A Zavanna Nelson In Long Creek To Hit 500K Bbl Crude Oil Milestone In Next Month Or So -- February 21, 2022

The well:

• 20085, 825, Zavanna, Nelson 3-10 1H, Long Creek, 35 stages; 3.8 million lbs; t8/12; cum 471K 1/20; off-line many months; see much more about this well as this post; back on line, doing very well; cum 494K 8/21; 498K 12/21;
  

Back in 2015, showed a nice jump in production, which I expect to see again some day down the road:

BAKKEN	9-2016	28	8160	7403	8273	34615	32816	1382
BAKKEN	8-2016	31	8765	8395	11074	27714	22741	4511
BAKKEN	7-2016	31	17215	17162	21605	33331	29650	3219
BAKKEN	6-2016	30	9420	9269	9637	22967	22371	149
BAKKEN	5-2016	31	15837	14370	17403	35187	34014	711
BAKKEN	4-2016	29	16683	15886	18526	31586	31139	15
BAKKEN	3-2016	31	19193	18259	24989	31174	30710	2
BAKKEN	2-2016	29	13307	12750	22002	20544	20112	0
BAKKEN	1-2016	29	12623	12020	37849	18877	18080	365
BAKKEN	12-2015	31	11752	11580	46412	13108	12559	87
BAKKEN	11-2015	3	617	617	7064	1136	242	849
BAKKEN	10-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2015	1	28	28	18	15	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2015	17	11123	10643	3313	15682	14948	466
BAKKEN	5-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	3-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	2-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	1-2015	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	12-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	11-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	10-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	9-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	8-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	7-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	6-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	5-2014	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
BAKKEN	4-2014	20	2349	3447	1114	3035	1524	1198
BAKKEN	3-2014	31	4060	4059	2185	4665	3902	301
BAKKEN	2-2014	28	4752	4304	2356	7406	5711	1278
BAKKEN	1-2014	31	7741	8692	3450	20715	10475	9778

Suncor -- Full Year -- 2023E

I have never invested in Suncor, no plans to ever do so, but this financial statement simply blows me away. 

Link here.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Look at:

• dividend coverage
• free cash flow
• income
• crude oil as a percent of production
• net debt
  
• despite no pipelines

***********************
The Book Page

Reading is a more "shared" activity that I once realized.

But reading is "shared" differently than other "shared" activities. Reading is "shared" across time, across geography. It is more binding than other "shared" activities.

Reading is a "shared" activity that is done alone. 

Everything's Closed Today -- Except The Southern Border -- February 21, 2022

Chariots on fire: yes, that huge ship at sea that's on fire -- transporting EVs from Europe -- Porsches and Bentleys.

Frackers on fire: pushing into "once-dead" shale as oil nears $100 / bbl. WSJ.  

Saudi Aramco on fire: shares trading like a tech company. Up 5% today to an all-time high. In one day, market cap has increased by $100 billion; market cap at a record $2.13 trillion.

US housing market  on fire: Whoa that was fast. Housing units under construction are higher than May '06 and any time since '73. Population adjusted today ~matches 2006, right before the housing bust. 30-year mortgage rates are 4% v 2.625% in Sept. 

U-Haul on fire: with significantly higher energy costs in New England, north Atlantic, and west coast states, expect to see a lot of articles on U-Haul / United Van Line moves to US Gulf coast. Energy demand less and costs less. There's a reason folks move to Arizona. It's a dry heat.

****************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$91.52	2/21/2022	02/21/2021	02/21/2020	02/21/2019	02/21/2018
Active Rigs	33	15	54	66	55

Tuesday, February 22, 2022: 43 for the month, 98 for the quarter, 98 for the year

• 38149, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 14-5H,
• 38062, conf,  Hess, GO-Soine A-156-97-2932h_3,
• 37781, conf, Hess, EN-Rice_A-155-94-0310H-6,

Monday, February 21, 2022: 40 for the month, 95 for the quarter, 95 for the year

• 38148, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 13-5H1,

Sunday, February 20, 2022: 39 for the month, 94 for the quarter, 94 for the year

• 38147, conf, CLR, Flint Chips FIU 12-5H, 
• 37798, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 342-3BH,
• 37797, conf, Koda Resources, Stout 3410-2BH,

Saturday, February 19, 2022: 36 for the month, 91 for the quarter, 91 for the year

• 34062, conf, Enerplus, Recluse 149-92-32C-29H-TF1,    

RBN Energy: energy transition slams into energy reality -- school of energy, spring. 2022.

Focus On Fracking -- February 20, 2022

Link here. The lede:

• oil supplies at a 13-year low;
• oil + products supplies at a 7 1/2 year low;
• DUCs down 40% YoY, lowest since Jan 2014
• US oil supplies are at a 13-year low,
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 19-year low;
• total oil + products supplies at a 7 1/2-year low;
• distillate supplies are at 26-month low after refinery freeze offs;
• DUCs down 40% YoY and are lowest since Jan 2014 with DUCs in 4 basins at record lows;
• 5.0 month DUC backlog is lowest in 7 years;
• natural gas rigs rise most in 57 months

Bakken DUCs -- Most Recent Data -- Provided By A Reader -- February 20, 2022

Month/Year
Note: break between 2014 - 2017.

Bakken
	Drilled	Completed	DUC
Dec-13	--	--	570
Jan-14	178	143	605
Feb-14	210	158	657
Mar-14	224	218	663
Apr-14	217	207	673
May-14	226	208	691
Jun-14	236	225	702
Jul-14	250	243	709
Aug-14	226	207	728
Sep-14	256	232	752
Oct-14	186	243	695
Nov-14	209	202	702
Dec-14	224	194	732
Jan-17	62	52	781
Feb-17	51	58	774
Mar-17	78	71	781
Apr-17	78	104	755
May-17	94	82	767
Jun-17	76	105	738
Jul-17	95	103	730
Aug-17	99	110	719
Sep-17	98	97	720
Oct-17	104	110	714
Nov-17	93	86	721
Dec-17	77	65	733
Jan-18	107	72	768
Feb-18	74	74	768
Mar-18	95	90	773
Apr-18	109	110	772
May-18	124	131	765
Jun-18	108	118	755
Jul-18	134	155	734
Aug-18	108	138	704
Sep-18	108	122	690
Oct-18	120	118	692
Nov-18	110	99	703
Dec-18	108	70	741
Jan-19	120	71	790
Feb-19	108	56	842
Mar-19	111	110	843
Apr-19	118	112	849
May-19	127	127	849
Jun-19	118	149	818
Jul-19	122	122	818
Aug-19	122	144	796
Sep-19	110	88	818
Oct-19	116	108	826
Nov-19	96	88	834
Dec-19	94	86	842
Jan-20	99	98	843
Feb-20	94	100	837
Mar-20	94	108	823
Apr-20	69	33	859
May-20	33	14	878
Jun-20	18	11	885
Jul-20	18	22	881
Aug-20	19	27	873
Sep-20	18	51	840
Oct-20	19	41	818
Nov-20	20	31	807
Dec-20	20	50	777
Jan-21	20	41	756
Feb-21	19	26	749
Mar-21	25	47	727
Apr-21	27	52	702
May-21	29	68	663
Jun-21	31	52	642
Jul-21	32	62	612
Aug-21	39	66	585
Sep-21	41	76	550
Oct-21	42	71	521
Nov-21	43	73	491
Dec-21	46	73	464
Jan-22	46	73	437