Stop The Presses -- In-N-Out Burger -- California -- July 19, 2025

Locator: 48786BURGERS.

Updates

July 20, 2025: wow, this is really, really hard to sort out -- the "In-N-Out Burger story." I can go either way on this story. This is a great example when two "opposing" opinions can both be correct. 

So at 10:07 a.m. Sunday morning where do I stand on this issue? From a purely superficial business case review -- and very, very, very superficial -- I am quite impressed that the CEO of and heiress to In-N-Out Burger has decided to expand eastward, regardless of all the associated "political baggage." She is in good company. Larry Ellison announced in April, 2024, that he was moving Oracle's headquarters from Texas to Nashville. That move has not been completed, but is apparently underway, in a "measured" process.

July 20, 2025: I first posted this story yesterday -- with regard to "In-N-Out Burger moving out of California." The headline was misleading, as noted in the original post. In addition, there were other concerning issues. So I took the original post down, put it in draft, and did some more checking.

As far as I can tell, neither the NYTimes nor The Wall Street Journal has posted this story. I find that very strange, unless this is not a big story financially, and it has more to do with politics, right-wing reporting, religious and/or cult issues than California's economy. 

So, I was curious. 

The meme is that California's economy is the 8th largest economy in the world based on GDP. 

Note: there's a lot of disparity in figures below. This is because:

• measuring GDP is difficult
• numerous agencies estimate global GDP figures and come up with different numbers
• sources often fail to state, or at least make clear, whether their figures are nominal GDP or real GDP
• sources are not comparing apples to apples, or oranges to oranges
  
• however, having said all that, the available information suggests:
• California's economy is resilient, perhaps even surging compared to Covid some years ago
  
• it is generally considered that nominal GDP numbers put California's economy in fourth place globally, surpassing Japan the past year (possibly as early as 2024; possibly no earlier than 2025)
  
• however, high costs in California place California 11th or 12th globally when real GDP is compared.

So, it depends on who is measuring what and almost anyone can find data to support their argument. 

My 30-second soundbite: 

California's economy is resilient, has surged recently, and has moved up in global rankings, but much of that is due to nominal GDP (due to inflation, high costs, especially the high cost of gasoline). Due to those high costs, California's economy may be dropping in the global rankings based on real GDP. 

Global rankings comparing Japan and California are affected greatly by "purchasing power" of their currency. It appears Japanese citizens are finding prices that their prices have held still/remain flat, possibly coming down a bit while California residents are without question seeing higher costs, particularly with regard to gasoline, housing, and perhaps food.  

[Important story not being told: of all the states, the state most affected by tariffs on Japan is California, and among all the tariff talk across the US, Japanese tariffs my be the worse (or at least second to tariffs on China).

Some background supporting the above data points:

According to ChatGPT: in fact, California is now the fourth largest economy in the world, having passed Japan

• California: firmly among the global top four, not barely but firmly
• as of April 2025, California's nominal GDP reached approximately $4.1 trillion, surpassing Japan ($4.02 trillion) and ranking 4th in the world, just behind the US, China, and Germany
• nominal: California is 4th-largest economy in the world
• real GDP: $3.37T
  
• for several years, it had held steady as the 5th-largest, behind the US, China, Germany, and Japan
• California's economic engine is powered by diversified sectors: from tech and entertainment to agriculture and finance, plus trade via major ports
• however, high costs and inequality mean that when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), things are markedly different
  
• California might rank closer to 11th or 12th, reflecting the impact of living costs
• Texas: again, based on nominal GDP, ranks 8th globally, ahead of Canada and Russia
• Texas is also notable as the top US exporter for over two decades
• New York State: roughly 9th - 11th largest

However, when doing other searches, one finds, unstated, but probably nominal:

• Japan's GPD over the past five years:
• 2019: $5.18T
• 2020: $5.056T
• 2021: $5.035T
• 2022: $4.26T
• 2023: $4.21T 
• 2024 (projection): $4.20T

California's nominal GDP over the past five years:

• 2020: $3.077T
• 2021: $3.424T
• 2022: $3.660T
• 2023: $3.879T
• 2024 $4.104T -- this leap in 2024 resulted in California overtaking Japan to become the 4th-largest economy in the world.

