Tuesday, May 24, 2022

The Carnage Among EVs Today -- May 24, 2022

The carnage is seen in the one-year chart, but, wow, it's amazing to look at the six-month charts of these EV car companies: RIVN, TSLA, GM, F, RIDE, NKLA, FS. These numbers were at the close:

  • F: down over 3% today; trading around $12.50.
  • GM: down 2% today; trading just above $35;
  • TSLA: down 7% today; trading at $628 today; five months ago: $1,200
  • RIVN: down 5%; closed below $27
  • RIDE: down almost 13%; drops well below $2 / share -- a share is now less than a bottle of "two-buck Chuck" out in California
  • NKLA: down 6% trading below $6 / share.
  • FSR: down 13%; trading below $10 / share.

Fisker, link here

My Favorite Chart -- May 24, 2022

Link here.


Bakken 5.0 -- Bakken Has Reached Maturity -- May 24, 2022

Oil wealth. Link here. WTI: $110.


Legacy Fund deposits
. Link here.

Here is the graphic with no notations:


Bakken formation reaches maturity. Link here. Archived. Key paragraphs:

Formation maturity is defined in the report as having a majority of operators dedicated to producing their acreage on a consistent and steady pace — but with the added caveat that foreseeable radical growth in production is "less than likely."

A typical Bakken oil well is expected to produce more than 30 years worth of oil, however, favorable economic conditions, enhanced oil recovery efforts and other factors can, and often do, extend the life of a well.

There are two oil refineries in North Dakota, one in Mandan and the one in Dickinson.

Marathon Oil Corporation processes Williston Basin crude oil into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heavy fuel oils and liquefied petroleum gas. Marathon purchased its Dickinson Refinery in 2018 from Andeavor. The refinery was the first greenfield diesel refinery to be built in the United States since the late 1970s, and has been online since May 2015.

It's A Wash -- Globally -- May 24, 2022

Kashagan oil field is tracked here and linked at the sidebar at the right.

Headline today: oil production halves at Kazakhstan's giant Kashagan field.

  • routine maintenance, if anything in Kazakhstan is routine;
    • start date: May 19, 2022
    • end date: August 3, 2022
  • OPEC+ quota:
    • 1.638 million bpd (May, 2022)
    • 1.85 million bpd (June, 2022)
  • actual production:
    • cut in half since early May (due to maintenance)
    • production will stop completely in June due to maintenance
  • I don't know what Kashagan was actually producing prior to May, but let's say it was about 1.5 million bpd
  • so, globally:
    • Kazakhstan's daily production dropping about 1.5 million bpd; and,
    • Biden's release from the US SPR: 1 million bpd.
      • Net: - 0.5 million bpd

I often make simple arithmetic errors, but I'm pretty sure 1.0 minus 1.5 is close to a minus 0.5.

Again, that SPR release was very prescient, very timely, very fortunate. 

Speaking of the SPR release, the "next" part of that 180 million-bbl release over six months was announced today:

  • again, this is a sale, not a "swap" which is the usual nature of things with regard to the SPR
  • specifics:
  • 39 million sour bbls
  • 1.1 million sweet bbls
  • total: 40.1 millioon bbls
  • delivery period for the sweet oil: June 21, 2022 - June 30, 2022
  • delivery period for the sour oil: July 1, 2022 - August 15, 2022 (slightly less than 1 million bopd)

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them.

WTI: pretty much unchanged.

Two New Permits; Six Wells Released From Confidential List; One DUC Reported As Completed -- May 24, 2022

Daily activity report via Chrome, Monday, May 23, 2022.

Active rigs: 39 or thereabouts.

Two new permits, #38972 - #38973, inclusive:

  • Operator: Sinclair
  • Field: Lone Butte (Dunn County)
  • Comments:
    • Sinclair has perrmits for two Harris Federal wells in NESE 31-147-97, 
      • to be sited 1843 FSL and 930 FEL, and 1839 FSL and 885 FEL

Six wells released from confidential list:

  • 38630, n/d, Eagle Operating, Willy Miranda-State 16-4, Foreman Butte, McKenzie,
  • 38622, n/d, Summit Carbon Solutions, Archie Erickson 2, wildcat, Mercer County,
  • 38608, n/d, CLR, Bang 11-4H1, Cedar Coulee, Dunn County,
  • 37183, n/d, Zavanna, Edgar 10-3 1H, Poe, McKenzie County,
  • 36518, n/d, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Austin 6-17-20-158N-99W-MBH, Williams County,
  • 36516, n/d, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Narcisse 6-8-5-158N-99W-MBH-LL, Ellisville, Williams County,

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 32428, 206, BR, Phantom Ship 3A UTFH, McKenzie County;