Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Themes -- 2026

Locator: 48601THEMES.

Last post: January 20, 2026. New updates will be in "Themes -- 2027." 

First posted: October 16, 2024

Energy

Pivot from natural gas to nuclear: all hat, no cattle.

US natural gas: stronger than ever.

Sixth Industrial Revolution

 

Second Year of New Administration

Geopolitics

EVs 

This will be a watershed year for EVs.

 

Lucid Announces A Public Offering Of 262.4 Million Shares Of Common Stock; Saudi PIF Will Invest An Additional 375 Million Shares To Maintain Its 58.8% Ownership In Lucid -- October 16, 2024

Locator: 48600LUCID.

Link here.

Immediately after the announcement, after-hours, the stock dropped almost 14%. 

The 375 million shares represents about eleven percent of the current number of shares outstanding. It is common for companies to issue 10% new shares in similar situations.

#1 reason for de-listing on the NASDAQ: when the share price drops below $1 / share for 30 consecutive trading days.

Ticker:

Local Walmart To Be First Digital-First Walmart In The US -- Opens Today -- October 16, 2024

Locator: 48599WALMART.

Walmart: we have a Costco membership and an Amazon Prime membership and we've never seen a need for a Sam's Club membership. I may reconsider for one year. From our local neighborhood flyer:

Nearly two years after a tornado damaged Sam’s Club, doors will be open at the wholesale club starting on October 16, 2024. 
This Sam’s Club -- just down the street from us -- will be the first in the country without any registers or cashiers, allowing customers to use their app’s scan and go feature to shop.
The Grapevine location will feature many technology features not in other stores, being the first digital-first store ... that includes a robot that can make 190 pizzas in an hour order custom-made sushi in the app and an e-commerce order area that is four times larger than any other Sam’s Club store.
$50 / year. Yeah, gonna join. At least for a year. Gotta see the robot. Plus all the other benefits. Truly amazing. $50 / year = $1 / week.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

From a reader, thank you: Exxon looking to sell some non-performing, non-operated Bakken assets.  XOM (via XTO?) has about 100,000 boepd from the Bakken. Link here. 49,000 acres. $500,000. $10,204 / acre.

WTI: $70.39.

Active rigs: 40.

Five new permits, #41248 - #41252, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Field: Alkali Creek (Mountrail County)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for four more Thronson FIU wells and another Sorenson FIU well, NWNE 28-154-98, 
      • to be sited between 280 FNL and 369 FNL and between 2000 FEL and 1908 FEL;

One permit was canceled:

  • 39787, PNC, Silver Hill Energy, Casey # 159-94-11-23-3MBHX, Burke County;

Two producing wells (DUCs) were reported to be completed:

  • 40341, 1,617, EOG, Liberty LR 133-2629H, Mountrail County;
  • 40342, 1,304, EOG, Liberty LR 134-2629H, Mountrail County;

Two wells of interest are off-line:

  • 20255, 892, EOG, Liberty LR 15-26H, t4/12; cum 427K 4/24;
  • 20254, 892, EOG, Liberty LR 20-26H, t4/12; cum 396K 4/24;

Boeing And Airbus -- October 16, 2024

Locator: 48598MUSK.

Boeing: machinists still on strike and no meetings even scheduled. Boeing: an absolute debacle. Just a hair's breadth away from "junk status." Machinists strike is costing the company $1 billion / month. Strike at 33 days and will go into November.  Some feel there's no way the machinists will see their demands met with the current financial situation Boeing is in. Waiting for government bailout? BA market cap around $90 billion -- Buffett could write a check and buy the company.

Airbus: but look at this. Link here.

 This just blows me away. From the linked article:

Airbus is cutting up to 2,500 workers from its struggling defense and space division as the European aerospace giant battles with program delays, increased costs and competition from the likes of Elon Musk’s SpaceX.
The company on Wednesday said the cuts were part of a restructuring at the division, which makes satellites and spacecraft to jet fighters and drones. The cuts represent about 7% of the roughly 35,500 workers employed at the unit, according to its latest annual report.

The CEO could not make it plainer:

Airbus has struggled to improve the fortunes of its space and defense division for years against a backdrop of rapid technological advancements (SpaceX), limited government spending and growing competition from the likes of SpaceX in the market for satellites and spacecraft.
“A fast changing and very challenging business context…requires us to become faster, leaner and more competitive,” said Michael Schoellhorn, head of Airbus’s defense and space unit.
Airbus in 2023 took a 600 million euro, roughly $650 million, charge against the division. In July this year it booked a separate 989 million euro charge after reassessing the timelines and costs associated with a range of telecommunication, navigation and space observation programs (SpaceX).
Chief Executive Guillaume Faury said at the time that the company was contending with greater competition from “some disruptive new players, and in particular, one disruptive new player.” SpaceX.

Amazing.

Cramer's First Hour, Part 5 -- October 16, 2024

Locator: 48597CRAMER.

Cramer's first hour: a mix of facts, factoids, opinions from various sources -- often not cited -- while listening to Cramer's first hour on CNBC.   

Definitions:

  • hard landing: Fed goes back to raising rates, time line -- through end of 2025
  • no landing: Fed -- no more rate changes in 2024 / 2025
  • soft landing: Fed continues to drop rates, time line -- through end of 2025

The Sara Eisen hour (no pun intended, but I may use it from now on -- LOL). 

Wow, she is really "optimistic" this morning. How much better the consumer is feeling, and doing so well. Many charts, started with "relief at the pump." Says she had more charts but had to stop at some point. $Gasoline a year ago, $3.60. Today, $3.20. Is this CNBC starting to show their cards with regard to the presidential election? 

MS: among many investment banks, reported better-than-expected 3Q24 results and shares jump.

Interest rates: talked with an extended family member last night. 

Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980); 50 years old (or approaching 50). Says he never expects to see interest rates below 4% again in his lifetime. Not good, bad, simply an observation. The mortgage on his house? 2.8%. 

Vistra: on the way home from Farmer's Branch, TX, passed this company's headquarters in Irving, TX. I think it was on TX-121 north. Ticker:


Wiki, note how "old" this company is:


This is why I'm recommending to the grandchildren when it comes to investing, stick with the professionals and mom-and-pop investors shouldn't be doing their own stock picking. 

Kairos: private company. Who is going to buy it? On another note, the Google-Kairos press release, link here. 500 MW of new energy. Financial details not provided. Perhaps this will provide some estimates:

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia.