A "Goldilocks" Economy? March 27, 2023

Choosing a financial advisor: link here.

Feelings: how one feels about the economy often affected by the source of the news. Link here. For me with regard to investing, I find myself almost in a "goldilocks" environment.

GDPNow: link here, previously posted:

COP: becomes operator at Australia Pacific LNG export terminal.

Millennials: vacations -- link here. This puts the cost of a Disneyland vacation in perspective.

Demographics:

• our older daughter, a generation Xer: born in 1979
• our younger daughter, a millinnial: born in 1983

Lofty: what a great "pun." LOL. From The Los Angeles Times top stories today:

Palm Reading -- Amazon Style -- March 27, 2023

Updates

Later, 11:03 p.m. CT: The Verge, September 29, 2020.  

Original Post

This is really, really clever. Something offered by Amazon of which I was completely unaware. 

I stumbled upon the scheme in a CNBC story on Panera Bread, one of our many favorite restaurants even if we don't go out much any more.

The other day I went to Target but forgot to take my wallet. No problem. ApplePay on my smartphone.

But what if I happen to forget both my wallet and telephone? 

No problem. "Palm reading."

Here's the Panera story: pay with your palm!

If you haven't heard of Amazon One, and I had not, here's the Amazon One site: three-steps to reading your palm.

This is very, very clever. To set up your plan, you need to visit a retailer who accepts Amazon One / palm reading. Once you have signed up online, one then visits Panera, for example, and by making a purchase there, you've set up "palm reading."

So, today, I started the process. I clicked on the first of three steps. I was brought to a new page that had four of my most-used credit cards already pre-loaded. Amazing. I had never seen this site, never used this site, nothing, nada, nil. 

And there it was, pre-loaded with four of my most-used credit cards from which I was to select one and continue the process. The four cards were mine; they were not "examples." All four had my correct credit card account number.

So, three big stories here:

• Amazon: 
• financial institutions collect and maintain a lot more information of which you are probably unaware;
• Amazon is as much a financial institution as a bookseller
• Amazon continues to act more and more like a bank without being a bank
• "palm reading" itself:
• remember, when we thought the retinal scan or facial recognition was going to be the way we did this?
• it eliminates the facial recognition issue; no one can possibly legitimately be fearful of "palm recognition"; it also gets away from "fingerprinting" which seems to scare a lot of folks;
• also, what could be easier? "Everybody" already knows "talk to the hand." Much simpler than retinal scanning or even finger-touch -- 
• and: no germs in this age of Covid-19 -- the process is entirely contactless.
  
• partners:
• to complete the process, one is required to visit a retailer that accepts Amazon One "palm reading." 
• what better way for Amazon to "partner" with yet another retailer than to require you to finish the process with another retail partner?
  

Right now, I assume Amazon One is a (social) experiement; it may or may not succeed, but Amazon has a lot of patience.

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Happy Spring

WTI Breaks $70; Natural Gas Could Drop Below $2.00; 47 Active Rigs; Nine Wells Coming Off Confidential List Over Weekend -- March 27, 2023

Palm reading. Amazon style.

Collapse: of housing trust in Los Angeles.

Vacations: millennials.

COP: Australia.

A "goldilocks" economy? Link here.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 47 (recent high).

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $70.46.

Natural gas: $2.099.

Tuesday, March 28, 2023: 86 for the month: 250 for the quarter, 250 for the year
39221, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 4-35-26-159N-100W-MBH-LL,
39194, conf, CLR, Allen 7-17H,

Monday, March 27, 2023: 84 for the month: 248 for the quarter, 248 for the year
39223, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Samples 5-35-26-159N-100W-MBH-LL,
39195, conf, CLR, Allen 8-17HSL,
38441, conf, Hess, EN-Sable-157-93-3534H-4,
9302 (no typo), conf,  Empire North Dakota LLC, Waddle 7-29,

Sunday, March 26, 2023: 80 for the month: 244 for the quarter, 244 for the year
39220, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Charlotte Elizabeth 2-34-27-159N-100W-MBH,
39196, conf, CLR, Boe State 5-16H,

Saturday, March 25, 2023: 78 for the month: 242 for the quarter, 242 for the year
39219, conf, Crescent Point, CPEUSC Charlotte Elizabeth 34-27-159N-100W-MBH,
39197, conf, CLR, Boe State 6-16H,
30860, conf, BR, Rollacleetwood 11-27MBH ULW,

RBN Energy: US E&Ps temper 2023 CAPEX increases after aggressive late-2022 investment spurt.

In marking the third anniversary of COVID’s onset, the Washington Post detailed a study that showed most of us are already shedding the virus-impacted memories of that tedious and often traumatic time to concentrate on looking ahead — a trait scientists label “future-oriented positivity bias.” That transition was clearly evident in the 2022 investment decisions of U.S. E&Ps as the capex budgets of the 42 companies we monitor, pared to the bone during the pandemic, expanded through last year from initial guidance of a 24% increase over 2021 to a final 54% reported increase for the full year. They increased production by 9% year-over-year, but producers haven’t forgotten fiscal discipline or a focus on cash flow generation. In today’s RBN blog, we analyze 2023 capital budgets that generally sustain the pace of Q4 2022 spending and eschew additional increases in a lower commodity price environment.

An Old XTO Well Abandoned Back In 2020 Now Back On Staus And Looking Good -- March 26, 2023

The well, previous note, January 1, 2022 --

January 1, 2022: #26312-->AB. Back on line 11/22 and now on A status.

 The well:

• 26312, 1,350, XTO, Kanyer Federal 11X-15B, Grinnell, t5/14; cum 136K 1/23;

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	1199	1826	960	5550	3417	1838
BAKKEN	12-2022	31	1764	1591	1192	8169	3377	4529
BAKKEN	11-2022	11	1291	583	475	1811	1707	0
BAKKEN	10-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2021	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2021	0	0	3	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2021	4	5	6	5	33	0	31
BAKKEN	12-2020	5	7	2	6	42	0	40
BAKKEN	11-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2020	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2020	0	0	218	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2020	7	12	97	19	70	9	59
BAKKEN	4-2020	22	595	592	810	2438	2298	0
BAKKEN	3-2020	31	538	523	839	3235	2941	0
BAKKEN	2-2020	28	587	599	496	2865	2600	0
BAKKEN	1-2020	31	646	582	620	3098	2810	0
BAKKEN	12-2019	31	538	659	792	3501	3216	0
BAKKEN	11-2019	30	674	680	518	3523	2178	1092
BAKKEN	10-2019	31	680	746	534	3573	3127	159

Jump In Production -- An Old XTO FBIR Baker Well -- March 26, 2023

The well:

• 23395, 1,158, XTO, FBIR Baker 34X-25E, , t1/13; cum 260K 9/21; was taken off line 9/21; remains off line as of 1/22; back on line 10/22:
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	1-2023	31	3196	3206	6302	1064	1020	13
BAKKEN	12-2022	20	3718	3858	5298	2125	2063	15
BAKKEN	11-2022	24	9771	9874	9648	6417	6004	285
BAKKEN	10-2022	23	10838	10497	14545	6951	6825	5
BAKKEN	9-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2022	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2022	0	0	20	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2021	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2021	4	118	317	68	83	81	0
BAKKEN	8-2021	31	2297	2243	2698	1588	1553	15
BAKKEN	7-2021	31	2244	2299	2618	1403	1355	31
BAKKEN	6-2021	30	2283	2293	2626	1307	1263	25