California's real GDP over the past five years:, unstated, but looks like real GDP:

• 2020: $2.933T
• 2021: $3.154T
• 2022: $3.184T
• 2023: $3.249T
• 2024: $3.365T -- strong 2024 increase, a significant 3.5% jump brought California's GDP to its highest level to date

Comments:

• real GDP measures true expansion in production, not just price increases
• for 2024, the 3.6% GDP growh highlights genuine economic resilience --impressive to the largest US state ecoomy

Original Post

Lots of stuff being written. Lots of questions so I am only going to post the links for now. I can't find the story in The New York Times or The Wall Street Journal yet. Which suggests their 20-something journalists are trying to get the "full story" and then spin it to meet their editors' approval(s).

I'm always careful when I see headlines in the New York Post.

The best source? A chatbot. I use ChatGPT.

 Lynsi Snyder has really done her homework. 

To a reader who alerted me to this development, I wrote (among much more): 

Of the five obvious choices (Utah, Texas, Tennessee, North Carolina, or Florida), I would agree that Tennessee is the best choice.

Having said that, I prefer the DFW area. I think Ms Snyder would have preferred the DFW area to the Nashville metropolitan area, but in the big scheme of things, it doesn't matter. 

All things being equal (job, school, quality of life) the best way to make this type of decision: listen to local evening news (not the national news, but the network's "local" evening news for one month). Let's say, I'm given the opportunity for the same job, the same quality of schools for the kids, and the same house of my dreams among five different geographic locations, where would I move:

• if the local news is mostly related to crime, probably not one's first choice
• if the local news is mostly related to entertainment, the geographic location probably moves to the top slot; but, most important:
• the daily weather report in January and in August.

The center of Franklin, TN, is 30 minutes south of Vanderbilt University on the south side of Nashville. 

Prompt for ChatGPT: 

What can you tell me about Franklin, Tennessee, with regard to how fast it is growing and whether is is considered the place to move to if moving to the Nashville, Tennessee, area?

Six New Permits -- Friday, July 18, 2025

Locator: 48785B.

 ******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $67.34.

Active rigs: 28.

Six new permits, #42137 - #42142, inclusive:

• Operators: XTO (3); Slawson (3)
• Fields: Grinnell; Big Bend

• Comments:


• XTO has permits for three GBU Sophia Federal wells in Grinnell oil field:
• 42137, conf, XTO, GBU Sopia Federal 44X-10A-S; Grinnell, SESE 10-154-96, 
• to be sited 912 FSL 560 FEL;
• 42138, conf, XTO, GBU Sophia Federal 44X-10E-S, Grinnell, SESE 10-154-96, 
• to be sited 912 FSL 530 FEL;
• 42139, conf, XTO, GBU Sophia Federal 44X-10B-S, Grinnell, SESE 10-154-96, 
• to be sited 912 FSL 500 FEL;

• Slawson has permits for three Shad Rap Federal wells, Big Bend oil field:
• 42140, loc, Slawson, Shad Rap Federal 2-2-3H, Big Bend, lot 1, section 2-151-91, 
• to be sited 335 FNL 459 FEL;
• 42141, loc, Slawson, Shad Rap Federal 5-2-3H, Big Bend, lot 1, section 2-151-91, 
• to be sited 335 FNL 409 FEL;
• 42142, loc, Slawson, Shad Rap Federal 6-2-3H, Big Bend, lot 1, section 2-151-91, 
• to be sited 335 FNL 359 FEL;


North Dakota's Top Energy Stories -- Quick Connects -- Alison Ritter -- July 18, 2025

Locator: 48784B.

Tag: Geoff Simon Geoff Simon's Quick Connects Alison Ritter

From ndenergy.org:

• Local petroleum engineer weighs in on oil and gas legislation -- McKenzie County Farmer

• Wyoming's first new coal mine in decades set to extract rare earth metals -- KX News

• Trump's spending bill expected to increase household energy costs in ND -- Argus Leader

• North Dakota MDU customers to cover data center-related legal cost -- Bismarck Tribune

• Legislature drafting new veto procedures following Armstrong housing money mishap -- Dickinson Press

• Husband of North Dakota Lt. Gov. Strinden dies after 17 month battle with cancer -- North Dakota Monitor

