Friday, January 24, 2025

Week 4: January 20, 2025 -- January 26, 2025

Locator: 44766TOPSTORIES.

Southern California Fires: continue to burn out of control; new fires almost daily. President Trump visits both North Carolina and southern California, Friday, January 24, 2025, day 4 of his presidency.

Hegspeth: confirmed with a JD-Vance-tie-breaking vote for SecDefense. Senator McConnell forces tie-breaking vote when he surprises everyone and votes "no" on Hegspeth.

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Top Stories

Geoff Simon's quick connects

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The First 100 Days
January 20, 2025 - April 30, 2025

First Week of Trump’s Presidency

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The Top Stories

Top story of the week:

  • fires continue: southern California
    • said to be worse in history
  • Trump schools local officials on politics during a disaster

Top international non-energy story:

  • Colombia initially refuses to take back Colombian criminals being deported by US; Trump hits Colombia with tariffs, visas; Colombia president caves; will take back his Colombian criminals on Colombian presidential plane.

Top international energy story:

  • WTI drops below $75 based on Trump's promises, goals, policies -- "drill, baby, drill"

Top national non-energy story:

  • Trump stories continue to dominate political stories

Top national energy story:

  • Hegspeth confirmed as SecDefense

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

  • Basin Electric announces plan to build 1,470-megawatt generation facility in western North Dakota
  • to cost $4 billion

Hegspetch CONFIRMED -- Tie-Breaking Vote By JD Vance -- Mitch McConnell Votes "No" On Hegspeth? -- Noem Confirmed -- DHS -- Updated January 25, 2025

Locator: 44766TRUMP.

 Updates 

Saturday, January 25, 2025: great op-ed in Fox this morning: https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/david-marcus-gop-trio-missed-whole-point-secretary-defense-pete-hegseth.

Saturday, January 25, 2025: in rare weekend vote, Kristi Noem confirmed as Secretary, Department of Homeland Security. 

It looks like SD Senator John Thune surprised everyone and held an early vote on Kristi Noem -- easily won -- many Democrats broke rank to vote for Noem. I believe the vote was 59 - 34, which is a landslide when you think about it. Link here to NPR.  I used to worry about "qualifications" for all these presidential appointments.
No longer. After Biden's appointments over the past four years it dawned on me, these appointments, like ambassador appointees, are nothing but political figureheads and a reward for supporting the president with expectations that support will continue.
With regard to qualifications, the bar was as low as it could get with the nominations of Pete Buttigieg, Jennifer Granholm, and Sonja Sotomayor (to just name the most obvious) in previous administrations.
This all became clear to me when reading hysterical social media comments that said these appointees would not know how to run large organizations, and that social security checks would not go out, military pay checks would be delayed, and Medicare payments would stop. LOL. The 20-year and 30-year bureaucrats manage the mundane activities and most of it is on "automatic pilot." In fact, the departments probably run more smoothly with the "acting director" in charge.

9:49 p.m. CT: now that I've had a few minutes to absorb all of this and watching Senator Warren on the US Senate floor during the vote, it is clearly one of the worst days ever for the Democrats, if they are being honest with themselves. 

President Trump schooled the Democrats in control of California while Los Angeles burns, and then his most controversial nominee is confirmed.
Two of Trump's nominees may not get confirmed but I don't find RFK, Jr or Tulsi Gabbard controversial. They are non-entities.
But Hegspeth, incredibly [fill in the blank] .... and ... yet he is confirmed. Even when the "old man" -- Mitch McConnell votes against Hegspeth.
This was a terrible, terrible day for the Democrats; Trump had one of his many best days.
Los Angeles is not burning because of protests against Trump or civil rights or George Floyd (as predicted) but rather because of incredible ineptness by the folks who have ruled California for decades.
It's too bad Reagan wasn't here to see this; he would have predicted all this. Donald Trump knows more about Los Angeles than most Americans but he is not a native.

9:05 p.m. CT: I just checked The Hill. I must have been watching a tape-delay by just a few minutes. JD Vance casts vote to break the tie. Hegspeth confirmed. Link here.

My hunch: Mitch McConnell knew exactly what he was doing, as did everyone else.
I wonder if JD Vance would have shown up had a tie-breaking vote not been necessary.

Rumsfeld under Gerald Ford, at 43, was the youngest to be nominated / confirmed. Hegspeth is 44. 

9:02 p.m. CT: JD Vance just showed up.

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Original Note

At least that's what I heard, very clearly, and ran the tape again to confirm. Yes, that's accurate: Mitch McConnell voted no. Being reported by and confirmed by The Hill. Either he knows that his vote will not sink Hegspeth or he knows it will. Mitch McConnell is probably the smartest politician in the room. 

According to the same source: 

Hegseth is expected to be confirmed. GOP Sens. Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) and Susan Collins (Maine) were the only Republicans to vote against him in Thursday’s procedural vote. Hegseth can afford three GOP defections if all Democrats vote “no.”

Was the third “no” vote McConnell's? Will that be the last of three defections by the GOP?  If this holds, this suggests to me that at least two others (not including Hegspeth) will not be confirmed: RFK, Jr.,  (HHS) and Tulsi Gabbard (Director, National Intelligence). The first one is always the hardest.

Only two Republicans in the vote yesterday voted NOT to proceed with the vote: Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski. 

Once having voted, I'm not sure if senators can change their votes. Yes, they can. See this link. Is the master of politics playing games? I still don't see JD Vance on the floor (8:39 p.m. CT). I think voting started around 8:00 p.m. CT. Wow, there sure is a lot of standing around, nothing being done.

It must be getting near the end. More and more US senators up and about, milling around near the front of the room. 

I don't see JD Vance in the room.

Day 4: President Trump Visits North Carolina (Post Hurricane) And Los Angeles (County And City Fires) -- Day 4 -- January 24, 2025

Locator: 44765TRUMP.

Trump "schooled" the politicians in North Carolina and southern California. 

Not since Ronald Reagan have I seen such a performance by a politician, and this was a president. Absolutely amazing. Everyone knows how Biden would have done.

WTI: Below $75 -- Oasis With Six New Permits In Williams County -- January 24, 2025

Locator: 44764B.

Politics: President Trump's nominee for SecDef -- will be voted on tonight -- maybe within the next few hours. If confirmed, will be the last of Trump's most consequential national security team members to be confirmed. Huge implications for GOP senators if nominee not approved. Later:

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $74.66.

Active rigs: 33.

Six new permits, #41543 - #41548, inclusive:

  • Operator: Oasis:
  • Fields: Bull Butte (Williams); Strandahl (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Oasis has permits for three Phoenix wells and three Ellis wells, all NWNE 17-156-102, 
      • to be sited 548 FNL and 2203 / 2368 FEL;

Permit modification approved:

  • 36276, Enerplus, Lemur 148-94-03B-10H-LL. Previously 1280-acre spacing; now six-section spacing, 3840-acre spacing.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 41030, 906, Petro-Hunt, State 153-95-17B-16-2H,

Trump Suggests Eliminating FEMA -- January 24, 2025

Locator: 44763TRUMP.

FEMA: brilliant. FEMA funds would go directly from the US government to the state. The state, not FEMA would manage the emergency recovery efforts in their individual states. Absolutely brilliant.

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The Book Page

I didn't catch it until today. The author of the "Paradise" essay in the December 23, 2024, issue of The New Yorker was Merve Emre. I have not read the essay; I can't wait to read it. It will likely be worth the price of the annual subscription. The work of interest reviewed by Emre? John Milton's Paradise Lost.