; guidance, better; up 7% after report came out. I got into Skyworks early based on "the blog" but got out of Skyworks early. at best I broke even.

Amgen: results here.

  • For the second quarter, total revenues increased 9% to $9.2 billion in comparison to the second quarter of 2024. 
    • Product sales grew 9%, driven by 13% volume growth, partially offset by 3% lower net selling price. 
    • Fifteen products delivered at least double-digit sales growth in the second quarter, including Repatha® (evolocumab), EVENITY® (romosozumab-aqqg), IMDELLTRA® (tarlatamab-dlle)/IMDYLLTRA™ (tarlatamab), BLINCYTO® (blinatumomab), TEZSPIRE® (tezepelumab-ekko), UPLIZNA® (inebilizumab-cdon) and TAVNEOS® (avacopan). 
  • GAAP earnings per share (EPS) increased 92% from $1.38 to $2.65, primarily driven by higher revenues. GAAP operating income increased from $1.9 billion to $2.7 billion, and GAAP operating margin increased 6.6 percentage points to 30.3%. 
  • Non-GAAP EPS increased 21% from $4.97 to $6.02, primarily driven by higher revenues, partially offset by higher operating expenses. 
    •  Non-GAAP operating income increased from $3.9 billion to $4.3 billion, and non-GAAP operating margin increased 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%. 
  • The Company generated $1.9 billion of free cash flow in the second quarter of 2025 versus $2.2 billion in the second quarter of 2024, driven by 2024 tax payments deferred to 2025 and higher capital expenditures, partially offset by business performance.

Rivian results: shares down 4%. A bad report. The losses are expected to get even worse than expected for the full year. CEO blaming tariff / trade policy; could get the rare/heavy earth metals from China that it needed; cut production.

  • Production
    • 1Q: 14,000 units
    • 2Q: 6,000 units
    • obvious question: why weren't they stockpiling rare / heavy earth metals
  • Loss:
    • previous estimate, loss for this year: $1.7 billion
    • now, guidance for loss for this. year: $2.5 billion
  • R2: starts at $45,000
  • the interview with the CEO on CNBC did not install much confidence; 

Lucid:


AMD:

  • EPS misses: but shares hold up
  • revenue in line: $3.24 billion
  • Lisa Su will be on CNBC tomorrow morning at 8:00 a.m. CT

AMD / NVDA: Note year-to-date:

  • AMD doing better than Nvidia, completely unexpected:

A Thought Experiment -- August 5, 2025

Locator: 48783SIR.

Let's say prior to  1913, Henry Ford needed a 100,000 employees to manufacture his automobiles. Productivity is "x."

Then, he adopts the moving assembly line. After adopting the modern assembly line, all else remaining the same, Henry Ford requires 25,000 employees to manufacture the same number of automobiles. Productivity is "4x."

All of a sudden, unemployment spikes and productivity surges. 

And the Fed reacts to the unemployment spike. 

The Fed's mandate, dual:

  • inflation;
  • employment.

The right metrics?

I'm going to the pool. Good luck to all. See you later this afternoon.

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The Book Page

Author / personality of the day: Cynthia Griffin Wolff. Wiki.

Cynthia Griffin Wolff, briefly, from one of my journals, from a letter I sent one of my Yorkshire friends back in 2008:

You may have gathered that I'm starting to enter an Emily Dickinson phase.
I've told you about the discount book stores in San Antonio; they are fantastic.  I went there specifically to get a biography of Emily Dickinson and found a hardcover in almost perfect condition ("withdrawn" by some library somewhere; original price $25 for $6.28).
I would have bought this particular biography regardless, but the biography of the author (Cynthia Griffin Wolff) is too remarkable to pass by.  This is the author (not Emily):

 She was born in St Louis; when to Radcliffe; medical degree at Harvard, and then went on to get a Ph.D. in English at Harvard. She taught at Amherst and then holds a specially-designated chair as Professorship of the Humanities at MIT. 
She is also author of "highly acclaimed" biographies of Edith Wharton (who I will eventually get to) and Samuel Richardson (Clarissa, which I am now reading, five pages a night).  As you know, L-- F--  spent a significant amount of her adult life in St Louis, got her medical degree at Harvard, and then became a published author (albeit pretty low in stature, just beginning) just before she died. Life is full of coincidences.
The lady at the checkout counter must have been a librarian once upon a time or she herself is an avid Emily Dickinson fan (had she been wearing a white dress, I would have believed in reincarnation), because when I went to pay, as she was ringing up my three books, she mentioned that there was a wonderful book on understanding Emily's poems, over in the clearance section.  It took quite some time to find the book; it was pretty obscure confirming that the woman who alerted it to me must have been an Emily Dickinson fan, but when I found it -- well worth it.  Again, in perfect condition, originally sold for $15.95, marked down in half, and then on clearance for $2.70.  
(With teacher's discount, the book was essentially given to me for free.)