• PSC to hold hearing July 30 on proposal to construct NGL pipeline in Williams County -- Williston Herald

• Air travel saw a 10% increase in North Dakota for the first six months of 2025 -- Minot Daily News

• North Dakota Ethics Commission chooses new chair, discusses governor's qualms -- Bismarck Tribune

• North Dakota voting districts won't change as tribes seek US Supreme Court ruling -- Dickinson Press

• Michael Frye sworn in as new Minot Police Chief after being selected by city leaders -- KFYR - TV

• Southwest North Dakota weighs data center boom's burden on local ratepayers -- Dickinson Press

• New $6 million fire hall opens in Killdeer, enhancing rural emergency response -- Dickinson Press

• Williams County officials impose 6-ton axle weight limit on all gravel and chip seal roads -- KX News

• Divide closer to finalizing 2026 budget; commissioners feel good about levy, road repair -- The Journal

• A "grand beginning" at Williston Water World, city's newest attraction is now open -- Williston Herald

• Four North Dakota educators named as finalists for Teacher of the Year Award -- Bismarck Tribune

• Department of Public Instruction changes way it distributes federal Title I dollars -- Dickinson Press

• Nick Archuleta: North Dakota public schools and students need federal funds now -- Bismarck Tribune

• 120 educators set to attend 11th annual North Dakota Indian Education Summit -- Bismarck Tribune

• After-school programs for pair of Minot middle schools to close down starting August 23 -- KFYR - TV

• Contractor will provide school buses for Divide; board OKs municipal lease for HVAC work -- The Journal

• As local school enrollment grows, so does dependence on outdated portable classrooms -- KX News

• Williston Basin School Board meets to discuss status of several frozen federal grants -- KFYR - TV

• Tioga Public School students gearing up for year ahead; classes resume August 18 -- Williston Herald

• Chevron Closes Megadeal for Hess After Winning Exxon Arbitration -- Wall Street Journal

• Will Gen Z realize its future runs on fossil fuels before they limit its potential? -- The Daily Economy

• BLM continues geothermal energy support with large lease sales planned in next 2 months -- E&E News

• In this new era, American grid reliability and digital competitiveness are converging -- RealClearEnergy

• Proposed US rare earth higher pricing system is poised to challenge China's dominance -- Reuters

• Chris Wright: Climate change is a by-product of progress, not an existential crisis -- The Economist

• 800 mile Grain Belt Express renewable power transmission project under fire from farmers -- Reuters

• Trump touts $92B in private data center, energy investments in push to boost power supply -- The Hill

• Trump nominates new energy regulator LaCerte to replace Democrat he asked to step down -- The Hill

• Will the OBBB finally put an end to heavily subsidized wind and solar projects? -- Manhattan Contrarian

• U.S. without coal? Good luck with that, generating plants remain essential for reliability -- Coal Zoom

• Trillions spent on the climate agenda, while billions are sweltering without AC -- Issues and Insights

Roaring 20s -- July 18, 2025

Locator: 48783ROARINGTWENTIES.

Tag: roaring 20s roaring twenties

Three concurrent thoughts:

• in an interview this morning on CNBC, a talking head mentioned, in passing, the roaring 20s;
• look at the recent articles on $300,000 EVs; not out of the ordinary;
• median house price in Silicon Valley is now above $1.5 million.

Okay, a fourth:

• "Cary Grant's" house overlooking Los Angeles is on the market for $77.5 million.

Now, go back to this post, December 27, 2024, Donald Trump had just won the election:

Note: The Great Gatsy was published April 10, 1925. 

This might be as good a time as any to re-read a Reader's Digest version of the US economic boom, 1922 to 1929; and, then re-read The Great Gatsby (or watch the movie).

For me, one rendition of the Reader's Digest version of the US economic boom in the 20s: 

The postwar recession that had rocked [William Randolph] Hearst's business empire and made life so difficult for [his accountant] Jim Moore, who had to pay the bills -- was as short-lived as it had been severe.

By 1922, the American economy had embarked upon an extraordinary seven-year growth cycle. 

The business boom was stimulated by the beneficent tax policy that President Warren Harding's secretary of the treasury, the Pittsburgh industrialist Andrew Mellon, shepherded through a Republican-dominated Congress. 

