Sunday, December 11, 2022

Big Pharma Page -- December 11, 2022

Focus on Fracking has posted: http://focusonfracking.blogspot.com/2022/12/us-oil-supplies-now-at-36-year-low.html.

Energy: the big energy story this week — Great Britain is freezing.

NASDAQ shufflinghttps://www.investors.com/news/rivian-globalfoundries-joining-nasdaq-100-index-apple-chipmaker-china-stocks-falling-off/.

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AMGN

Amgen is in advanced talks to buy Horizon Therapeutics. 

Sanofi dropped out of the running, announced earlier today; J&J had dropped out earlier, leaving only Amgen.

The takeover, valued at well over $20 billion, would mark the largest healthcare merger of the year. 

And, yes, Horizon Therapeutics, is publicly traded; ticker HZNP. It closed at $97.29 on Friday, December 9, 2022, but rose to $98.25 in after-hours trading. 

Story at The WSJ

The company is Nasdaq-listed, but based in Ireland and has operations in Dublin; Deerfield, IL; and, a new facility in Rockville, MD.

Winter Storm Update -- December 11, 2022

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The Book Page

At Amazon.

Mrs Paine's Garage: And the Murder of John F. Kenney, Thomas Mallon, November 10, 2003.

Area Under The Curve -- December 11, 2022

Locator: 43800B.

The area under the curve

What was the area under the curve? Glad you asked. 

The above is the "personal saving rate," somewhat related to "household wealth" which increased by $13.5 trillion for Americans during the pandemic.

Link here.

The "rich get richer."

In fact, "investors get richer."

So, what's the denominator? What is total American household wealth?

Also, from FRED:


Recent stock market losses and losses in the housing market have tempered these gains. I don't have a dog in the housing market fight, but I'm buying a lot of shares on the equity market at significantly depressed prices.

Chord Energy -- CHRD -- Devon Of The North? November, 2022

Don't let the fact that CLR  out-produces Chord Oil in the Bakken confuse you. The two companies have different operating styles.

Link here.

Peer-leading return of capital program:

  • 85% of FCF in 3Q22
  • expect 75% of FCF at current leverage levels

Pure-play Bakken:

  • 972,000 acres
  • 92% operated
  • 68% working interest



Breakeven Prices For New Shale Wells: $30. Oil Companies Supporting The Biden Mandate: No More Drilling -- December 11, 2022

I told a reader: 

By the way, I don't know if I will bother to post it or not, but Biden's energy tsar, over the weekend, is telling shale operators it's their patriotic duty to drill more wells -- despite the Biden policy: "no more drilling." I guess the word he used was "un-American." 

For an administration that killed the Keystone XL; continues to ban drilling; and slow-rolls the industry on approving permits -- that's pretty rich -- calling guys like Harold Hamm, "un-American."

"Political posturing" and "talking to your base" have little to do with reality.

But this is the real reason by the Biden folks are so upset. 

First, one has to remember, the entire left wing loathes -- absolutely loathes -- Big Oil. There's only one thing they loathe more: every-day oil folks making more money while drilling fewer wells. LOL.

So, what's the real reason oil companies aren't drilling more? Certainly they're not listening to the Biden administration. LOL.

Here's why:

As to why they weren't drilling more, oil executives blamed Wall Street. Nearly 60% cited "investor pressure to maintain capital discipline" as the primary reason oil companies weren't drilling more despite skyrocketing prices, according to the Dallas Fed survey. Only 11% cited environmental, social or governance issues; 8% said they had difficulty getting financing; 15% cited other reasons. 

What price WTI to drill more [spoiler alert: $300]:

Asked what level the price of West Texas Intermediate oil would need to hit to get publicly traded oil and gas companies back into growth mode, 29% of executives said that their expansion plans weren't dependent on price. Another 9% named a price above $120 a gallon.

"Forty percent of respondents don't think that a price of $120 a barrel, which is very profitable from what we know about the marginal cost of shale production, is enough to increase output," said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics.

Investor pressure:

Many companies are choosing to enjoy their high profits rather than increase the supply of oil. That's despite the relatively low oil price they would need to turn a profit.
On a different Dallas Fed question, executives said oil prices between $23 and $38 a barrel, on average, would cover the cost of drilling new wells.

So, what's the real reason oil companies aren't drilling more? Certainly they're not listening to the Biden administration. LOL. Actually this is the irony:

Oil companies are so incredibly patriotic supporting Biden's policy: no more drilling.