Maximum tax rates for individuals were reduced from a wartime high of 77 percent to 24 percent, excess profits taxes were abolished, and lower rates were set for capital gains. Hearst benefited additionally when Secretary Mellon's appointees at the Income Tax Bureau reduced his tax liabilities for the war by by $1,737,097. 

Taking full advantage of the economic boom and Republican tax policies, Hearst went on a buying spree... two evening papers and a morning paper ... another evening paper in 1922 ... and then started three new dailies ...

Hearst, who never paid cash for anything, borrowed recklessly to make each of these purchases. by the end of 1922, he had exhausted his working capital to pay off existing debt obligations and was still a half million dollars short of meeting them all.

If you had not guessed, that was from The Chief: The Life of William Randolph Hearst, David Nasaw, c. 2000, p. 315. 

Are you still with me? 

I don't know if one can find some comparison with World War I from which most western countries were still recoving and a) the 12-day Israeli-Iran war; and, b) the Ukraine-Putin war? 

That comment about the expensive EV above. From June 28, 2025, just last month:

First, this morning we had the story of GM Cadillac Celestiq:

Link here.

Earlier, we had this: the starting price for a new Range Rover is around $107,400.  Range 300 miles.

Prices can increase significantly depending on the trim level, wheelbase, and options chosen. For example, the Range Rover SV can start at $209,000 for a standard wheelbase and go up to $234,000 for a long wheelbase. 

And now this: link here.

I'm not looking for these stories. They pop up on my various feeds and seem to be associated with the sixth industrial revolution, and stories about making America great again.

Then, "combine" these stories with the $50-million Bezos wedding and one starts to get another feeling.... the gilded age, the roaring 20's. Not the 1920s -- the great Jay Gatsby -- but the gay (and literally, in some cases, really "gay") 20s, but this time, the 2020s.

And million-dollar bonuses for software engineers.

Back to today: CNBC talking heads tell us this is a bad economy. Say what? GDP likely to come in above 2.5%; headline inflation having dropped from 9.5% to 2.5%; full employment; a president who wants to cut taxes; and pressure for the Fed to cut rates.

Sara Eisen reminded us that just a few months ago (early April?) there was talk of a recession. Now, no such talk, she says. No talk of a recession.

Headlines We May Get To Someday -- July 18, 2025

Locator: 48782HEADLINES.

I have these articles in the queue -- these are going to be a lot of fun to read. 

But first, some business:  

Barron's is reporting a risk of a short squeeze with Intel. For traders, this could be an incredible opportunity. Link here. Intel is the most shorted stock among the well-known tech names. 

The second article with regard to business: taxes on unrealized capital gains is coming to a country near you. Link here. As long as Trump is in office, this isn't going to happen. We talked about this before. There is an exception in this country, the US, where unrealized capital gains are taxed with no exceptions. 

Okay, now for the fun articles:

• how Sam Altman outfoxed Elon Musk to become Trump's AI buddy; link here.
• the push to make tiny homes in backyards easier to finance; link here.
• new acronym: ADU -- accessory dwelling unit. We've talked about this before, also.
• by far the best, and this kind of article is so much better digitally than in the hard copy: 
• Cary Grant's house on the market; actually, it's his widow's house on the market, his fifth wife. Link here. 
• I don't think Cary Grant ever lived in this house, based on a quick reading of the article. 
• if I were a multi-billionaire with a billion dollars in cash, I would be willing to overpay for this house, currently on the market for about $75 million -- the view alone is worth a million dollars per exterior window.
• from AI: 
• Barbara Harris, not Jaynes, was the name of Cary Grant's fifth and final wife. She was 30 years old when they married in 1981, while Grant was 77. They remained married until his death in 1986. After Grant's passing, Barbara Harris inherited his estate and split the fortune with his daughter, Jennifer. She later remarried in 2001 to David Jaynes. [Barbara Harris was born the same year I was born.]
  
• Jennifer was born to Dyan Cannon, Cary and Dyan were married in 1965; Jennifer was born in 1966. Jennifer would be 59 years old today.
  

I loved looking at the photos, and then thinking of that sad sap, Yuval Noah Harari. Yes, the latter lives rent-free in my mind.

Apple: mesmerizing cat ... link here: